Brexit

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  • edited April 2019

    Aslef, I know we can`t provide everything we currently import, but just a small swing to home grown, home produced would be a start. Surely from any perspective, the less miles something has to travel, has got to be a good thing.

    A small swing? Half the food we eat is imported from outside the UK, 30% from the EU.

    We import £11.1bn of fruit and veg, we export £1.2bn
    We import £6.7bn of meat, we export £1.8bn
    We import £3.9bn of cereals, we export £2.1m
    Dairy & eggs, £1.8bn out, £3.2bn in, fish £1.9bn out, £3.2bn in.

    The only categories we export more than we import is beverages, £7.4bn to £5.7bn, and that's mostly due to sales of Scotch whiskey.

    Some Brexiteers say we could import food from countries outside the EU which would mean more travel not less.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/07/uk-run-out-of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

    Aslef, your figures above are shocking. It doesn`t have to be this way though. Brexit should be seen as an opportunity, for British farmers, British producers and British manufacturing and ingenuity. Just because we have taken the easy (cheapest) route in the past doesn`t mean we have to continue. Failing that there are worse things to live on than salmon and scotch....................
  • edited April 2019
    British farmers rely on the handouts under the Common Agricultural Policy, the government have committed to matching the subsidies but only until 2024 after which nobody is quite sure.

    In order to be economically viable they'd have to increase their prices to a level whereby their businesses would be sustainable which would mean massive prices for the consumer.

    There's also the question of where farms get their workers from, they are currently reliant on EU migrants, some of who work seasonally then go back home.

    Unless we're going to reverse the shift of people into urban areas with a Pol Pot type cleansing of cities and a "return to the land" then this is how its going to be.
  • edited April 2019

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/07/uk-run-out-of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

    Aslef, your figures above are shocking. It doesn`t have to be this way though. Brexit should be seen as an opportunity, for British farmers, British producers and British manufacturing and ingenuity. Just because we have taken the easy (cheapest) route in the past doesn`t mean we have to continue. Failing that there are worse things to live on than salmon and scotch....................

    Unfortunately our manufacturing sector is non existent and will remain that way with China and India mass producing everything, which in or out the EU will not change that.

    As for British Farmers, we have had campaigns to buy local to support British Farmers, but when Supermarkets can blow the average butcher out the water. It just isn't going to happen, not to mention Farming in the UK barely produces enough food to feed London let alone the rest of the country.
  • So British farming and British manufacturing has all but died a death, and that`s how it must stay? So, where are all our youngsters going to work in the future? Uber, Amazon, Starbucks? Cos by the sound of it we don`t have any choice. I suppose the only guaranteed career path is undertaker, unless Amazon get into that and automate it.
  • edited April 2019

    So British farming and British manufacturing has all but died a death, and that`s how it must stay?

    You can't turn the clock back.

    The circumstances when British farming and British manufacturing were more flourishing than they are at present cannot be recreated. Not even by leaving the EU.

    The world is a different place now.

    There will be lots of opportunities for our youngsters in seasonal, low paid agricultural jobs like picking strawberries and lettuces.
  • It`s a different place, but is it a better place? And it is a serious question: What will our youngsters be doing for future employment?
  • edited April 2019
    It is a serious question.

    And do you think it will have abetter answer if we leave the EU?
  • Automation will take a lot of the jobs, manufacturing in general from a long term outlook and i reckon (25 - 35 years from now) will literally be gone and replaced by machines. The question on what jobs and opportunities that young people have will not be solved by trying to boost industries that are dwindling or set to be non existent in a generation.

    Its not about giving up its about preparing for what the future is likely to be. The UK will never compete with India / China in producing mass quantities and attempting to do so is futile. If the UK wants to prepare for tomorrows world it needs innovators and to cultivate for the climate ahead. Education is key. China and India will run into their own problems once they find out a large portion of their labour workforce is not needed due to automation. The UK needs to recognise this and get ahead of the curve.
  • Mrs G, yes, I think if we leave the EU we will need to re-focus our efforts. Yeold, agree with the above, and again I will re-iterate, I think we have more chance of getting ahead of the curve out of the EU. I want free trade, I want innovation and entrepreneurship, I want Britain ahead of the curve. You don`t get ahead of the curve weighed down by red tape, rules, regulations, restrictive practices. Have a look at the page I linked above to the EU website. It is an absolute nightmare of bureaucratic nonsense. Having said that, if our government fudge leaving, we may as well stay in the EU.
  • Manufacturing will probably return to the UK in a few years when China, South Korea and India see that wages are lower here in Europe's soon-to-be Third World country than in their own countries.
    What goes around comes around.
  • edited April 2019
    More innovation has come from collaboration between countries, its why the majority of scientists want us to be apart of the EU for cross purpose research. Not to mention some of the projects the UK is currently involved in is based around infrastructure and facilities in other EU countries and its highly unlikely we would be able to replicate all that infrastructure in this country let alone at a lower cost.
  • So British farming and British manufacturing has all but died a death, and that`s how it must stay?

    British farming is not enough to feed the UK population despite the fact that 70% of the UK is given over to agriculture. Manufacturing isn't going to expand unless someone is prepared to invest in it and at the moment that investment is going to Asia.

    I want free trade, I want innovation and entrepreneurship, I want Britain ahead of the curve. You don`t get ahead of the curve weighed down by red tape, rules, regulations, restrictive practices.

    Red tape, rules and regulations are what stop employers cutting workers' rights, reduce industrial accidents, forces industry to ensure they don't pollute the environment, keeps up food standards.

    Blair and Brown's "soft touch" on financial regulation allowed "innovation and entrepreneurship" in the City, as a consequence the UK suffered more from the recession in 2008 than France or Germany where regulations were stricter.

    The 1% would love to cut rules, regulations and red tape. Do you think Rees-Mogg wants Brexit to makes things better for the 99%?
  • You don`t get ahead of the curve weighed down by red tape, rules, regulations, restrictive practices.

    The UK has fought tooth and nail against implementing EU regs on improving air quality, for nearly a decade.

    Its own govt reports show that some 50,000 Britons die prematurely each year from illnesses associated with pollutants that these new regs are designed to reduce.

    You don't get ahead of the curve dragging around an oxygen tank so you can breath, either.
  • edited April 2019
    I'm going to slightly nervously poke my head above the parapet here.

    Point of order, re. UK's manufacturing. It's actually done okay. We have maintained its value and are still among the top 10 manufacturers in the world.

    What has happened is that the rest of the economy has grown much more, meaning manufacturing is now only just over 10% of the economy. Employment in it has reduced both relatively because of this and further because of automation. This is what gives the perception that manufacturing has faded away badly, because relatively speaking it has, but in absolute / real terms (i.e. even accounting for inflation), it's done fine really.

    With a 'Pop', he was gone again...
  • Aslef, Mrs G, I'm sorry, but these workers rights and green policies were being advocated by the Anarchists 150 years ago, the same Anarchists that were imprisoned and executed by the kind governments now passing these things into "law". Yeold, I'm all in favour of cooperation, cooperation is the predominant human trait, it doesn't take a bloated bureaucracy and EU dictats for humans to cooperate. I'm sure we'll get along quite nicely without Mr Juncker telling us the correct procedures. Aslef, the financial collapse was a failure of global capitalism, nothing to do with Blair or Brown.
  • Aslef, Mrs G, I'm sorry, but these workers rights and green policies were being advocated by the Anarchists 150 years ago, the same Anarchists that were imprisoned and executed by the kind governments now passing these things into "law".

    So what? How is that relevant to weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of leaving the EU?

    Does it matter what happened 150 years ago?

    If the protections are good, and we have evidence the UK govt won't enforce them but the EU will, isn't that a point in favour of EU membership?

  • Valiant, thanks for that. The UK was at the forefront of manufacturing, innovation, progressive policies, tolerance and acceptance. Britain is known for its sense of fair play. We have led the world at times in terms of healthcare and the welfare state. Our judgment has been coloured since Thatcher, very recent history. Don't let us think that Britain needs to be led, lectured by countries that have all been dominated by fascist dictators. Again fascist, authoritarian traits within France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Austria and eastern European countries are beginning to surface, Britain has never allowed the extreme right a foothold. I can't believe that people think we need to look to these countries for moral guidance. Now that our government has allowed brexit to fail I honestly think that the extreme right in this country will grow. People think that the brexit vote has emboldened the far right, given a half decent go at brexit and I think that the far right would have crawled back under their rocks. Parliaments gutless attempts at delivering brexit and failing miserably will come back to haunt them. The Tories and Labour have both failed their natural support, people will be looking for alternatives, ripe ground for the far right. I was hoping for a brexit that would deliver an outward looking progressive country. I think the failure to deliver brexit will cause more chaos than a "no deal".
  • valiant - interesting. Tell me more!

    Are there other ways of measuring it that give a less rosy picture?

    Eg, the % of manufacturing output that is consumed by the domestic market, and how much exported? What did it use to be, what is it now?

    I'm not sure what 'maintained its value' means and -fair enough -we are still in the top 10 (since when - over what period - what is the highest we have ever been) but what is the gap between the top and us, and how has this changed? A scale like that can only show so much of the picture, and I suspect it's a bit more complicated.....

  • The UK was at the forefront of manufacturing, innovation, progressive policies, tolerance and acceptance. Britain is known for its sense of fair play.

    Meaningless generalisations and cliches.

  • Mrs G, the EU is not the progressive panacea you are making it out to be. Try telling the yellow vests in France how protective the EU is. These issues are not new or fresh. People have been fighting for years for what should be basic, natural human rights. I am coming at this from a totally different angle, I personally want out of the EU because as an institution I think it is regressive, not progressive. I am not going to big up the EU for laws that should be basic common sense. I want out of the EU on (my) principle, and then we have a small chance of making this tiny piece of the globe a better place. If we don't leave, and I don't think we will, I really really hope parliament has a long hard look at how it functions and what this countries priorities are.
  • Mrs G, very harsh. A lot of thought went into that. Crushed.
  • Don't believe for one second the far-right would've been happy with a "no-deal" Brexit, or whichever form was acceptable, and then faded away. We all know Europeans were never their main target, just the easiest one to go for and stop entering, through Brexit. They would feel emboldened and then go for the others, the people they actually spend all their time talking about and attacking. The people who have been attacked before and after Brexit in the media and on the streets.

    They would have claimed that victory even if it wasn't their victory, even if it doesn't represent the rest of the people who voted to Leave. That doesn't mean people who want to leave shouldn't feel entitled having their wish delivered but I don't accept that everything now is empowering them and it would've all gone away if we had a no deal Brexit.

    I don't think appeasing fascists is a good idea.
  • Brexit is and never was about appeasing fascists. Failing to deliver brexit however will certainly stoke the embers. The far right have always been at the periphery of British politics, I think parliaments failure opens up potentially a fertile hunting ground amongst disaffected voters for the far right. It is the failure of neo liberal policies and the general apathy shown by European leaders that has led to this.
  • Of formal politics, yes, maybe they have been on the periphery.

    They haven't been on the periphery of British life.
  • There should always be room for some blue sky thinking and discussion on “what if” scenarios but we have to return to reality as it is in reality where we are all trying to carve out a decent living for ourselves.

    At the end of the day, at the time of the vote the UK enjoyed the fifth largest economy in the world, US, China, Japan and Germany were the only economies larger that ours, soooo, despite the inefficiency and bureaucracy associted with being a within the EU, the UK was doing rather well.

    I failed to see a comprehensible argument that leaving would make life better for us, why was it thought that a stand alone UK could realistically expect to negioate better and truly favorable trade deals with the rest of the world.

    I also believe, (albeit no doubt foolishly by some) that the necessary bureaucracy and pure cost associated with trying to establish totally new trade, operational and diplomatic relations with the rest of world would probably exceed the so called cost of membership in any case.

    Whatever the outcome from this moment, it is clear that the Government cannot hope to please everyone, but I think that a second referendum is the only real option now to provide hope in appeasing the majority, there seems to be a good chance that the prior vote to leave may not just be overturned, but crushed.

    In that event, even the leavers would have to accept the vote, if the leavers win narrowly again then guess what, we leave, the only real threat Is if the result is another closer call, say 51-49 in favor of staying, that would create a situation where it Is clear that the people are stubbonly divided.

    If that was the result, despite the resultant uncertainty, I think that we should formally announce our intent to stay and set in stone a third round in 2 or 3 years time, the time would allow feelings to cool whilst keeping a route to leave open.

    It seems ridiculous to even suggest a 2 out of 3 approach but it seems no more ridiculous that the situation we currrently find ourselves in.
  • I knew of the general manufacturing position from experience, and as you may have gathered the pretty constant running down of it in the media annoys me! However, I knew that any figures would be subject to challenge here, so I found a parliamentary research paper from last year to base them on. It even answers some of Mrs Grey's questions about trends.

    Overall I believe manufacturing is following a typical economic development curve like agriculture before it - now only 2% of the economy, but more importantly producing as much if not more food than ever. Other areas will follow once automation and machine learning really kicks in - less labour, same or more output.
  • Valiant, some fascinating data there and interesting conclusions, the UK seems to have been very successful in generating GDP away from manufacturing, overall GDP 5th largest and yet in manufacturing as a percentage of GDP, we are 118th.

    We all know that China has grown but living here in the US, you would be forgiven for believing that the US does not make anything anymore and yet they make nearly twice the manufacturing product of Japan in third place.

    I think it is clear that China and the US have cornered the automatic promotion spots for some time to come, :-)

    To be fair to our supreme leader, Donald seems to be doing a decent job in looking to apply the Fair play rules with the league leaders but I think that the new managers from the less fashionable teams are likely to overtake him with their new ideas on tactics. :deadhorse:

  • Aslef, Mrs G, I'm sorry, but these workers rights and green policies were being advocated by the Anarchists 150 years ago, the same Anarchists that were imprisoned and executed by the kind governments now passing these things into "law".

    Not just anarchists, socialists were advocating for the same things at the same time but it was socialists who organised into unions then formed the Labour party to represent them in parliament and won those rights against the opposition of the ruling class.

    Socialists got stuff done while anarchists were sitting around endlessly debating the finer details of Kropotkin.

    Yeold, I'm all in favour of cooperation, cooperation is the predominant human trait, it doesn't take a bloated bureaucracy and EU dictats for humans to cooperate. I'm sure we'll get along quite nicely without Mr Juncker telling us the correct procedures.

    If cooperation is the predominant human trait then its the predominant trait of the EU's bloated bureaucracy and Mr Juncker.

    Aslef, the financial collapse was a failure of global capitalism, nothing to do with Blair or Brown.

    That's not what I said, is it. What I said was Blair and Brown's "light touch" on regulation meant that the UK suffered a deeper recession than other countries like Germany who had stricter regulations.
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