Brexit

MrsGrey

thornburyiron said:

Do people deliberately misinterpret stuff. 😀I’m talking only about trading with EU countries going forward.

The arguments for and against reducing tariffs don't change according to the trading partner(s).

MrsGrey

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Instead of worrying about the implications of import/export tariffs now, why can`t we look at making/growing/producing things we currently import.

Well, unless you can change the climate, or suddenly create minerals, ores and other raw materials under the earth... you will be stuck with importing or doing without.

grey_til_I_dye

A once in a lifetime vote was promised, in or out

This is precisely what triggering Article 50 is bringing about.

There was nothing in the referendum question to suggest what that might involve, beyond no longer being an EU member state.

the proposition is that the UK remains or leaves the EU. There is nothing on when this should happen, or how it should happen, whether by Article 50 or other means (such as a new treaty). There is nothing, at least explicitly, on whether Britain should remain part of the EU single market or customs union (both are possible without being members of the EU), or on Euratom (again not explicitly). And there is nothing on what type of relationship, if any, the EU and UK should have after Brexit.
https://www.ft.com/content/b56b2b36-1835-37c6-8152-b175cf077ae8

For people to argue that, beyond no longer being an EU state, they thought it would deliver X, Y, or Z after the vote, they have no reason for any such expectations.

Certainly, Johnson and his fellow travelers offered the prospect of leaving Europe, being free from EU restrictions, saving bucket-loads of cash, and getting a better deal than the existing one, but frankly, if people believed that, I've got a couple of bridges going spare.

We may as well remain, all the current Brexit proposals (as I understand them) leave us in a worse position than remaining.

One of the reasons I posited for choosing remain.

TheMadcapLaughs

Mrs G, I was going to add where geographically/geologically possible but thought it unnecessary.

Oh, and god forbid we go without iPhone 28........

TheMadcapLaughs

Mr G, as I`ve said before, everyone I know that voted leave expected a clean break. The article 50 that said we would be leaving 29th march? Also "no deal" is a bit of a misnomer, there is no such thing as "no deal" it just sounds good as a soundbite. Same as crashing out, off a cliff edge etc etc etc.

Voting Remain, implies to me, that you are happy that the top 1% are getting richer and richer (literally as I type), whilst most of the rest are getting squeezed that little bit more, and those at the very bottom have gone about as far as they can go. I`m not being funny, but what would you suggest the EU change to reverse that. As far as I can see, the EU leaders do everything they can to foster and promote the steady march of Global capital. They are not foolish enough to openly promote this (Macron apart) but that appears to be what drives them. Everything is about big business, trade and finance. That is not a personal dig by the way, I know in the past you admitted leaning towards economic Marxism, I just wonder why you think the EU is so great. It baffles me.

MrsGrey

Leaving or staying in - will make no difference whatsoever to economic inequailty within our country. That comes from our own government.

grey_til_I_dye

I don't see how describing an exit from the EU without an agreed deal as 'No Deal' can be a misnomer. It seems to me to be simply descriptive.

I don't particularly think the EU is 'so great', but I do think that being a member of it is preferable to not. For me, anything that takes the edge of petty nationalism is a good thing. Since my vote in general elections may well not lead to a government of my choosing (a bigger 'blow to democracy' than any EU stuff, imo) I'm happy that the EU provides a set of checks and balances.

I might equally ask you if you honestly believe that voting to leave is really sticking it to global capitalism. Do you imagine that in a post-Brexit leave state the UK will be any different at all in terms of its attitude towards capitalism?

TheMadcapLaughs

Mrs G, I was referring to inequality globally, with the EU complicit in that, and I don`t think it will change. Specifically in Britain, I think that by leaving the EU, it will give us a focus, to actually do things better than the EU. I know that will not happen immediately, and believe me, I`m not relying on Messrs Rees-Mogg, Farage, or Johnson to provide the answers, I just think that Brexit gives us a once only chance of possibly effecting long term change. It may all go horribly wrong, but not having the guts to at least try, I find frustrating and cowardly.

ASLEFshrugged

TheMadcapLaughs said:

As far as I understand that, far from promoting free trade, the EU acts as a bit of a straight jacket as far as individual member states are concerned then. Surely all states following the same rules is as restrictive as it is "emancipating".

As with any system there are advantages and disadvantages, none of the countries that joined the EU were forced into it, they decided that the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Why can`t we actively support British farmers. Instead of worrying about the implications of import/export tariffs now, why can`t we look at making/growing/producing things we currently import.

Because British farmland can't provide everything we currently import. Our biggest agricultural export is barley, mostly for brewing. We grow far more barley than we can possibly consume but the fields its grown in aren't necessarily suitable for many other crops (I get all this info from "The Agri Brigade" column in Private Eye, I wouldn't know barley from wheat if I was looking at it).

We export loads of lamb and import loads of beef but the sort of pasture suitable for sheep farming is not suitable for cattle farming.

grey_til_I_dye

Sorry, Madcap, but I object to your suggesting that I am 'cowardly'.

My decision relating to the UK's remaining in the EU is rational, and based on self-interest, not fear. That it differs from yours is just something you will have to accept, preferably without offensive epithets.

TheMadcapLaughs

Mr G, "no deal" is used in a very negative sense, it SHOULD be descriptive only, but has been hijacked and interpreted in an almost apocalyptic way. In my mind there is either immediate agreed trading terms or WTO terms. No deal implies an immediate cessation of trade, everything will stop on leaving, not the case. I agree with your take on the good things the EU provides and implies. I also agree on the principle of federalism. Federalism though (imo) should be fluid, voluntary, and mutually beneficial. It should not be imposed from above, and it should not be restrictive. The EU has become a bloated, bureaucratic mess. The page linked below amuses me:

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/institutions-bodies_en

TheMadcapLaughs

Mr G, furthest thing from my mind. I meant the politicians have been cowardly, not you.

TheMadcapLaughs

Aslef, I know we can`t provide everything we currently import, but just a small swing to home grown, home produced would be a start. Surely from any perspective, the less miles something has to travel, has got to be a good thing. I`m not suggesting we close ourselves off and become Europes North Korea, with Kim Jong Mogg as our divine leader, but a little effort towards producing stuff again is desirable imo. Brexit, I would hope, would bring this into sharp focus.

ASLEFshrugged

Another interesting agriculture problem, every year around 800m litres of milk crosses the border from Ireland into Northern Ireland, is made into cheese and butter with the majority of it going back over the border. That's a lotta cow juice...

ASLEFshrugged

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Aslef, I know we can`t provide everything we currently import, but just a small swing to home grown, home produced would be a start. Surely from any perspective, the less miles something has to travel, has got to be a good thing.

A small swing? Half the food we eat is imported from outside the UK, 30% from the EU.

We import £11.1bn of fruit and veg, we export £1.2bn
We import £6.7bn of meat, we export £1.8bn
We import £3.9bn of cereals, we export £2.1m
Dairy & eggs, £1.8bn out, £3.2bn in, fish £1.9bn out, £3.2bn in.

The only categories we export more than we import is beverages, £7.4bn to £5.7bn, and that's mostly due to sales of Scotch whiskey.

Some Brexiteers say we could import food from countries outside the EU which would mean more travel not less.

TheMadcapLaughs

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/07/uk-run-out-of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Aslef, your figures above are shocking. It doesn`t have to be this way though. Brexit should be seen as an opportunity, for British farmers, British producers and British manufacturing and ingenuity. Just because we have taken the easy (cheapest) route in the past doesn`t mean we have to continue. Failing that there are worse things to live on than salmon and scotch....................

ASLEFshrugged

British farmers rely on the handouts under the Common Agricultural Policy, the government have committed to matching the subsidies but only until 2024 after which nobody is quite sure.

In order to be economically viable they'd have to increase their prices to a level whereby their businesses would be sustainable which would mean massive prices for the consumer.

There's also the question of where farms get their workers from, they are currently reliant on EU migrants, some of who work seasonally then go back home.

Unless we're going to reverse the shift of people into urban areas with a Pol Pot type cleansing of cities and a "return to the land" then this is how its going to be.

Yeoldhammer

TheMadcapLaughs said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/07/uk-run-out-of-food-no-deal-brexit-national-farmers-union

Aslef, your figures above are shocking. It doesn`t have to be this way though. Brexit should be seen as an opportunity, for British farmers, British producers and British manufacturing and ingenuity. Just because we have taken the easy (cheapest) route in the past doesn`t mean we have to continue. Failing that there are worse things to live on than salmon and scotch....................

Unfortunately our manufacturing sector is non existent and will remain that way with China and India mass producing everything, which in or out the EU will not change that.

As for British Farmers, we have had campaigns to buy local to support British Farmers, but when Supermarkets can blow the average butcher out the water. It just isn't going to happen, not to mention Farming in the UK barely produces enough food to feed London let alone the rest of the country.

TheMadcapLaughs

So British farming and British manufacturing has all but died a death, and that`s how it must stay? So, where are all our youngsters going to work in the future? Uber, Amazon, Starbucks? Cos by the sound of it we don`t have any choice. I suppose the only guaranteed career path is undertaker, unless Amazon get into that and automate it.

MrsGrey

TheMadcapLaughs said:

So British farming and British manufacturing has all but died a death, and that`s how it must stay?

You can't turn the clock back.

The circumstances when British farming and British manufacturing were more flourishing than they are at present cannot be recreated. Not even by leaving the EU.

The world is a different place now.

There will be lots of opportunities for our youngsters in seasonal, low paid agricultural jobs like picking strawberries and lettuces.

TheMadcapLaughs

It`s a different place, but is it a better place? And it is a serious question: What will our youngsters be doing for future employment?

MrsGrey

It is a serious question.

And do you think it will have abetter answer if we leave the EU?

Yeoldhammer

Automation will take a lot of the jobs, manufacturing in general from a long term outlook and i reckon (25 - 35 years from now) will literally be gone and replaced by machines. The question on what jobs and opportunities that young people have will not be solved by trying to boost industries that are dwindling or set to be non existent in a generation.

Its not about giving up its about preparing for what the future is likely to be. The UK will never compete with India / China in producing mass quantities and attempting to do so is futile. If the UK wants to prepare for tomorrows world it needs innovators and to cultivate for the climate ahead. Education is key. China and India will run into their own problems once they find out a large portion of their labour workforce is not needed due to automation. The UK needs to recognise this and get ahead of the curve.

TheMadcapLaughs

Mrs G, yes, I think if we leave the EU we will need to re-focus our efforts. Yeold, agree with the above, and again I will re-iterate, I think we have more chance of getting ahead of the curve out of the EU. I want free trade, I want innovation and entrepreneurship, I want Britain ahead of the curve. You don`t get ahead of the curve weighed down by red tape, rules, regulations, restrictive practices. Have a look at the page I linked above to the EU website. It is an absolute nightmare of bureaucratic nonsense. Having said that, if our government fudge leaving, we may as well stay in the EU.

BubblesNeverDies

Manufacturing will probably return to the UK in a few years when China, South Korea and India see that wages are lower here in Europe's soon-to-be Third World country than in their own countries.
What goes around comes around.

Yeoldhammer

More innovation has come from collaboration between countries, its why the majority of scientists want us to be apart of the EU for cross purpose research. Not to mention some of the projects the UK is currently involved in is based around infrastructure and facilities in other EU countries and its highly unlikely we would be able to replicate all that infrastructure in this country let alone at a lower cost.

ASLEFshrugged

TheMadcapLaughs said:

So British farming and British manufacturing has all but died a death, and that`s how it must stay?

British farming is not enough to feed the UK population despite the fact that 70% of the UK is given over to agriculture. Manufacturing isn't going to expand unless someone is prepared to invest in it and at the moment that investment is going to Asia.

TheMadcapLaughs said:

I want free trade, I want innovation and entrepreneurship, I want Britain ahead of the curve. You don`t get ahead of the curve weighed down by red tape, rules, regulations, restrictive practices.

Red tape, rules and regulations are what stop employers cutting workers' rights, reduce industrial accidents, forces industry to ensure they don't pollute the environment, keeps up food standards.

Blair and Brown's "soft touch" on financial regulation allowed "innovation and entrepreneurship" in the City, as a consequence the UK suffered more from the recession in 2008 than France or Germany where regulations were stricter.

The 1% would love to cut rules, regulations and red tape. Do you think Rees-Mogg wants Brexit to makes things better for the 99%?

MrsGrey

TheMadcapLaughs said:

You don`t get ahead of the curve weighed down by red tape, rules, regulations, restrictive practices.

The UK has fought tooth and nail against implementing EU regs on improving air quality, for nearly a decade.

Its own govt reports show that some 50,000 Britons die prematurely each year from illnesses associated with pollutants that these new regs are designed to reduce.

You don't get ahead of the curve dragging around an oxygen tank so you can breath, either.

ValiantIron

I'm going to slightly nervously poke my head above the parapet here.

Point of order, re. UK's manufacturing. It's actually done okay. We have maintained its value and are still among the top 10 manufacturers in the world.

What has happened is that the rest of the economy has grown much more, meaning manufacturing is now only just over 10% of the economy. Employment in it has reduced both relatively because of this and further because of automation. This is what gives the perception that manufacturing has faded away badly, because relatively speaking it has, but in absolute / real terms (i.e. even accounting for inflation), it's done fine really.

With a 'Pop', he was gone again...

TheMadcapLaughs

Aslef, Mrs G, I'm sorry, but these workers rights and green policies were being advocated by the Anarchists 150 years ago, the same Anarchists that were imprisoned and executed by the kind governments now passing these things into "law". Yeold, I'm all in favour of cooperation, cooperation is the predominant human trait, it doesn't take a bloated bureaucracy and EU dictats for humans to cooperate. I'm sure we'll get along quite nicely without Mr Juncker telling us the correct procedures. Aslef, the financial collapse was a failure of global capitalism, nothing to do with Blair or Brown.