The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

pardewalegend

Not for long ;ok ;wahoo

ASLEFshrugged

Chamberlain said ''peace in our time''. Wilson said ''this won't effect the pound in your pocket'' and Cameron said ''no ifs, no buts, no third runway''.

Whitehorsehammer

pardew. Germany can't have trade deal talks with us, they are part of the EU, so can only negotiate deals with UK in agreement with the other 27 counties.

baracks_a_hammer

Whitehorsehammer said:

pardew. Germany can't have trade deal talks with us, they are part of the EU, so can only negotiate deals with UK in agreement with the other 27 counties.

Correct except for the fact that the EU is pretty much Germany dictated - who exactly of the remaining countries are going to object if they engage in dialogue with the U.K.?

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

They can't enter into bilateral agreements, so I can't see what the dialogue would be like, except

UK - Psst want a trade deal?

Germany - Sorry, I'm in a relationship.

Whitehorsehammer

26 other countries baracks! The EU will negotiate with us as one. But that won't happen until we have a plan and that could be a long way off yet.

Dodger58

Which is also one of the reasons EU Trade Deals take so long to get ratified ...

thornburyiron

Or Grey Germany will say "the others will do as they're told as usual so let's talk".

grey_til_I_dye

thorn

I'm sorry, I don't share your view of Germany.

baracks_a_hammer

I could be wrong (grey, for obvious reasons you may know better), but when it came to the Greek bail out loans, the mouthpiece for the euro denominated eu countries was merkel, was it not? I don't remember juncker taking the lead?..

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

But, for me, that's exactly what it was, a mouthpiece, speaking for the whole of the EU. (Although she was certainly a hate figure for many Greeks.)

I'm not suggesting Germany doesn't have more general influence than, say, Portugal (or Greece...) , but n the end, they can't force their will on other EU members.

pardewalegend

Germany are the powerhouse and the smaller countries will follow there lead
A cheeky fact for you Germany's biggest industry is cars... Germany's biggest customer the UK

Hmmmmm

pardewalegend

In my humble view I'm fairly sure that the owners of
Bmw
Audi
Mercedes
Vw
We're all on the phone to merkal the minute that vote came through

claretandbluesky

The potential stitch up with regard EU trade talks is that once we trigger article 50 we leave automatically after two years, they also suggest we need exit before trade talks can commence, but even without that second aspect being implemented the stitch us is that they allow the two years to pass as the nearer we get to it and beyond it the financial services industry loses the ability to be able to function in the way it does now without access to the EU. Germany and France would very much like to become the financial centre of the EU and so it would look an obvious ploy.

The more I look the more the rewards seem opaque when compared to the possible risks. I feel it would have taken something quite huge to have resulted in us having our credit rating down graded, sterling taking such a drop and a potential loss of our financial industry, I feel had something else happened all of us leave or remain would have been unified in recognising that whatever that was could not possibly be a good thing.

pardewalegend

I have a theory for you
The government quote we will do all we can to make brexit work in the meantime the economy drops, house prices stagnate the pound to euro struggles the pound to dollar stays low
Fuel and food prices rocket, mini recession and in a year they announce we are staying in!!
This way they have given us our vote made us feel special but had no intention of ever leaving!!

IronHerb

Or all as you say happens and we leave.

pardewalegend

We will see

pardewalegend

The interesting thing is no one can predict the future

Hammerex

What about mystic Meg.

Dodger58

or Lawro?

pardewalegend

Lol

Whitehorsehammer

pardewalegend said:

I have a theory for you
The government quote we will do all we can to make brexit work in the meantime the economy drops, house prices stagnate the pound to euro struggles the pound to dollar stays low
Fuel and food prices rocket, mini recession and in a year they announce we are staying in!!
This way they have given us our vote made us feel special but had no intention of ever leaving!!

I like your thinking pardew. This is exactly what happened with the fox hunting ban. The anti hunt won the day and have the legal and moral high ground, so are happy, the hunters keep on hunting and are happy. win. win.

pardewalegend

This sort of thing goes on all the time it's one big game and in the mean time some major players are buying shares at very low prices and when they announce we are staying in BOOM those shares rocket and thanks very much!!!

ASLEFshrugged

I wouldn't suggest telling the French that Germany dominates the EU, you might get a rather hostile response.

pardewalegend

Yep
But the truth hurts lol

Ironduke

Lest we forget we all support the best team in the world (well we all believe that, right?) and there is nothing wrong with healthy debate...all I have to say on this matter is that there is a much bigger issue going on than UK leaving the EU club....Trump declared official Republican candidate of the most powerful nation in the known world...just think about that....

grey_til_I_dye

Ironduke

ASLEFshrugged

Its scary but the way things are going Clinton will win, she's even on course to win Arizona which has been a "Red state" since 2000.

IronHerb

Lets hope so