The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

NEoldiron

This is what keeps coming to mind when I read the leavers' posts


https://youthworkable.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/shoved-head-into-sand.gif

Whitehorsehammer

Agreed Tomw85, nothing is guaranteed, Scotland may not even have a second referendum but I think there will be a lot who really don't like the idea of being taken out of the EU against their wishes.

IronHerb

Whitehorse,

You don't have to be Scottish to feel that way....

imagelost

Herbs ;clap

Tomw85

Whitehorse - I would be surprised if there wasn't given the % in vs out at the referendum. What we need to do now is come up with a plan and hopefully get trade deals agreed that the majority of Scotland can get behind and as such be happy to stay.

NEoldiron, one could also say the same about remainers who seem to have no concerns about the ever closer union that the EU is heading towards and which they have openly stated that they want to push ahead with despite unrest about that in a number of counties in the EU.

I have refrained from responding to some of your previous posts as I didn't want to get into a debt with you as we clearly have different views and would be unlikely to agree, however I would ask that you show a little more respect to people that did vote out. As has been shown in the many posts here a lot of people did do their own research and didn't just fall for the headline quotes from some of the politicians.

Whitehorsehammer

Tomw85 You said "What we need to do now is come up with a plan" Agreed, and then ask do we still want to leave.

One of the concessions the UK have is we will not join in any closer union.

PrestonHammer

Whitehorsehammer

I problem with that is another government gets in and joins us up anyway. I don't really trust politicians.

Tomw85

I voted out and still back my decision, however I do agree that there should have been a third option on the ballet, vote to leave if a better deal cannot be agreed. That would have been my preferred option, however both Cameron and the EU failed to realise just how many people had had enough of the EU and his negotiations offered us very little.

The concessions we have were slowly being eroded and I believe would have continued to even further if we were stay.

NEoldiron

Tomw85

Whitehorse has answered for me regarding concessions.

You also said "didn't just fall for the headline quotes from some of the politicians."
You mean those headline quotes like "taking back control" with Farage standing in front of refugees, like "340million a week for the NHS" from Ian Duncan Smith.

The overwhelming opinion of impartial observers was that it would be disastrous to leave.
All I've seen on here from the leavers since the referendum are copy-paste headlines from pro-Brexit newspapers saying how everything will be rosy (I'm obviously paraphrasing).
Also, how we're the 5th biggest economy in the world - which should now be amended to we were.

What by the way were the "concessions we have (that) were slowly being eroded"? ;hmm

imagelost

I voted out , ,, I want stay out,, like the 2k ish people I know,,

Tomw85

Neoldiron, I am at work so not quite able to spend the time on this that I would like, but just to quickly answer your points;

Concessions, below is a link to an article back in 1994 when our power to veto already started to weaken:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/european-elections-explaining-the-mysterious-british-veto-john-lichfield-writes-the-first-of-a-1438345.html

I did want to find a more recent article to back this up further but a quick search showed me that there is so much press out there that is either remain or leave it was hard to find something that I felt wasn't bias.

I would ask what evidence you have to show that we were not losing our ability to veto and that the EU was not heading for further integration that we would be likely to be involved in in some form or another.

Also here is a link to show that we could agree new trade deals and still be a major economy in the world:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/690191/Britain-ten-Brexit-trade-deals-lined-up-economic-powerhouses

Apart from having to renegotiate with the EU over access to the single market (not the only market in the world) do you have any evidence to show that we will suddenly stop being the 5th/6th biggest economy in the world?

As an out voter I am constantly being asked to prove something that is nearly impossible to prove of what will happen next, all I can do is point to the stories I have read that are not all doom and gloom. HSBC and Barclays both said they are staying, Semiens are still pushing ahead with investment. London is still geographically placed to be the financial centre of the world.

Why restrict our ability to trade and negotiate with the world to fit in the with EU which is one of the slowest growing continents:

http://theconversation.com/fact-check-does-only-the-economy-of-antarctica-grow-slower-than-the-eus-61235

I am really at a loss as to why so many remainers cannot see a future for us outside of the EU. As I said many pages back if the EU had remained a free trading market as it started out as then by all means count me in, however I do not like the way it is evolving and find it to be undemocratic. I have had lengthy debates with my sister who is pro remain and a Corbyn supporter and after we have finished going round in circles we both realise that we want the same end goal but have different views on how we will get there.

Yes a small minority have been loud and vulgar thinking that their racist views are now ok, but speaking for myself and the other out voters I know we despise those people just as much, if not more for the bad rep they give us all, as you remainers.

Dodger58

Tomw85 said:

I voted out and still back my decision, however I do agree that there should have been a third option on the ballet, vote to leave if a better deal cannot be agreed. That would have been my preferred option, however both Cameron and the EU failed to realise just how many people had had enough of the EU and his negotiations offered us very little.

The concessions we have were slowly being eroded and I believe would have continued to even further if we were stay.

Two points on this:
1. I think Cameron knew he needed concessions from the EU but they were too 'blind' to realise that they had to give any.
2. As you correctly say concessions have been and will continue to be eroded.

This is why I am more than happy to be in the process of disentangling ourselves from the EU.

Tomw85

Dodger - I agree, I think if the EU knew what the outcome would have been that there would have been more given to try and prevent it. Although that said, I do worry that they do not care and are so set on pushing ahead with their plans that they there is a chance they wouldn't have done anything differently anyways.

thornburyiron

As I posted a couple of weeks ago my tenuous relative who is a translator at the EU in Brussels said vote remain if you want her to keep her job or leave if you don't want to be part of a German led federal state of Europe. They've already applied to join NATO as such so they're determined to do it.

Whitehorsehammer

some interesting thoughts in this piece.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/second-referendum-only-way-get-britain-back-brexit

thornburyiron

That's all it is. Someone's thoughts.

grey_til_I_dye

Tom

It isn't, at least for me, that I don't see a future, just that I don't see it as being better than in the EU.

It's fine saying we can get trade deals with new partners, but the question is will they be better than the UK could have got within the EU? If not, what's the benefit?

And if the UK strikes independent trade deals (as it must), that will presumably have an impact on how they trade with the EU, and what deals they make.

I can only see short and medium term damage to the UK economy as a result of choosing Brexit (it took Australia and China 10 years to come up with their trade agreement), and I very much doubt that the long-term will bring any great benefits beyond what the UK would have had from within the EU.

And if the UK end up with something like the Norway agreement, then the pain will have been for absolutely no real benefit whatsoever.

Tomw85

Whitehorse, lies were told on both sides - look at Osbourne for the remain camp. Also all we have had from most of the press since the result is project fear and the markets tumbling.

I work in property in Islington and I have read so many articles about prices dropping 10-20%. So far all of the deals I had agreed before Brexit as still moving forward to exchange. Yes there has been a bit of renegotiating (2-4% at most) but that is just because people are quoting the papers as their evidence of the market crashing.

It is not the case, I even had multiple bids on a property last week. Yes the very top end is slow, but it was even before the referendum. In fact there are now rumblings that it is starting to move again now that the £ is down and foreign investors are coming back to pick up deals.

There is a counter to every argument, but rather than keep trying to talk things down in the hopes it will give more cause to try and change the result lets embrace the challenge ahead and see that there is a world beyond the EU.

NEoldiron

Thorn, regarding the link that Whitehorse provided, as Richard Dawkins the author of the piece asked,

"What do you have to lose in holding a second referendum? Do you not have the courage of your own convictions? Do you, perhaps, have stirrings of queasiness as you watch some of your most vocal leaders abandoning the sinking ship they helped to scupper – or at least displaying a disquieting cluelessness about what to do with the country now that they’ve “taken it back”?"

A little more than "That's all it is. Someone's thoughts"

This matter is far too important to be decided by fewer than 2million votes.

thornburyiron

How big a difference would it have to be before it was accepted then? 5M, 10M?

Why not make all football matches a draw unless one team wins by 2 or 3 clear goals.

If remain had won by the same margin you'd have been arguing until you were blue in the face that the result must stand because that's democracy.

Tomw85

Neoldiron, I am still waiting for you to come back to me on the questions that I put back to you earlier...

Moojor

I would have been happy with a second referendum if remain had won because I don't believe a large number of people who voted would have felt lied to when straight afterwards some of the biggest claims were proven to be false and those campaigning to remain wouldn't have all just quit or run away from their responsibilities.

Tomw85

David Cameron has quit and George Osbourne is no longer in his position following the result. Again you can counter most arguments.

Say we had a second referendum and the result was to leave again, would you actually accept that or would you carry on saying that over 17m people are idiots who believed a few sound bite lies and push to over turn the result again?

Moojor

Erm... if remain had won Cameron wouldn't have quit. So no that argument isn't countered.

PrestonHammer

Why didn't the remain camp bust the lies instead of coming out with whoppers of their own?

MrsGrey

thornburyiron said:

That's all it is. Someone's thoughts.

Like your relative who works in Brussels?

Tomw85

Moojor said:

Erm... if remain had won Cameron wouldn't have quit. So no that argument isn't countered.

Very fair point Moojor, I think one of these is in need for me ;facepalm

thornburyiron

Mrs G I believe she's been present at various confidential meetings and would probably be sacked anyway if it was known she'd been talking. As for her being my relative I've no idea as it seems so far removed I'd have no idea what to call it

claretandbluesky

I am amazed that we found anyone to take the job once Dave left as I feel Theresa may is faced with one of the worst decisions we could imagine, she must sacrifice the economy for the idea of democracy or sacrifice the idea of democracy to save the economy. I do state the word 'idea' of democracy as I do believe it only to be an idea that can be manipulated by information providers, so a more accurate description would be a mechanism through which the information providers do battle to impose their agenda through persuading the populous.

I also feel that were the leave - remain question put to parliament it would be an overwhelming majority to remain. This could be interpreted two ways, the first being that the MPs voting are fortunate to fall within the group of people that the world is working out ok for, or the other way to view it is that they are actually willing and able to inform themselves of the real facts and able to weigh and measure the risks versus reward for the nation as a whole than your average member of the public. I would probably say both would be about equally true personally.

NEoldiron

Tomw85

"I am still waiting for you to come back to me on the questions that I put back to you earlier..."

If you mean this, "what evidence you have to show that we were not losing our ability to veto etc etc." an absence of evidence does not prove a negative.

If you mean this, "we will suddenly stop being the 5th/6th biggest economy in the world", well if the likelihood of the City losing its financial passport becomes a reality together with the drop in inward foreign investment .......


Thorn,
if you've read my earlier posts I've said consistently that the referendum should not be viewed as a legally binding decision - which it isn't, but read the article by Richard Dawkins and see how other countries do it.

Grey's last post sums it up for me.