The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

chicagohammer

Boris Johnson, Foreign secretary, special relationship, USA, Donald Trump, I desparately need a haircut

OutcastLondoner

Birds-Angela Eagle-Labour coup-Turkish coup-BoJo's Turkish grandfather

AdMeus_CaputFilius

EU students will be subject to the same student visa application processes as no EU students are now, this is likely to reduce student numbers by as much as 40% in the short term.

Suzanne - out of interest did they base that on any factual information or is it just based on supposition? Why would applying for a visa make any difference, surely if they want to come they will fill out some documentation in good time - or is that the problem, getting them to fill out the visa application?

I would assume these days it can all be done on-line and I am sure they are more computer literate than I am, but even I can quickly navigate my way around the Gov't website's to fill in forms which are then submitted and quickly processes.

I notice they also use the words "Likely" and "Short Term" - I would disagree, if anything there will probably be a short term increase as more will want to get in before the negotiations and changes are made - I think the reality is that the visa system for EU students will be phased in, with one phase being for existing students for their remaining time and one for new students after a certain date. For those who want to stay on after for work purposes, I would like to think there will be a system in place where six months before they graduate, there will be a way of registering this so that the student visa can be converted to a work visa or something.

NOTE: The above is an opinion only, mixed with thoughts of what I would do, as it seems the most sensible approach - I have no knowledge of Gov't plans or insider knowledge.

On a side note: I have been to visit several of our clients since the Leave vote who trade with Europe and the rest of the world, they have all reported increases in trade (mainly due to the fall in the value of the pound I would guess), one said they normally do about 30K per day but have been regularly doing over 50k per day and one day did more than 65K, which was the best in their 10yrs of trading.

Based on this I would say there is some reasons for optimism.

OutcastLondoner

AdMeUs, from what I know the visa process for students is quite long and there's also a lot of stuff about registering with the police when you arrive. It was made much more stringent after 2010.

I think the main issue would be fees. They now pay same fees as UK students but probably will have to pay the much higher foreign student fee.

SuzanneClaret

AdMe

It's all based on actual facts.

AdMeus_CaputFilius

Outcast - ;ok

Thanks for that, I can see the reason it is more stringent, but can it not be done in a way where there if a country is deemed a "low Risk" then the visa process cannot be simplified? I know where there is a "high risk" country then it are increased checks etc. both for people going to them as well as those coming from them.

SuzanneClaret

AdMe

I'll get more actual facts next Wednesday after I have attend an emergency meeting with the School of Medicine & Dentistry.

SuzanneClaret

International students have to show a level of finance that EU students do not.

Along with a long winded visa process coming to a UK university will be more expensive for EU students than it is now when entry requirements change.

MrsGrey

There's also the question of whether EU countries will continue to recognise UK qualifications gained by their citizens. Which means any kid planning on starting a degree in the next year or two won't know whether their qualifications will be recognised by the time they graduate.

SuzanneClaret

Yep.

There is that too.

thornburyiron

Seeing as you can currently study for a degree in virtually anything in our universities such as the Kardashians, which someone got a 2:1 recently, I don't blame them. ;wink

MrsGrey

no. she really didn't. she studied sociology for three years. part of her degree was a dissertation in which she analysed the impact of the programme in society including issues such fetishisation and consumerism. I get fed up of this sub-daily mail myth making. why do people do it. does it make them feel better?

AdMeus_CaputFilius

MrsGrey said:

There's also the question of whether EU countries will continue to recognise UK qualifications gained by their citizens. Which means any kid planning on starting a degree in the next year or two won't know whether their qualifications will be recognised by the time they graduate.

That would open up a can of worms, I don't see why they wouldn't as the flip side would be the UK no longer recognising qualifications gained by EU nationals coming to the UK for work - it would certainly put the mockers on the Construction Industry bringing in already trained and qualified workers - would mean they would have to go to all the expense of training them themselves and taking on many more apprentices to fill the skills gap........ ;hmm

OutcastLondoner

MrsG, I feel like that won't be a problem. I think degrees from UK universities will always be quite respected.

AdMe, I don't know but they'd have to really sort out the system. There was nonsense about people having to queue up all day at the police station to register when they arrived. I don't know if they've cleared that up in the last couple of years but those stories could put a lot of people off. You can see why it would have at least a short term effect given the lack of clarity around what exactly happens next.

SuzanneClaret

Ok so, what country recognises what's countries degrees changes from time to time. whilst in the short term it won't be an issue there is genuine concern that it the long term it may well do.

UK degrees are of a high standard, we have waiting lists for most of our courses. The drop in student numbers will mean University's will have to drop entery level standards to attract students that might not have otherwise made the grade to keep the numbers up.

This will in the long term have a knock on effect in the quality of degree.

grey_til_I_dye

Outcast

It isn't a case of just being respected.

Currently, as an example, we know a girl who is considering studying for a B Ed in the UK.

At the moment, that qualification is recognised in Greece, should she want to come back and teach here, because the UK is part of the EU.

Who is to say that will stay the same post Brexit?

OutcastLondoner

Suz ;ok

Grey, perhaps a teaching or other professional qualification is different but with general degrees I don't think it's likely to change much. Many Europeans go and study in the US but their qualifications are recognised. Many from non-EU countries study in the UK and their qualifications are accepted.

For most general studies, I don't think there is any standard that is bound to the EU. For teaching, medicine etc. maybe but in other cases respect is what makes a degree valid.

MrsGrey

Up until a few years ago Greece didn't recognise any 3yr degrees. They insisted a degree should be 4 years.


Once again as with so many issues the line seems to be 'don't worry I' m sure it will be fine'.

It may well be. But that doesn't really help with decision making in the short-term.

OutcastLondoner

Well, wasn't that Greece's own decision rather than the EU's? Seeing as so many EU students were freely studying 3-year degrees in the UK without worrying about their qualifications not being recognised.

That's not what I'm saying MrsGrey. I can see how Brexit will affect universities but I don't see how degrees are bound to EU membership unless member states decide to disqualify British ones. You'd expect they would then also not accept degrees from the US.

I've never seen a job in any type of organisation or country mention any need for a degree from an EU state.

MrsGrey

yes to your first question. but once it joined the EU it eventually had to stop discriminating between degrees gained in other member states based on their duration. US degrees are not all recognised in Greece currently. nor are many degrees from other non-European places.

NEoldiron

Getting back to the original thread, this makes interesting reading

http://www.bbk.ac.uk/sshp/politics/news/BirkbeckDepartmentofPoliticsBrexitBriefing.pdf

IronHerb

Not really.

NEoldiron

IH, so you don't think that the Leave/Remain divide not being influenced by income or class but by one's leaning towards authoritarianism is not of interest? ;hmm

IronHerb

NE. The votes been taken. It went against what I wanted but I am, begrudgingly, accepting it. I don't want a coup as attempted in Turkey. You can work the numbers in many ways.

It worries me more that people would support hanging and whipping full stop.

Swissiron

This is precisely the problem. The UK is now between two types of democracy and the types are fundamentally incompatible with each other.

I run a company in Switzerland where they have referenda as part of their decision making structure and constitution, at different levels (it's a federal system) strictly controlled as to subject.

The Swiss public is well informed and the system works although it ensures that no politician ever rises above the parapet or makes a key decision that could be challenged. Can you name one Swiss politician now? ever?

It also yields results that the politicians dont like for example the Swiss turned down the free movement /migration aspect of the EU single market last year and thus promptly lost the ERASMUS programme, axed by the EU a week after the vote as I kind of spiteful "I told you so" measure.

We will get even worse treatment from the EU, by the way, once we are out...

The UK system is parliamentary democracy which saves us from stupid decisions voted by the general public made in single issue votes such as referenda. The idea is that we give our big choices to a local MP who will represent us in the Parliament, which is sovereign in its decisions, once signed by the Queen.

If capital punishment were a referendum subject it would be passed and we would have to implement capital punishment, although Parliament hasn't touched this in decades.

It was decided that EU membership was a fitting subject for a refendum to stay in or leave in 1975 after the Labour Party promised it in their manifesto in the 2nd General Election of 1974 and the public decided to stay by a good majority (larger than 52-48). Enoch Powell, Michael Foot and Peter Shore used to be on the same platforms for "out" as I recall.

Cameron resorted to it for the Scots independence issue and then fatefully for the 2nd go at leaving the EU.

Most of Parliament was shocked by the result, most of the Tory and Labour MPs and most of the rest. The chatterati in London is aghast and resentful. It showed that they had got out of touch with ordinary people, yes, but that's partly what representative parliaments, to be frank, are supposed to do.

MPs are supposed to be more informed and more politically intelligent than the mass of those they represent, to be looking over the next hill and taking sustainable decisions that have a coherenrt future, something that the British public doesn't have to do in a referendum, which is subject to all the dark forces of PR, to straight lies and to "too much information" and too many experts.

I went to a meeting in Brussels just last Friday which essentially reallocated legitimate UK representation at the meeting to non voting observers. The meeting then went on to redistribute the UK's 2017 financial allocations under an EU programme to the other member states for the purposes of the 2017 budget procedure which started back in June this year.

Why were there no leaders amongst the leavers? Because they were all politicians and knew that they did not want to take the responsibility for the unholy mess of our future and our economic prospects that this vote will produce.

Now we are all strung out with two differing legitimacies and it hurts to do the splits. Half against half. Many of us and our children have more difficult futures as a result of this vote.

But, "hey, that's democracy" - it's just a different, but not a better, sort. There will be more and longer hurt over this decision than the now "fifty years of hurt" since 1966.

Amen

NEoldiron

Swiss, very eloquently put, ;clap but sadly no-one is listening ;weep

MrsGrey

Agree.

pardewalegend

Brexit

No one really knows what will happen
Interesting times ahead though

Whitehorsehammer

NEoldiron. Very few people are listening now and I suspect that only a handful of senior civil servants have got any idea of what will be involved, over the coming months Ministers will start to grasp the enormity of what leaving actually means and it will be interesting to see how they then start to reposition themselves.

claretandbluesky

A great post Swissiron!

It seems clear that Dave thought he could chance his luck and quieten down the noisy members of his own party and his foolishness will now bite everyone, but not him of course, in his Oxfordshire mansion. He will be humming a happy tune no doubt as he dips his digestives, watching the news he created.