The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

AdMeus_CaputFilius

IronHerb said:

Tom,

From the FT on 29th June

The City of London should no longer be able to clear euro-denominated trades, the French president said on Tuesday, adding to post-Brexit fears.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8e0c44a-3d89-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html#axzz4En9SrzK7

This is some ridiculous figure of 1 trillion Euro a day I think.

IH,

Note the underlined part - that is his opinion, it does not mean they won't or it will change anytime soon if at all - and he does not make policy on this, he is working to position Paris to take on the role if it happens, which is something the French have wanted for years and have tried to unsuccessfully to do in the past, nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with improving the economy and power of France. I recall there have been two or three bun fights about this in the past and the Financial institutions in London basically gave the French a long glance and then shrugged their shoulders and carried on.

In the world I work in there are two words which dictate interpretation in any documentation - Shall is an imperative, therefore an instruction. In which case you do something to comply, otherwise you will find yourself on notice pending suspension if you do not comply within a given timeframe.

Should is a choice as it is pointing to what someone considers (in their opinion) to be the best course of action, you can if you want but if you don't it is not a compliance issue, because you don't have to.

Of course the person telling you that you Should/Shouldn't do something may have a different opinion to you or others or ulterior motive to gain an advantage from your decision. SO it does not mean you should follow their advice.

AdMeus_CaputFilius

Where was our protection when the Chinese were dumping cheap steel into the EU market?

Well, I am pretty sure that one of the reasons that the UK Gov't did not (could not) step in with financial help was in case the rest of the EU saw it as giving state aid which is illegal unless agreed/authorised by the EU. So given all the EU members Steel industries would have suffered I can see they would have allowed it.

State Aid is agreed for some areas between EU members and there are lots of rules and regulations regarding it. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/state-aid

AdMeus_CaputFilius

UK technology firm ARM Holdings is to be bought by Japan's Softbank for £24bn ($32bn) it confirmed on Monday.

This has now happened

ARM said it would keep its headquarters in Cambridge and that it would at least double the number of its staff over the next five years.

So not leaving then

Sources close to the deal say the Japanese company considers ARM well placed to exploit the so called "internet of things" which may see microchips embedded in whole new categories of household and business devices.

Also looking to the future.

I dare say that the value of the pound currently played a part, but no doubt all those new 'free trade deals' on the board outside the EU was also a consideration.

Dodger58

SoftBank would have gone through with the purchase whether Brexit happened or not. The change in currency rate was not a factor in the deal.

ARM is very much a Global business. Significant investment is already ongoing in Cambridge (and other ARM locations), this will continue and be expanded further.

pardewalegend

So
Canada
Australia
China

All want to speak to us regarding trade deals

And not forgetting Germany the EU superpower was the very first in line to talk trade deals

IronHerb

So?

ASLEFshrugged

As the world's 5th largest GDP it's no surprise major nations want to agree trade deals but there's no guarantee the deals on offer will be better than the ones we had with the EU. And we're still part of the EU

pardewalegend

Not for long ;ok ;wahoo

ASLEFshrugged

Chamberlain said ''peace in our time''. Wilson said ''this won't effect the pound in your pocket'' and Cameron said ''no ifs, no buts, no third runway''.

Whitehorsehammer

pardew. Germany can't have trade deal talks with us, they are part of the EU, so can only negotiate deals with UK in agreement with the other 27 counties.

baracks_a_hammer

Whitehorsehammer said:

pardew. Germany can't have trade deal talks with us, they are part of the EU, so can only negotiate deals with UK in agreement with the other 27 counties.

Correct except for the fact that the EU is pretty much Germany dictated - who exactly of the remaining countries are going to object if they engage in dialogue with the U.K.?

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

They can't enter into bilateral agreements, so I can't see what the dialogue would be like, except

UK - Psst want a trade deal?

Germany - Sorry, I'm in a relationship.

Whitehorsehammer

26 other countries baracks! The EU will negotiate with us as one. But that won't happen until we have a plan and that could be a long way off yet.

Dodger58

Which is also one of the reasons EU Trade Deals take so long to get ratified ...

thornburyiron

Or Grey Germany will say "the others will do as they're told as usual so let's talk".

grey_til_I_dye

thorn

I'm sorry, I don't share your view of Germany.

baracks_a_hammer

I could be wrong (grey, for obvious reasons you may know better), but when it came to the Greek bail out loans, the mouthpiece for the euro denominated eu countries was merkel, was it not? I don't remember juncker taking the lead?..

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

But, for me, that's exactly what it was, a mouthpiece, speaking for the whole of the EU. (Although she was certainly a hate figure for many Greeks.)

I'm not suggesting Germany doesn't have more general influence than, say, Portugal (or Greece...) , but n the end, they can't force their will on other EU members.

pardewalegend

Germany are the powerhouse and the smaller countries will follow there lead
A cheeky fact for you Germany's biggest industry is cars... Germany's biggest customer the UK

Hmmmmm

pardewalegend

In my humble view I'm fairly sure that the owners of
Bmw
Audi
Mercedes
Vw
We're all on the phone to merkal the minute that vote came through

claretandbluesky

The potential stitch up with regard EU trade talks is that once we trigger article 50 we leave automatically after two years, they also suggest we need exit before trade talks can commence, but even without that second aspect being implemented the stitch us is that they allow the two years to pass as the nearer we get to it and beyond it the financial services industry loses the ability to be able to function in the way it does now without access to the EU. Germany and France would very much like to become the financial centre of the EU and so it would look an obvious ploy.

The more I look the more the rewards seem opaque when compared to the possible risks. I feel it would have taken something quite huge to have resulted in us having our credit rating down graded, sterling taking such a drop and a potential loss of our financial industry, I feel had something else happened all of us leave or remain would have been unified in recognising that whatever that was could not possibly be a good thing.

pardewalegend

I have a theory for you
The government quote we will do all we can to make brexit work in the meantime the economy drops, house prices stagnate the pound to euro struggles the pound to dollar stays low
Fuel and food prices rocket, mini recession and in a year they announce we are staying in!!
This way they have given us our vote made us feel special but had no intention of ever leaving!!

IronHerb

Or all as you say happens and we leave.

pardewalegend

We will see

pardewalegend

The interesting thing is no one can predict the future

Hammerex

What about mystic Meg.

Dodger58

or Lawro?

pardewalegend

Lol

Whitehorsehammer

pardewalegend said:

I have a theory for you
The government quote we will do all we can to make brexit work in the meantime the economy drops, house prices stagnate the pound to euro struggles the pound to dollar stays low
Fuel and food prices rocket, mini recession and in a year they announce we are staying in!!
This way they have given us our vote made us feel special but had no intention of ever leaving!!

I like your thinking pardew. This is exactly what happened with the fox hunting ban. The anti hunt won the day and have the legal and moral high ground, so are happy, the hunters keep on hunting and are happy. win. win.

pardewalegend

This sort of thing goes on all the time it's one big game and in the mean time some major players are buying shares at very low prices and when they announce we are staying in BOOM those shares rocket and thanks very much!!!