The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

Dodger58

grey_til_I_dye said:

Dodger

What makes you think the UK doesn't need to negotiate with the EU?

What happens to all the issues covered by current EU agreements? They are just nullified? So, for example, all EU nationals are forced to leave the UK, and UK nationals resident in the EU to return to the UK?

Without any agreement with the EU, the UK will, at best, achieve WTO status in terms of trade.

It doesn't matter how large alternative trading blocks might be if

a) your current major trading partners are within the EU

b) you can't guarantee that any trading lost from the EU will be made up for outside it, and that you can get as good or better a trade deal than the UK currently enjoys under EU membership.

Grey,

Of course we will have to negotiate with the EU if we want any form of deal other than one controlled by WTO - but that goes both ways. My comment does not say we don't want/need to negotiate, what I have said is why should we negotiate when they want to. We have plenty of other deals that need addressing to keep us busy ...

Our current major trading partners are the EU today, but they weren't before the original Common Market. They are also a declining trading block who appear to be trying to make a deal difficult (to show others who may be tempted to leave that it won' be made easy). Business is often more readily closed by those who want to come to a deal, so let's get started with those then come around to the 'awkward squad'.

No I can't guarantee that any trade lost from the EU will be made up from outside, but we can make a good try to ensure we make a success of it.

Dodger58

MrsGrey said:

Dodger, you referred to German industrialists. Fair enough if you weren't implying an anti-German direction ;ok

I agree that many people MAY benefit from global trade. I never said otherwise. But others may suffer as aresult of voiding or changing existing contracts.

re. not negotiating with the EU first - I think it is vitally important that ALL the aspects of our membership of the EU (not just trade, but also the situation of UK and EU citizens who live and work in each others countries and in many cases have mixed families, of businesses that have branches and employ staff in other countries, of residents and tourists who have access to various levels of health care abroad, of fishing quotas, of farming subsidies, of scientific R+D grants, of air quality and water quality standards.... I could go on.)

My point is, after 40 years, so many aspects are intertwined. This has to be sorted out. and just saying 'yeah, yeah, we'll get round to it' as away of putting 2 fingers up to the EU would be petty and irresponsible in the extreme. This is no time or playing games, the consequences are too important. in my considered opinion.

Mrs Grey,

See above. Once we are outside the EU, it isn't just the UK that no-longer gets privileged treatment ...

As regards the 40 odd years of intertwining, you are 100% correct. That is the reason many voted to leave. The un-entwining is clearly not a 5 minute job. But to a large extend the speed at which we do it, once the EU have 'cut us adrift' is up to us.

IronHerb

IronHerb, you are correct. But there is also no reason why once we are no-longer members of the EU we have to negotiate with them first. They don't want to entertain any form of negotiation until we have left, fine, they can take their turn in the queue.

We are not out of the EU until the Article 50 negotiations are signed off

NEoldiron

As for negotiations:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/03/government-faces-worldwide-hunt-for-trade-negotiators-experts-wa/

On another note, I get the distinct impression that very few on here actually follow these links. ;hmm

Dodger58

Iron Herb:

Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.


Despite coming close (Clause 2 above), there is nothing here that actually says a new International Trade deal has to be agreed before we can leave. It does refer to a "framework for its future relationship", but that is not a Trade Deal.

Clause 3 attempts to cap the negotiations at 2 years unless the EU AND the UK unanimously agree to extend the period of time - I'd be surprised if both parties would agree to this (let alone the 27 individual EU states.

IronHerb

Dodger,

Until Clause 3 is signed off we are still members of the EU, as I understand it, and as such cannot negotiate unilateral agreements.

MrsGrey

Dodger58 said:

Most of the aspects you refer to are currently woven into the British Legal system,

But not all of it in primary legislation.

Which means that a good deal of 'law' can be changed very quickly, and with little fanfare, as it requires only amendment of secondary legislation.

Dodger58

IronHerb, I 100% agree with you, but it doesn't mean we have to negotiate with EU first. Just we can't negotiate with others. Now, if we want to get picky, we could claim "restraint of trade" ...

TheMadcapLaughs

Reasons to be cheerful:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-what-next-reasons-to-be-positive-eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-a7104016.html

grey_til_I_dye

Reasons not to...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36708774

mike

Madcap ;ok

The comments below that article just show how we are split on this.

In my lifetime(and that's a few years ;whistle)I don't think i have ever known anything else which has split the country so much.

MrsGrey

;hippo

grey_til_I_dye

Ravel49

Tomkins (TWC) vs Collins (IZZY)

TheMadcapLaughs

Grey, this shows what is expected short term. This negativity and "nervousness" is expected. No one knows the long term ramifications, absolutely impossible to predict. But I think we have a better chance of making a go of it long term out of The EU, more freedom, more opportunities. It does depend, though, on a strong political will. I think the current political vacuum has caused more uncertainty than Brexit. We need strong government making major decisions now, both in terms of a clear exit plan and with regards to the UK economy. The government should push all major proposed infrastructure projects forward and give the economy a shot in the arm. I think the economy needed this with or without the referendum. Many predicted a new World recession irrespective of the referendum or its result. Although it is obviously quite convenient to blame the Outers for all the current ills. I see the result as a clear indication that change is needed, people actually want to be listened to. I think if the Remainers had won then those at the top would have taken it as an indication that all was rosy, and things (IMO) quite clearly are not. From my perspective I just don`t see the EU as good value for money, whatever the figures £350 million, £140 million; for what?? What do these people do day in day out? I suppose for a detailed analysis I could read EU directive 38, article 44, subsection 19 paragraph A (amendment b4, sub amendment 19).

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/629190/fury-taxpayer-funded-wage-rise-EU-bosses-Jean-Claude-Juncker-Jonathan-Isaby

The mind boggles.

grey_til_I_dye

I see the result as a clear indication that change is needed, people actually want to be listened to.

As one of the 48% of the people not being listened to, I think we'll have to disagree on that one...

TheMadcapLaughs

grey_til_I_dye said:

I see the result as a clear indication that change is needed, people actually want to be listened to.

As one of the 48% of the people not being listened to, I think we'll have to disagree on that one...

Who said that????????????? ;puzzled

TheMadcapLaughs

And Grey us Outers are listening to the Remainers. We have no choice, what with the moaning and groaning, the doom and the gloom, the pie charts and graphs and experts, the ftse100 the ftse250 the pound the dollar the euro, the trade deal with them the tariffs on this, Scotland want out, Scotland want in! OMG, not listening you say, if only we had the choice................ ;wink

mike

Grey ;wave

I know this is a hypothetical question but as a matter of interest if the votes had been reversed and remain came out 52-48 % what would you be saying to any leave posters who thought it was unfair.?

SuzanneClaret

pardewalegend

Grey

Sometimes you have to listen to the majority, no matter how small the margins are

And to be honest I'm getting bored of the tantrums the remainers are still doing.

NEoldiron

And pards, I'm getting bored with the leavers accusing the Remainers of tantrums unless concern for one's country, its economy, its position in the world, its society, its young, its institutions, its FUTURE can be described as such.

I wonder if there aren't a few leavers out there who are sticking to their positions in spite of all the fallout that's beginning to occur, the negative predictions beginning to materialise, the realisation that they've been suckered by a pack of lies, because they might, just might, be beginning to actually think (to take some lines from Talking Heads).

"And you may ask yourself
Am I right? Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself, "My God! What have I done?"

Anyone for a tantrum?

IronHerb

Fair enough Pards but when the Leavers are day by day going back on the policies for campaigned for then I think I am entitled to have, as you put it, a tantrum.

NEoldiron

And another thing I'm really bored with is this idiotically flippant attitude the leavers seem to have adopted in the face of potentially the biggest crisis since the, errmm, last biggest crisis ( ;biggrin for the leavers)

Slaven_Cups_His_Beard

Unfortunately the whole thing is a mess, led by that incompetent buffoon who will now cowardly run away from making the real decisions and acting accordingly.

There were probably plenty of people on both sides who voted without having the amount of knowledge possibly required to make such an important decision.

There were others that were probably overloaded and many that only wanted to listen to one side of the argument.

I tell you what it has shown, the UK was/is being run/lead by a bunch of people that only appear to be in it for themselves, yes they all probably do some great work in the background, but look at the state of it all now?

Even if I could've voted, I wouldn't of, I have no intentions of coming back to the UK yet (in the foreseeable), therefore I wouldn't of wanted to influence any decision on the good folk who do live there and who it does or will affect day to day

MrsGrey

My biggest ;lol is reserved for Farage who has never had a good word to say about the EU, yet has been an MEP with his snout in the trough for years, during which he has hardly bothered with voting or attending because 'you can't reform from within', has resigned as UKIP leader but is going to remain as MEP and keep taking the ££££££

;doh

Slaven_Cups_His_Beard

yep sums it up, whats that a 73K a year job right there?

SuzanneClaret

Hypocrite

MrsGrey

;ok

Plus loads more in travel allowances, attendance allowance (although as President of that group he doesn't actually have to attend to get the allowance) expense allowances, subsistence allowances etc.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11725041

He is just a hypocrite, imo.

pardewalegend

Fair points

However we are OUT now regardless of someone wished they had done this and that, there is NO going back.

So the sooner it's accepted and we move in the better.

As for the leavers not coming through on certain issues this is nothing we have not seen before..

It normally happens after every general election ;ok