The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

grey_til_I_dye

Madcap

I assume it will cost billions as it is already having a negative impact on the UK economy, and that forecast is set to continue.

In order to be part of the single market, the UK will still have to accept current EU rules and laws.

How is that self-determination?

And if it ends up costing the UK economy billions, and it turns out the experts were right, that's OK with you, fair enough.

Seems like a high price to pay for what, in the end, will be very little difference.

Slojo

Looks like the German Car Manufacturers have made their minds up

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661255/Carry-trading-beg-German-car-bosses-Manufacturers-demand-Britain-allowed-continue-trading-EU-without-barriers.html

TheMadcapLaughs

I don`t think we will ever agree, and that`s fine. And I do accept that it may all go horribly wrong, it may have all gone horribly wrong with an in vote. I tend to think it was/is more likely to go horribly wrong staying in Europe as I have the past and present as evidence, to my non expert eyes it is failing, and my instinct tells me it will get worse.

grey_til_I_dye

Madcap

Given you were Leave and I was Remain, I'd imagine agreement would be unlikely. ;wink

thornburyiron

It only costs billions or whatever due to banks and hedge funds gambling with other people's money. If being in the EU is do good why is Greece bankrupt and Spain and Italy going that way.
Immigration was not the main or only thing that made people vote out. If you're happy living in Greece as a minor state of a federal German republic which it is heading for, then so be it.
My cousin's sister in law's niece (no idea if that makes her a relative) works in the EU in Brussels as a secretary/interpreter and her comments to her family were "vote remain if you want me to keep my job but leave if you don't want the UK to be part of "Germany" which is the long term goal".
May not come to pass in my lifetime but ever closer political and military union is the aim.

grey_til_I_dye

thorn

It isn't simply 'gambling' - it is a sign of a lack of confidence in the UK economy going forwards, and was an entirely predictable outcome.

The no-worriers will assure us it is a blip.

Others are concerned it may well be a long-term impact.

If you're happy living in Greece as a minor state of a federal German republic which it is heading for, then so be it.

I honestly don't know what that means, apart from it being anti-German hysteria.

Greece is a part of the European union, and I'm happy living in a country that is part of that.

As part of the EU, the UK trades with the EU.

After Brexit, the UK will trade with the EU.

Economically, what has changed?

Colchester_Iron

We don't NEED to be part of the single market to trade with the EU.

(I am not saying that we will not be part of the single market and, for what it's worth, if that means we have to accept a huge raft of EU rules then it may not have been worth leaving).

grey_til_I_dye

Col

No, we don't (although then trade terms might well be less favourable), but Boris seems convinced we will be.

And if the UK is part of the single market it will have to abide by EU rules regarding:

the free movement from one EU member country to another of goods, people, services and capital

https://fullfact.org/europe/what-single-market/

grey_til_I_dye

And replying to Boris' assurances, Michael Fuchs (no jokes, thank you...)

He (Boris) also suggested the UK would still have access to the EU's single market, a remark quickly challenged by the German Business Institute and Merkel ally Michael Fuchs, MP.

Mr Fuchs said: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free - you have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36637232

So let me get this right:

The UK will leave the EU, and save all that money, only it will spend it again as a charge for being in the single market.

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

As a win bonus, the pound and the UK economy will be flushed down the toilet for the foreseeable... ( http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36636853 )

Oh, and racists imagine they have been given a mandate to publicly flaunt their vile creeds. ( http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36634786 )

IronHerb

To vary a well known American phrase "Its immigration stupid"

grey_til_I_dye

Herb

;nonono

I'm assured it isn't...

IronHerb

I think you'll find it is ;wink

baracks_a_hammer

If I wanted to get some objectivity on a lot of the issues in play, I certainly wouldn't be relying on the BBC - it is more left wing than Ryan Giggs

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

That's an opinion (not one I share.)

Do you have news stories from other sources to show that the BBC have mis-reported these issues?

Moojor

grey_til_I_dye said:

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

Should also be noted, that we will of course no longer have any say in those controls/laws etc which are being created by the EU in regards to how it operates and trades with countries outside the EU.

baracks_a_hammer

grey_til_I_dye said:

baracks

That's an opinion (not one I share.)

Do you have news stories from other sources to show that the BBC have mis-reported these issues?

No that's not the point - I believe they will be more keen to give airtime to people like Fuchs who has the views he does - so the opposing views might not readily be shared at all

baracks_a_hammer

Moojor said:

grey_til_I_dye said:

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

Should also be noted, that we will of course no longer have any say in those controls/laws etc which are being created by the EU in regards to how it operates and trades with countries outside the EU.

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

brookingsirons

I voted remain and hope we get the chance to vote again as many who voted out
who I know now wish they had voted remain sad that so many got it wrong because it was all about immigration and they didn't look at the bigger picture .

right or wrong only time will tell .

MrsGrey

There was no mention that all £350 million would go to the NHS so where that came from I don't know. I do think I did see a quote where it was mentioned that "the £350 million saved could help fund the NHS" and something about how many hospitals or medical staff it could pay for, so maybe it was taken from that and then took on a life of its own as a promise, I would imagine as there has been articles about this with apologies from the leave camp, it must have been repeated as such.

If the Leave camp claim it was never said like that, but somebody got hold of the wrong end of the stick and it then took on a life of its own, they are lying.

If you look on the official Leave Campaign site, they have a page for downloading and printing their campaign posters and slogans etc. for individuals to use.

One such official poster says:
Lets give our NHS the £350m the EU takes every week, Vote Leave. Take Control.

There an implicit - perhaps even an explicit - promise that he NHS will be given £350m a week if we 'Leave'.




There are also headline slogans like this one 'Vote Leave to invest an extra £100m into the NHS every week' which is used on the official campaign website.

So this isn't just Farage going off-piste, or the press misquoting.

Yes, the small print rows back on this, saying things like 'it could enable the NHS to have billions more' and 'it could be used to abolish VAT on energy bills' but I maintain that these slogans with their implicit promises were deliberately misleading.

Vague rhetoric like 'Vote Leave. take back control' is one thing, but there were slogans and soundbytes (and things painted on the side of official campaign buses driving Gove and Johnson and other Leavers' around to rallies) which are very specific and imply promises, not possibilities and perhapses.

People like IDS who went along with it at the time and now after the event are trying to say it was all a misunderstanding are despicable, imo.

Anyone who want to can of course take the view that it was all a bit of misquoting that got out of hand (although why no Leavers like IDS spoke up at the time to put the record straight, I don't know). However, I think it was a deliberate strategy.

I just think its a shame people fell for it: it was always an empty promise, and undeliverable by the people who made it (even assuming, which I don't) that they made it in good faith.

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/campaign_resources
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_health

Moojor

baracks_a_hammer said:

Moojor said:

grey_til_I_dye said:

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

Should also be noted, that we will of course no longer have any say in those controls/laws etc which are being created by the EU in regards to how it operates and trades with countries outside the EU.

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

So why couldn't we just negoiate indenpendant deals with those countries from within the EU?

MrsGrey

baracks_a_hammer said:

Moojor said:

grey_til_I_dye said:

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

Should also be noted, that we will of course no longer have any say in those controls/laws etc which are being created by the EU in regards to how it operates and trades with countries outside the EU.

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

No, that would be the World Trade Organisation ;ok

The UK and EU countries individually are members of the WTO.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Trade_Organization

grey_til_I_dye

baracks_a_hammer said:

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

baracks

That is not what Boris is saying.

He stresses the UK will remain part of the single market, in which case the UK will continue to be bound by the relevant EU rules and legislation.

No one that I have seen is suggesting the UK would have individual arrangements with EU countries.

MrsGrey

Moojor said:

baracks_a_hammer said:

Moojor said:

grey_til_I_dye said:

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

Should also be noted, that we will of course no longer have any say in those controls/laws etc which are being created by the EU in regards to how it operates and trades with countries outside the EU.

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

So why couldn't we just negoiate indenpendant deals with those countries from within the EU?

I don't think so moojor. It appears (but I'm not an expert) that the EU as a whole negotiates EU-non EU trade agreements on behalf of its members.

;hmm

OutcastLondoner

Moojor

MrsGrey said:

Moojor said:

baracks_a_hammer said:

Moojor said:

grey_til_I_dye said:

The UK will take back control, except where it refers to the Single Market, where it will concede control to the EU.

Should also be noted, that we will of course no longer have any say in those controls/laws etc which are being created by the EU in regards to how it operates and trades with countries outside the EU.

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

So why couldn't we just negoiate indenpendant deals with those countries from within the EU?

I don't think so moojor. It appears (but I'm not an expert) that the EU as a whole negotiates EU-non EU trade agreements on behalf of its members.

;hmm

That's what I thought, though happy to be corrected. One of the reasons we should leave the EU is because as part of it you DON'T negotiate your own trade deals and have to accept what the EU as a whole has negotiated.

MrsGrey

;hmm

I suppose so - but I'd have though that as an entity with a much bigger market than the UK, the EU would have more negotiating power with another country than the UK might have and would be able to drive a harder bargain. I don't really know too much about this, though, so am happy to be given more info by any experts. ;wink

Moojor

;hmm

Yeah, has to be something we are missing here. Some part which explains why 1 country has better bargaining power than a collective of 28 countries.

MrsGrey

baracks_a_hammer said:

No that's not the point - I believe they will be more keen to give airtime to people like Fuchs who has the views he does - so the opposing views might not readily be shared at all

Well, in that report, Fuchs got those 3 sentences which were a direct counter view to what Boris said. Boris got about the same amount directly quoted, but also a link to a full (longer) piece he wrote in another newspaper.

Both of which are footnotes to the actual purpose of the article which is reporting Merkel's response to the referendum outcome.

Colchester_Iron

MrsGrey said:

;hmm

I suppose so - but I'd have though that as an entity with a much bigger market than the UK, the EU would have more negotiating power with another country than the UK might have and would be able to drive a harder bargain. I don't really know too much about this, though, so am happy to be given more info by any experts. ;wink

Not an expert but..


My (relatively small) understanding is that the EU does drive a hard bargain and is viewed as being relatively protectionist (hence 9(?) years to thrash out a trade deal with Canada).

Trade deals with the rest of the world would now be in our hands not the EU's. I did read somewhere that more than 50% of Canada's exports to the EU are destined for Britain.

In theory, we COULD be better off in our dealings with the rest of the world.

The stumbling block is our trading with the EU (currently free trading). The end game depends on the strength of position that you believe the UK holds in negotiations. We have a huge trade deficit with the EU so, in theory, the EU has more to lose (in pound note terms) than the UK through refusing to trade/imposing barriers to trade.

Again (sorry ;doh ) I read somewhere that 47% of the UK's exports are destined for the EU.

baracks_a_hammer

grey_til_I_dye said:

baracks_a_hammer said:

And on the flip side the EU will have no say in the controls/laws on how EU countries trade with the U.K. for the many EU companies who will still happy want to do so

baracks

That is not what Boris is saying.

He stresses the UK will remain part of the single market, in which case the UK will continue to be bound by the relevant EU rules and legislation.

No one that I have seen is suggesting the UK would have individual arrangements with EU countries.

And that's not what I've said either - if the eu block of countries wants to trade with the U.K. It will have no say on the controls which the uk will want on its side