WHICH 3 CLUBS WILL GO DOWN

IronHerb

Isn't that two clubs that have chased Marsh? Weren't Southampton interested too?

steve

We will end up with him ,I just know it

buffybegood

Kuchinghammer said:

The Kuching Relegatometer now has Leicester joining Southampton and Nottingham Forest for the drop.

That's my predicted bottom 3 atm as well with Leicester dropping like a stone.

It's odd, as both Leicester and Forest started the season terribly (they were the bottom 2 after 11 matches), seemed to have gotten out of trouble with some better results, but are both now on a poor run of form that has seen them drop right into trouble again.

MIAHammer

I think Leicester will survive probably with a win in their last game against us. Hopefully we will be at least 4 points ahead of the relegation spots by that last game so it doesn’t matter. Which leaves Everton or Leeds to join Forest and Southampton for the drop. I think it will be Leeds.

buffybegood

I think the long and the short of it is that it's so close down there, with so many genuine 6 pointers to be played, that it's likely to come down to the last match or two (our last two are indeed Leeds at home and Leicester away).

Although it's great that we've won 2 of our last 3 and now sit in 14th, 4 of our next 6 matches are against Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd so there's every chance we'll be back in the relegation places before the final 3 matches if we don't get points against Bournemouth and Palace.

Lukerz

Leicester look like appointing Dean Smith until the end of the season.

claretandbluesky

Leicester have a lot of six pointers to come

Wolves, Leeds, Everton and ourselves as six pointers
Newcastle, City and Liverpool as low expectations
leaving Fulham in the half chance category.

they need win at least three of those six pointers in my view and take some points from the others.

Ravel49

Seems very scattergun by Leicester, just to appoint anyone ASAP.
Could be their undoing.

Slacker

Haven’t really got a clue who’s going down but it is quite exciting to see, it’s just that it would be more exciting if we weren’t involved really.

Ironduke

What did mr motorvator give the palace boys?

alderz

I did this a month or so ago, but have updated with recent form. Each of these three tables are based on form from Post-WC / Past 10 Games / Past 6 Games continuing to the end of the season. Fun fact: we have the 7th form in the league based on past 6 matches (10 points taken), and 9th best in past 10 (15 points taken).

These tables all have us on >40 points come the end of the season, comfortably safe from relegation. They all also have Southampton and Leicester going down, and 2 of the 3 have Forest as the third side, and one has Everton.



As said last time I shared these, there are limitations with just looking at recent form, because it doesn't factor in quality of opposition. But I do find it interesting to see that we're one of the form teams based on recent fixtures, because it doesn't always feel that way.

MIAHammer

alderz said:

I did this a month or so ago, but have updated with recent form. Each of these three tables are based on form from Post-WC / Past 10 Games / Past 6 Games continuing to the end of the season. Fun fact: we have the 7th form in the league based on past 6 matches (10 points taken), and 9th best in past 10 (15 points taken).

These tables all have us on >40 points come the end of the season, comfortably safe from relegation. They all also have Southampton and Leicester going down, and 2 of the 3 have Forest as the third side, and one has Everton.



As said last time I shared these, there are limitations with just looking at recent form, because it doesn't factor in quality of opposition. But I do find it interesting to see that we're one of the form teams based on recent fixtures, because it doesn't always feel that way.

I will be absolutely amazed if we get to 40 points

alderz

So will I. But I was also amazed to learn we’re 7th in the form table for the past six games

buffybegood

Our next 6 games are rather tougher than the last 6 though. Would be very happy with 38 points, and confident we'd stay up with even 36.

Ironduke

alderz said:

So will I. But I was also amazed to learn we’re 7th in the form table for the past six games

is the dreaded VAR factored in your framework?

Kuchinghammer

Charts, numbers, pah. The Kuchingometer uses the "which dog will get to its food bowl first" method of prediction. Everton and Southampton are foodless, and Leicester and Nottingham Forest are battling over the last bowl. Next week it's dog nuts, so things may change... 😉

buffybegood

Analysis of the current state of play:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64985188

Yeoldhammer

How can it mathematically say 0% for Palace but explain that 39 points will guarantee safety when Palace are on 37 points ?

IronHerb

It doesn't does it? It's some bloke, probably Slackers mate down the pub, giving his opinion.

alderz

At the bottom they have this table from Gracenote saying that there's a 100% chance of staying up with 38 points, 99% of staying up with 37 points. My guess is that Gracenote will have produced a model and run it thousands of times and found that in their model Palace never went down, because the likelihood of them not getting 1 point AND six teams or more getting beyond them is extremely low.

PrestonHammer

alderz said:

At the bottom they have this table from Gracenote saying that there's a 100% chance of staying up with 38 points, 99% of staying up with 37 points. My guess is that Gracenote will have produced a model and run it thousands of times and found that in their model Palace never went down, because the likelihood of them not getting 1 point AND six teams opr more getting beyond them is extremely low.

That above is not music to Hamstews ears hahaha

Ironduke

on current form, Saints, Leeds and Everton or Leicester, but can all change, shame VAR hold us in its poor decisions..

claretandbluesky

I just had a look through the remaining fixtures and see it as follows regard points from remaining matches. Not all can achieve their best case scenario as some play each other.

Sundays match of Leeds and Bournemouth is interesting because for us we need Leeds to lose but if we win at palace I would like Leeds to win so it places Everton or Leicester in more danger of the drop.

West Ham Best10 Worst 3
Leeds - Best 5 Worst 0
Forest - Best 8 Worst 3
Leicester - Best 9 Worst 4
Everton - Best 8 Worst 4
Soton - Best 7 Worst 1

MIAHammer

According to Gracenotes after this past weekend we only have a 1% chance of going down.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64985188

BubblesNeverDies

Assuming we avoid relegation and manage to win the ECL cup, the question still remains as to what happens next season.
I can see it being another tough season especially if Rice leaves, the Palace match being almost an indication of how we'll play if he's not here.
The squad is going to need additions/replacements. Can Moyes be trusted with that considering his last round of purchases have been seriously underwhelming.
I think it's time for him and the club to come to an agreement whereby he can make a dignified departure as he's clearly run out of ideas. As to who replaces him, I've no idea.

Slacker

Losing your captain may be classed as unlucky, losing your manager AND your manager at the same time may be classed as suicidal.

buffybegood

A couple of big matches to look forward to this coming weekend. Although it's always possible Everton and Leeds can pick up something away against Brighton and Man City respectively, I'm sure Forest (home to Soton) and Leicester (away to Fulham) will really be targeting these games to get points on the board ahead of what appear to be a couple of tough fixtures before the final weekend. Should either fail to win, and Leicester would appear to have the harder task, they may be going into the final weekend unable to catch us 🤞🤞🤞.

After this coming weekend, Forest are away to Chelsea (OK, not the Chelsea of old, but still not something Forest will be looking forward to) and home to Arsenal whilst Leicester are at home to Liverpool and away to Newcastle, so it could be tough for either team to pick up points in those 2 rounds of fixtures making this weekend's matches increasingly important.

PrestonHammer

Southampton, Leeds and Everton are going down. Their fixtures are pretty horrific.

buffybegood

buffybegood said:

After this coming weekend, Forest are away to Chelsea (OK, not the Chelsea of old, but still not something Forest will be looking forward to)......

I take that back, Forest are probably licking their lips 😂🤣😂

claretandbluesky

How long until Lampard accepts he is not cut out for football management?