January transfer window 2019/20 season

OldCastleSwift

If it's Allen and Sander Berge, for example, then I'm ok with him coming in. In our situation, it wouldn't be a bad thing to have an experienced Wilshere/Noble alternative in the pool of midfield options, but we need some more strength and steel in the middle of the park.

Hammerex

Hamstew, I agree that 40pts is usually about the cut off point that determines
survival or relegation, but not always, and if we carry on playing like we are
at the moment, we will be dragged into a relegation fight for survival.

WHU_Champo_league_in_7_years

Sander Berge is the type of signing that could really be a coup and a hidden gem, or it could be a player from a minor league (all due respect) that doesnt make the step up

Personally I'd be all for it, fits the mould of progressive signings mid table clubs need to make but I'd be well surprised if his value isnt closer to £20mil than the £10m we apparently bid

Think it's more of a summer move for us to go for, although more parties will be interested I'm sure

baracks_a_hammer

I don’t think we will be paying an 8 figure sum for any player in this window In spite of all the wild rumours flying around everywhere

WHU_Champo_league_in_7_years

Hence why I think itll be more a move for the summer

OldCastleSwift

Assuming he hasn't gone anywhere before then, which is my fear :ok:

alderz

baracks_a_hammer said:

I don’t think we will be paying an 8 figure sum for any player in this window In spite of all the wild rumours flying around everywhere

I wondered about this, so I took a look into it.

Since January 2010, we have signed 29 players in the winter transfer window. This is at an average of of £1.6m per head. Our top five most expensive January signings last decade were:

£10.8m - Robert Snodgrass - 2017
£9.18m - Jordan Hugill - 2018
£8.28m - Jose Fonte - 2017
£4.32m - Sam Byram - 2015
£2.61m - Gary O'Neil - 2011

Only a further 4 signings cost more than £1m.

In the past four winter windows we have made more money than we have spent.

2018/19 - £450k profit
2017/18 - £24.27m profit
2016/17 - £7.29m profit
2015/16 - £730k profit
2014/15 - £1.71m loss
2013/14 - £630k loss
2012/13 - £270k loss
2011/12 - £3.04m loss
2010/11 - £2.99m loss
2009/10 - £2.34m loss

My interpretation of all of this is that the club invest in the summer, and don't tend to keep a pot back for a rainy day (January). Even when we have recouped money - 2017/18 and 2016/17 - we haven't invested it.

2017/18 is particularly interested as it was Moyes' window with us. Ayew, Sakho & Fonte went out for a combined £34.53m. We brought in Hugill for £9.18m, Evra on a free, and spent £1.08m on Joao Mario's loan.

baracks_a_hammer

alderz said:

baracks_a_hammer said:

I don’t think we will be paying an 8 figure sum for any player in this window In spite of all the wild rumours flying around everywhere

I wondered about this, so I took a look into it.

Of course you did

OldCastleSwift

Thanks for that alderz :ok:

So the message is pretty clear around the big money rumours surrounding Gabigol, Berge and Piatek...

Hamstew

Loss

baracks_a_hammer

This window, the daves are only likely to address the burning platforms. Arguably the only things which might fall into that category are Roberto and the threat of relegation. IMO the the daves will already be happy that the latter will not happen. So it is only the Roberto situation they will definitely resolve I think. They might not even bother looking for a r/b if they think Johnson is close to a return and can deputise there. In theory even Reid could - he’s done it before. Pretty much all significant transfer activity then will shift to the summer IMO

OldCastleSwift

baracks :ok: I think we'll see Randolph and a protracted deal for Joe Allen. c. £10m spend which will probably be just about enough to stay up.

alderz

From what I've read, it seems as though Middlesbrough want £4m for Darren Randolph, Stoke want £8m for Joe Allen, and Genk want £18m for Sander Berge. I think it's unlikely that we would spend £30m this month, particularly after spending record sums in the summer.

The only way I can see those deals happening is if we sell someone, and the only person I have seen rumoured with big money interest is Issa Diop.

I could potentially see us cashing in on Diop for £40m or so and investing in those players, but honestly I think it's more likely that we sign Randolph and then maybe bring in a loan or a free from elsewhere.

Hamstew

Ex says he's (Randy) signed.

alderz

Hamstew said:

Ex says he's (Randy) signed.

Might have to mod this

PrestonHammer

Alderz, can Baz use your graphs?

Bazshuayi

Sander Berge was heavily linked to Liverpool prior to the Jan window opening. Whilst it always seems we have several targets in the same position and low ball bid (then move on), if we genuinely want a decent potential def. mid. we need to step up. That said, if a team like Liverpool come calling there's not much we can do (outside of hoping a player sees a better chance of 1st team football with us). Short version = get on it!

Bazshuayi

PrestonHammer said:

Alderz, can Baz use your graphs?

Hey! I can ask for myself (or steal) if I want to :whistle:

I would have to take into account on any given season how well or poorly we were doing in the league and factor in how prices have been inflated to get a more rounded view.

This would severely cut into my time and resources plus limit my involvement in matters pertaining to Liverpool

Lukerz

Chap off Sky says Chelsea are very hopeful of signing a PL CB this window. The guy would not confirm who as he has been ‘sworn to secrecy’ but said it is a rival PL club, he is young & promising, would cost at least £50m, & all agents involved are very confident the deal will be done.

Diop?

Cuz1

Are we Chelsea rivals ?

Adam

Soyuncu?

WHU_Champo_league_in_7_years

Think £50mil would be a good deal for us imo, just wish it wasnt in january as we would 100% need to get one if we sell him

Either way I dont really believe the rumour

Lukerz

Cuz1 said:

Are we Chelsea rivals ?

Depends if he means competitor or ‘London’ rival.

McHammer

McHammer

Bazshuayi

I doubt Leics would contemplate selling Soyuncu given their league position and so soon after flogging Maguire. The only alternative to Diop I can think of would be Ake. Theyve been linked with a buy back price for him and I think there's a time limit on it.

I'd have thought they'd be prioritizing forwards (Rudiger/Christensen/Tomori/Zouma/Azp can all play CB)

If it is Diop, maybe they'll attempt to part ex with Batshuayi :weep: (I have to go there at least once every TF window)

IronHerb

Ake imo.

Adam

It probably is Ake actually because of the buy back clause. Although, Bournemouth are even less of a rival to Chelsea than us or Leicester!

ASLEFshrugged

The Guardian (unusually slightly more reliable than other newspapers) says that the Gedson Fernandes deal has stalled, we wanted an 18-month loan deal with an option to buy but it seems that Everton, Man U, Lyon and AC Milan are also interested so Benfica might he hoping for a better offer.

As alternatives they offer Joe Allen (again), Sander Berge (again) and a new name, Marseille’s Morgan Sanson although with Marseille currently 2nd and chasing a Champions League spot I'm not sure why he'd be interested in coming here.

Randolph's transfer has also stalled because of the thigh injury that has kept him out since the end of November.

Finally they mention that we could try to loan Nathaniel Clyne until the end of the season and as he's not even been on the bench once this season he must be desperate to leave Anfield. Sad when you think that in 2016-17 he played more Premier League minutes than any other Liverpool player.

OldCastleSwift

Sanson was linked in the summer, so not a new name for us, and not surprising the rumour as resurfaced. Reported to be valued at £30m, there's absolutely no way we're spending that this month, let alone on one player.

It's rumoured that we're trying to get both Fernandes and Gabigol on an inital loan with an option to buy. I assume Gabigol would be a six month loan and then he'll be our marquee signing in the summer, and and Fernandes would be an 18-month loan and then he'll be the big name in summer 2021. But I expect neither to happen.

Piatek was linked yesterday, but reports this morning are that Villa have bid £24m for him, which again we can't/won't compete with.

Clyne is coming off the back of a major injury and hasn't played competitive football since; it'd be a big risk but given that Liverpool are likely to allow him to leave on loan, I can see this one happening.