The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

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Comments

  • IronHerbIronHerb
    Tom,

    From the FT on 29th June

    The City of London should no longer be able to clear euro-denominated trades, the French president said on Tuesday, adding to post-Brexit fears.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8e0c44a-3d89-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html#axzz4En9SrzK7

    This is some ridiculous figure of 1 trillion Euro a day I think.
  • thornburyironthornburyiron
    All I was trying to get across was that she knows first hand that a federal state of Europe is the aim of the EU. Her opinion is that she doesn't like the idea or the thought of it.
    As far as I'm aware she's not expressed any other views or details.
  • Tomw85Tomw85
    Ironherb, sorry but you need to subscribe to be able to read the article so my response is without having read it. The headline which I could see says that the French president wants to rule out London clearing euro's. This doesn't mean it is law, also if he does get his way then to me that is just another example of the EU not being democratic and in fact being very protectionist.
  • ASLEFshruggedASLEFshrugged
    thornburyiron said:

    As I posted a couple of weeks ago my tenuous relative who is a translator at the EU in Brussels said vote remain if you want her to keep her job or leave if you don't want to be part of a German led federal state of Europe. They've already applied to join NATO as such so they're determined to do it.

    Because the French can't wait to part of a German led federal stare of Europe. Laugh, I nearly.......see Derek and Clive.

  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    edited July 2016
    pardewalegend said:

    Don't worry Thorn
    Theresa May herself could log on here and face an arguement on her credentials

    Presumably from you, since she was for Remain.

    thorn

    How can she possibly 'know' that?

    Is it some kind of secret plan that she has found out about?

    Or is it what she has surmised?

    And if so, without knowing what information she had access to, it's very hard to take as anything other than an 'I reckon'.
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    thornburyiron said:

    All I was trying to get across was that she knows first hand that a federal state of Europe is the aim of the EU. Her opinion is that she doesn't like the idea or the thought of it.

    It's part of the stated aim: ever closer Union. No inside knowledge needed.

    Particularly as the UK exemption from that was a headline agenda item in the recent negotiations. And was agreed.

    I'm now a bit puzzled as to why you have quoted it/her comment twice.



  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    tom

    What is undemocratic about protectionism?

    I would assume the whole point of a trade bloc was to be protectionist.

    If the UK isn't in the EU, why would the EU look to protect its status as a financial hub by giving it access to privileges available to a trade bloc it has voted to leave?
  • Tomw85Tomw85
    Grey

    Because it is them saying do as we want or it will cost you. I understand wanting to protect your own interests but it was due to it being based in London that it was able to grow as it has with our geographical location, laws, infrastructure and language. Now they want to make money from it.

    Where was our protection when the Chinese were dumping cheap steel into the EU market?
  • AdMeus_CaputFiliusAdMeus_CaputFilius
    IronHerb said:

    Tom,

    From the FT on 29th June

    The City of London should no longer be able to clear euro-denominated trades, the French president said on Tuesday, adding to post-Brexit fears.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8e0c44a-3d89-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html#axzz4En9SrzK7

    This is some ridiculous figure of 1 trillion Euro a day I think.



    IH,

    Note the underlined part - that is his opinion, it does not mean they won't or it will change anytime soon if at all - and he does not make policy on this, he is working to position Paris to take on the role if it happens, which is something the French have wanted for years and have tried to unsuccessfully to do in the past, nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with improving the economy and power of France. I recall there have been two or three bun fights about this in the past and the Financial institutions in London basically gave the French a long glance and then shrugged their shoulders and carried on.

    In the world I work in there are two words which dictate interpretation in any documentation - Shall is an imperative, therefore an instruction. In which case you do something to comply, otherwise you will find yourself on notice pending suspension if you do not comply within a given timeframe.

    Should is a choice as it is pointing to what someone considers (in their opinion) to be the best course of action, you can if you want but if you don't it is not a compliance issue, because you don't have to.

    Of course the person telling you that you Should/Shouldn't do something may have a different opinion to you or others or ulterior motive to gain an advantage from your decision. SO it does not mean you should follow their advice.
  • AdMeus_CaputFiliusAdMeus_CaputFilius
    Where was our protection when the Chinese were dumping cheap steel into the EU market?
    Well, I am pretty sure that one of the reasons that the UK Gov't did not (could not) step in with financial help was in case the rest of the EU saw it as giving state aid which is illegal unless agreed/authorised by the EU. So given all the EU members Steel industries would have suffered I can see they would have allowed it.

    State Aid is agreed for some areas between EU members and there are lots of rules and regulations regarding it. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/state-aid
  • AdMeus_CaputFiliusAdMeus_CaputFilius
    UK technology firm ARM Holdings is to be bought by Japan's Softbank for £24bn ($32bn) it confirmed on Monday.
    This has now happened
    ARM said it would keep its headquarters in Cambridge and that it would at least double the number of its staff over the next five years.
    So not leaving then
    Sources close to the deal say the Japanese company considers ARM well placed to exploit the so called "internet of things" which may see microchips embedded in whole new categories of household and business devices.
    Also looking to the future.

    I dare say that the value of the pound currently played a part, but no doubt all those new 'free trade deals' on the board outside the EU was also a consideration.
  • Dodger58Dodger58
    SoftBank would have gone through with the purchase whether Brexit happened or not. The change in currency rate was not a factor in the deal.

    ARM is very much a Global business. Significant investment is already ongoing in Cambridge (and other ARM locations), this will continue and be expanded further.
  • IronHerbIronHerb
    So?
  • ASLEFshruggedASLEFshrugged
    As the world's 5th largest GDP it's no surprise major nations want to agree trade deals but there's no guarantee the deals on offer will be better than the ones we had with the EU. And we're still part of the EU
  • ASLEFshruggedASLEFshrugged
    Chamberlain said ''peace in our time''. Wilson said ''this won't effect the pound in your pocket'' and Cameron said ''no ifs, no buts, no third runway''.
  • WhitehorsehammerWhitehorsehammer
    pardew. Germany can't have trade deal talks with us, they are part of the EU, so can only negotiate deals with UK in agreement with the other 27 counties.
  • baracks_a_hammerbaracks_a_hammer
    Whitehorsehammer said:

    pardew. Germany can't have trade deal talks with us, they are part of the EU, so can only negotiate deals with UK in agreement with the other 27 counties.

    Correct except for the fact that the EU is pretty much Germany dictated - who exactly of the remaining countries are going to object if they engage in dialogue with the U.K.?
  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    baracks

    They can't enter into bilateral agreements, so I can't see what the dialogue would be like, except

    UK - Psst want a trade deal?

    Germany - Sorry, I'm in a relationship.
  • WhitehorsehammerWhitehorsehammer
    26 other countries baracks! The EU will negotiate with us as one. But that won't happen until we have a plan and that could be a long way off yet.
  • Dodger58Dodger58
    Which is also one of the reasons EU Trade Deals take so long to get ratified ...
  • thornburyironthornburyiron
    Or Grey Germany will say "the others will do as they're told as usual so let's talk".
  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    thorn

    I'm sorry, I don't share your view of Germany.
  • baracks_a_hammerbaracks_a_hammer
    I could be wrong (grey, for obvious reasons you may know better), but when it came to the Greek bail out loans, the mouthpiece for the euro denominated eu countries was merkel, was it not? I don't remember juncker taking the lead?..
  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    baracks

    But, for me, that's exactly what it was, a mouthpiece, speaking for the whole of the EU. (Although she was certainly a hate figure for many Greeks.)

    I'm not suggesting Germany doesn't have more general influence than, say, Portugal (or Greece...) , but n the end, they can't force their will on other EU members.
  • claretandblueskyclaretandbluesky
    The potential stitch up with regard EU trade talks is that once we trigger article 50 we leave automatically after two years, they also suggest we need exit before trade talks can commence, but even without that second aspect being implemented the stitch us is that they allow the two years to pass as the nearer we get to it and beyond it the financial services industry loses the ability to be able to function in the way it does now without access to the EU. Germany and France would very much like to become the financial centre of the EU and so it would look an obvious ploy.

    The more I look the more the rewards seem opaque when compared to the possible risks. I feel it would have taken something quite huge to have resulted in us having our credit rating down graded, sterling taking such a drop and a potential loss of our financial industry, I feel had something else happened all of us leave or remain would have been unified in recognising that whatever that was could not possibly be a good thing.
  • IronHerbIronHerb
    Or all as you say happens and we leave.
  • HammerexHammerex
    What about mystic Meg.
  • Dodger58Dodger58
    or Lawro?
  • WhitehorsehammerWhitehorsehammer
    pardewalegend said:

    I have a theory for you
    The government quote we will do all we can to make brexit work in the meantime the economy drops, house prices stagnate the pound to euro struggles the pound to dollar stays low
    Fuel and food prices rocket, mini recession and in a year they announce we are staying in!!
    This way they have given us our vote made us feel special but had no intention of ever leaving!!

    I like your thinking pardew. This is exactly what happened with the fox hunting ban. The anti hunt won the day and have the legal and moral high ground, so are happy, the hunters keep on hunting and are happy. win. win.
  • ASLEFshruggedASLEFshrugged
    I wouldn't suggest telling the French that Germany dominates the EU, you might get a rather hostile response.
This discussion has been closed.