The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50
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Comments
I have two daughters, both in their late twenties, one works for a Danish company the other for a Belgium company, both are UK based.
They, and others in the company move regularly and freely between the UK and Belgium and Denmark, there is a mix of those nationalities in the offices here and in Europe. They also move goods in their own vans back and forth a couple of times a week. This all works smoothly and has done for years.
If we leave will their Dutch and Belgium colleagues be able to continue working here and will my daughters be allowed to work there with the end of free movement of labour? Also trade tariffs will need to somehow be negotiated for the movement of goods and this will require border checks and no doubt lots of additional paperwork. Both firms are deeply worried that their successful companies could be seriously affected by the change and this is already holding them back on new investment.
Many of my wife's family are farmers and they benefit from farm subsidies which are EU based and calculated. The levels have mostly been set over the years by the pressure of French farmers. I know we pay into the fund but its seems that most farmers (and the NFU) believe that any replacement scheme by the UK government would not be as beneficial as the EU payments. Many farmers (not all) find it hard to keep going and loosing these subsidies would cause many problems.
Just my own views.
There has through history been astonishing atrocities participated in by whole nations, atrocities that the people themselves could hardly believe when reflecting afterwards, as in the case of Nazi Germany, yet the power of division through information propaganda, the propensity for people to accept what is presented as fact should never be underestimated. Once this is acknowledged democracy can appear a little fanciful in practice.
One way of seeing it is that politics is a part of life and always has been, politics is about power and controlling power has taken different shapes throughout time, currently there is an idea called democracy which is used as a tool for politicians to negotiate power, we accept it as we must, just as people had to accept rule from Kings and Queens, we work within the rules as demanded but do not really believe in the game but decide to exercise our own values in our own small sphere of interconnection, to show kindness, consideration and community. The politicians continue to wrestle for power between themselves.
I lived in England after I left Belgium (in 1989) and in 2004 I moved to Switzerland for a job with a big multinational company in Basel, and, for the record, I moved a couple of miles down the road and across the border back into the EU in France (Alsace) in 2009 when I started to think about going freelance in my chosen profession and occupation which is writing, editing and copywriting.
Anyway with all the afore-mentioned out of the way, while I no longer have the vote (too many years out of the UK) I still feel this issue very keenly and I really do understand many of the arguments for and against. Mrs Swiss, by the way, is a rabid outer - convinced that UK will do better outside than in.
I think the longer term arguments are more important than the shorter term arguments. The key argument that everyone might agree with is whether the UK will have more influence inside than out on world events such as dealing with the US, China, Russia, migrants policy, defence, wars, terrorism etc etc. For me that encompasses most if not all of the other issues. I have to say that staying in makes us stronger in that sense.
Look at it also in football terms. I know that it's not a precise analogy, but every football supporter of almost every British team wants to see their team "play in Europe". For that to happen of course we don't need to be members of the EU but it's significant that this is the level that everyone wants for their foptball team. It's in our blood that we don't stop at Calais. We didn't stop there in 1944 thank God. And As football supporters we dont think we are really champions - like the Man Us of this world - when we win the PL but only when we win the CL.
Being out of Europe will certainly have an impact on foreign players as it will on workers like me who will lose the benefits of being able to use French social services because we had been entitled in the UK, for the money will flow elsewhere, as inevitably there will be extra costs attached to living and working in the EU and vice versa without that brilliant Briritsh contribution to Europe, the single market. Many Brits abroad will also lose their jobs - to Europe we will look a bit like the USA (and if Boris has his way we will deserve it) A more nationalist government in the UK could bring in taxes for foreigners (especially differential property taxes), not possible within the EU, that will make it difficult for cross border employment or recruitment. Jobs that depend on European markets will suffer from marginal changes to the conditions of those jobs. Currency exchange rates will change, again marginally. The EU has to favour its own. Of course it does.
On the other hand - we were never in Schengen so no change there on passports and queues at borders. We never had the euro, which arguable was a big Brussels mistake, I'll grant that. It wasn't necessary for us but we were right not to join at the time, but we wont be right about that forever. We have always been able to decide these things. I go across 3 or 4 national borders a week (Switzerland IS in Schengen although not in the EU) and I havent been stopped or searched in over 5 years. I feel a sense of shame and disgrace when I see the Calais situation, caused by us not accepting our responsibilities as a civilised nation and apparently Christian country. these people are not terrorists they are exyctly like you me and Dimi Payet, but unfortunately it represents a nasty anti-foreigner and certainly anti-immigrant policy that this government seems to think is fair play. I definitely don't. If we were more Europe-minded it would be better but no government has really bothered for two generations to praaise the benefits of a united Europe. We (or our fathers) all know what a divided Europe looks like. I hope the next generation won't lose the memory altogether because we are not doing well in keeping it alive..
I feel sad now, I think there's now a chance that we will leave the EU if we are not careful and lose our marbles, and I think Cameron is the most opportunistic PM ever. He has risked the future of this country to try and keep the Tory party together. He and Boris deserve each other.
My last point - something my father told me at the time of the last referendum (which was the first time I voted in the UK (to stay in BTW)) was this. Consider, outside the UK, who
Sorry to be so long. And I don't even have a vote, the UK is the only country in Europe to disfranchise its nationals when they live abroad for a while.
Were I unsure that would certainly of given me pause for thought. I had not reflected on just how this whole referendum business has come about due to a split in the Tory party.
ammerinaberdeen.
We really aren't 'great' any more. In any sense of the word. imo.
And out, we will be even smaller and more peripheral.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838
Know what swiss meant.
;ok
;ok
Good point, I read something similar to that the other day. Putin is urging Brexit. ;hmm
None of them I suspect
In other words, they are speculating, which pretty much anyone can do
My radio station this morning mentioned the thing about 36 ftse bosses signing a letter saying exiting would affect uk jobs. However the same station made no mention of the other 64 bosses. So I for one render that particular story as pretty much meaningless.
We can't rely on newspapers, unless we want to just read things that confirm our existing prejudices. The Sun, Daily Mail, Times, Sunday Times + Telegraph are all pretty much pushing an 'out' agenda, I think. The Express had nailed its colours to the 'Out' mast. Murdoch is himself campaigning for 'out'.
The Guardian, FT and Mirror are all 'In'.
So all their reporting will be (to a greater or lesser degree) biased.
OK, but then that rather implies that there is nothing anyone can say who will move you from whatever your current position is.
Which is fine, but rather puts the tin hat on the idea that people can make an informed decision, if everything is to be dismissed as 'speculation'.
I'll start us off:
Sainsbury, Tesco, Morrisons, Lloyds Bank and M&S have all said they don't want to get involved in politics, it is 'a matter for the British people to decide.'
Barclays said it is against company policy to sign such letters, but that it is “in the best interest of customers” to stay in the EU.
So they haven't actually put forward anything that counters the points in the letter. They are just ;sofa in case it upsets their customers.
However their will be a lot of headlines and the newspapers who want out will make it look closer to make it look a possibility if only everyone gets out to vote, the bookies have already cut the price for out considerably and if that trend continues the price for in may get bigger and be worth an investment.
At present you can get odds of 2-5 to stay in, which for those not familiar with bookmakers odds means if you put £5 on the UK to stay in and that is what happens then you win £2 plus your £5 stake, totalling a £7 return, and so £5000 would return an instant £7000. As there are no interest rates worth speaking of at present that is not bad..... If you feel it really is a one horse race. Of course many one horse races have turned out to be anything but, Scottish independence was eventually much much closer than imagined at one point.
Business association wants in, the FT and I think the Economist seem to be in. But are they going to have any sway with voters? Especially with both FT and the Economist behind paywalls.
In reality, for me at least I think that there are more reasons to stay in than to leave.
It is a very emotive subject, there will be winners and losers whichever way the vote goes, the trouble is, in my opinion, we can't second guess the real impact either vote will have until it has happened.
So it's a stay in vote for me. ;ok
That's kind of where I am.
Personally, we benefit from being part of the EU, and whilst I wouldn't necessarily make a purely 'selfish' decision, unless the 'Out' campaign can provide pretty incontrovertible evidence to show that exit would benefit the majority of the UK, I will remain in the In camp.
Now you might say they are only speculating and what on earth do they know. Personally I'll take business leaders' informed and expert view of what is likely to happen to businesses and the economy over any politician or newspaper baron.
You might also say what about the other 64. Well there might be any number of reasons they are not publically nailing their colours to the fence. Or you could say where is the letter signed by 36 of them saying we are better out than in?
Looks to me that if you wonder what business thinks about the debate from an economic standpoint that letter is your answer.
I've seen some good arguments for out, but all of it is ifs and maybes. What is certain for me, is our negotiating position in the European market will be drastically hindered if we leave. The pound is already weakening since the uncertainty we don't need more expensive prices for the majority of our trade too.
I'm 100% in and nothing would change my view.
It is a real possibility the we will be losing British jobs as potential cuts are likely to exceed the number of EU nationals in our company. This is not scaremongering but a reality that faces my company.
Now everyone is entitled to their view on the issue from a philosophical perspective but it cannot be claimed to be in the least significant from a monetary perspective.
As a footnote I hope this potentially emotional element of the debate distinguishes between EU migrants and those from the rest of the world, and also distinguishes between migrants and so called asylum seekers/refugees (which by definition generally come from outside the EU) and also distinguishes between migrants and 'illegal' immigrants (which again by definition generally come from outside the UK). When you do this, then compare the amount of EU migrants with the amount of EU migrants who cost our economy rather than contribute to it, the whole thing becomes, in my mind, a non issue as far as this referendum is concerned.
However equally, it should be up to the "in" campaign to prove beyond doubt, that whatever Dave has cobbled together will right the many wrongs which have made the EU the shambles that it is (IMO).
I'm still waiting for that and am happy to wait until 23rd June till I decide where to place that tick
I believe he has not at all properly thought through what real effect his changes will make, if they can even be rebutted and whether in practice whether the shambles will stop being a shambles - so he has a bit of a cheek therefore to insinuate that the "outs" haven't thought through the potential fall out of an exit.
;hmm
;lol