The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

ammerinaberdeen

Out OUt Out. Didn't want in when Heath joined. Europe needs us more than we need them. As many have said it now a global economy as I am certain we are more than capable of negotiating with anyone We are GREAT BRITAIN!

MrsGrey

swiss - is there a line missing near the end of your (very interesting) post?

ammerinaberdeen.

We really aren't 'great' any more. In any sense of the word. imo.

And out, we will be even smaller and more peripheral.

grey_til_I_dye

it now a global economy as I am certain we are more than capable of negotiating with anyone

Not in the opinion of the chief executives and chairs of a number of the UK's top companies:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

grey_til_I_dye

From this article: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35628733

Credit risks

Meanwhile, ratings agency Moody's said: "The economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefits."

Investment would suffer due to political uncertainty and exports would decline unless a new trade deal was struck with the EU, the credit agency said.

Moody's said it would consider downgrading the UK's credit rating - which affects how expensive it is for the government to borrow money - if the country voted to leave the EU.

However, another credit agency Fitch said Brexit would be "only moderately negative" if trade deals were secured.

"only moderately negative" if trade deals were secured doesn't sound that good, especially given that the EU would be in the driving seat in terms of a trade deal.

Hammerex

Excellent post Swiss. ;ok

Slaven_Cups_His_Beard

Agreed.

Know what swiss meant.

;ok

Swissiron

MrsGrey said:

swiss - is there a line missing near the end of your (very interesting) post?

yes there was thanks you - I only just noticed this - my point (and my father's point 40 years ago was that if you look awy from this country and ask our international friends about this you will discover that all our enemies want us to leave, and all our friends want us to stay
;ok

MrsGrey

;ok

Good point, I read something similar to that the other day. Putin is urging Brexit. ;hmm

baracks_a_hammer

grey_til_I_dye said:

it now a global economy as I am certain we are more than capable of negotiating with anyone

Not in the opinion of the chief executives and chairs of a number of the UK's top companies:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

And how many of these people have first hand experience of what happens when a major country leaves the EU??

None of them I suspect

In other words, they are speculating, which pretty much anyone can do

My radio station this morning mentioned the thing about 36 ftse bosses signing a letter saying exiting would affect uk jobs. However the same station made no mention of the other 64 bosses. So I for one render that particular story as pretty much meaningless.

MrsGrey

On the subject of 'informing ourselves' ... what do people think is the right (best) way to go about it.

We can't rely on newspapers, unless we want to just read things that confirm our existing prejudices. The Sun, Daily Mail, Times, Sunday Times + Telegraph are all pretty much pushing an 'out' agenda, I think. The Express had nailed its colours to the 'Out' mast. Murdoch is himself campaigning for 'out'.

The Guardian, FT and Mirror are all 'In'.

So all their reporting will be (to a greater or lesser degree) biased.

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

OK, but then that rather implies that there is nothing anyone can say who will move you from whatever your current position is.

Which is fine, but rather puts the tin hat on the idea that people can make an informed decision, if everything is to be dismissed as 'speculation'.

MrsGrey

baracks_a_hammer said:

My radio station this morning mentioned the thing about 36 ftse bosses signing a letter saying exiting would affect uk jobs. However the same station made no mention of the other 64 bosses. So I for one render that particular story as pretty much meaningless.

So this is an opportunity to find out more about the non-signers, to inform ourselves if there is another side to the arguments that the signers have put forward in the letter. We can't just assume it means they are against what the letter said.

I'll start us off:

Sainsbury, Tesco, Morrisons, Lloyds Bank and M&S have all said they don't want to get involved in politics, it is 'a matter for the British people to decide.'
Barclays said it is against company policy to sign such letters, but that it is “in the best interest of customers” to stay in the EU.

So they haven't actually put forward anything that counters the points in the letter. They are just ;sofa in case it upsets their customers.

claretandbluesky

Debating various views and points aside I think there may appear a real chance to make money from those Bookie chaps. My prediction is that it will not even be that close and that the split will likely be 65-35 to stay in. I say this as I just feel that we as human beings are just too risk averse and as the pressure builds the undecided yet that will shape the vote will plump to stay in.

However their will be a lot of headlines and the newspapers who want out will make it look closer to make it look a possibility if only everyone gets out to vote, the bookies have already cut the price for out considerably and if that trend continues the price for in may get bigger and be worth an investment.

At present you can get odds of 2-5 to stay in, which for those not familiar with bookmakers odds means if you put £5 on the UK to stay in and that is what happens then you win £2 plus your £5 stake, totalling a £7 return, and so £5000 would return an instant £7000. As there are no interest rates worth speaking of at present that is not bad..... If you feel it really is a one horse race. Of course many one horse races have turned out to be anything but, Scottish independence was eventually much much closer than imagined at one point.

OutcastLondoner

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

Business association wants in, the FT and I think the Economist seem to be in. But are they going to have any sway with voters? Especially with both FT and the Economist behind paywalls.

Slojo

Money markets hate uncertainty someone only has to sneeze and they fall. They have been this low and much lower in the past so I would expect them to recover over the next week or so.

krapnotpu

Until recently, I was convinced that I was pro staying in, the problem that I have in making a real informed decision, is that whichever way we vote, someone somewhere will be adversely affected.
In reality, for me at least I think that there are more reasons to stay in than to leave.
It is a very emotive subject, there will be winners and losers whichever way the vote goes, the trouble is, in my opinion, we can't second guess the real impact either vote will have until it has happened.
So it's a stay in vote for me. ;ok

grey_til_I_dye

krapnotpu

That's kind of where I am.

Personally, we benefit from being part of the EU, and whilst I wouldn't necessarily make a purely 'selfish' decision, unless the 'Out' campaign can provide pretty incontrovertible evidence to show that exit would benefit the majority of the UK, I will remain in the In camp.

krapnotpu

Grey, agreed. ;ok

ThamesIronWorks

So 36 of the FTSE 100 bosses sign an open letter declaring we are better in than out.

Now you might say they are only speculating and what on earth do they know. Personally I'll take business leaders' informed and expert view of what is likely to happen to businesses and the economy over any politician or newspaper baron.

You might also say what about the other 64. Well there might be any number of reasons they are not publically nailing their colours to the fence. Or you could say where is the letter signed by 36 of them saying we are better out than in?

Looks to me that if you wonder what business thinks about the debate from an economic standpoint that letter is your answer.

eskimoking

MrsGrey said:

;ok

Good point, I read something similar to that the other day. Putin is urging Brexit. ;hmm

Of course he would. America have our ear and we have a big influence, whilst in the EU, over all the countries that are standing in his way. Us leaving the EU weakens the America-European connection imo.

I've seen some good arguments for out, but all of it is ifs and maybes. What is certain for me, is our negotiating position in the European market will be drastically hindered if we leave. The pound is already weakening since the uncertainty we don't need more expensive prices for the majority of our trade too.

I'm 100% in and nothing would change my view.

iron_pants

My business relies heavily on trade with Europe. As my industry is quite parochial we will be affected if we leave as there will be a preference for our European competitors. Business is a tough game and there is always someone fighting for your lunch. An out vote makes us (a British company with many British employees) less competitive.

It is a real possibility the we will be losing British jobs as potential cuts are likely to exceed the number of EU nationals in our company. This is not scaremongering but a reality that faces my company.

ThamesIronWorks

On another note I saw an interesting factoid the other day that suggested there was a disproportionate amount of time devoted to the debate about social welfare payments to EU migrants. That the amounts involved represented an equivalent of 30 minutes of annual spend if annual government spend was expressed as minutes per year. (525,600 minutes per year in case you were wondering - or 527,040 this leap year)

Now everyone is entitled to their view on the issue from a philosophical perspective but it cannot be claimed to be in the least significant from a monetary perspective.

As a footnote I hope this potentially emotional element of the debate distinguishes between EU migrants and those from the rest of the world, and also distinguishes between migrants and so called asylum seekers/refugees (which by definition generally come from outside the EU) and also distinguishes between migrants and 'illegal' immigrants (which again by definition generally come from outside the UK). When you do this, then compare the amount of EU migrants with the amount of EU migrants who cost our economy rather than contribute to it, the whole thing becomes, in my mind, a non issue as far as this referendum is concerned.

OutcastLondoner

Thames, I saw that somewhere as well and I think it shows that both the deal and the debate in general has mostly driven by over exaggerated media 'scandals' rather than real concerns.

baracks_a_hammer

grey_til_I_dye said:

krapnotpu

That's kind of where I am.

Personally, we benefit from being part of the EU, and whilst I wouldn't necessarily make a purely 'selfish' decision, unless the 'Out' campaign can provide pretty incontrovertible evidence to show that exit would benefit the majority of the UK, I will remain in the In camp.

That's a fair point of view ;ok

However equally, it should be up to the "in" campaign to prove beyond doubt, that whatever Dave has cobbled together will right the many wrongs which have made the EU the shambles that it is (IMO).

I'm still waiting for that and am happy to wait until 23rd June till I decide where to place that tick

I believe he has not at all properly thought through what real effect his changes will make, if they can even be rebutted and whether in practice whether the shambles will stop being a shambles - so he has a bit of a cheek therefore to insinuate that the "outs" haven't thought through the potential fall out of an exit.

baracks_a_hammer

An example of the shambles being the insane amount of paperwork bureaucracy and compliance required to trade with an EU company, where las there is none at all to trade with a Chinese company

baracks_a_hammer

And another thing, if I vote in, will the edit function on whu606 start working properly on my iPhone??

;hmm

;lol

Moojor

baracks_a_hammer said:

An example of the shambles being the insane amount of paperwork bureaucracy and compliance required to trade with an EU company, where las there is none at all to trade with a Chinese company

Serious question, why do you think that the amount of bureaucracy and compliance would reduce because we are no longer in the EU.

We would still be dealing with the EU, we just wouldn't be in the EU.

baracks_a_hammer

Mooj

Have you ever completed intrastat returns, Eu sales lists, reverse charging on vat returns, etc etc?

None of these are required for trading with a Chinese or Swiss company, etc etc

Moojor

baracks_a_hammer said:

Mooj

Have you ever completed intrastat returns, Eu sales lists, reverse charging on vat returns, etc etc?

None of these are required for trading with a Chinese or Swiss company, etc etc

No I haven't which is why I asked. So those are required purely because we are in the EU.

Such as the OJEU is (Offical Journal of the European Union) which, if we left the EU, we would no longer comply with and therefore be able to tender out public spending jobs just to companies in the UK.

Actually, thinking about it, that could be a boost to British jobs, public spending could be fullfilled by British companies instead of having to open up tenders across the EU.

baracks_a_hammer

ThamesIronWorks said:

Personally I'll take business leaders' informed and expert view of what is likely to happen to businesses and the economy over any politician or newspaper baron.

.

Rightly we should take anything a newspaper or politician says with a huge pinch of salt. But conversely I'm of the belief that the ftse bosses are a little cosy club unto themselves and will often scratch each other's backs and the backs of senior politicians.

Not dissimilar to the love in between George Osborne and the boss of Google uk