Will we stay up?

imagelost

Last throw of dice

Lukerz

After an amazing upsurge in form, Watford seem to have hit the buffers of late (no wins in last 5 PL games, 3 defeats). That's good news for us as they really did look like building up some real momentum & firing up towards mid table. Norwich look short of getting out of it, leaving one of us, Villa or Bournemouth. Brighton I think will be alright having never really played poorly enough consistently this season to think they will not get the required points needed. My worry with Bournemouth is they always have a period every season where they look certainties to drop, but always pull a few results out the bag to do enough to survive. Realistically you'd probably say Newcastle & above have enough points between them & us (minimum of 8 with GD included) to be alright.

Hamstew

I actually think Newcastle could get sucked back into it.

Yeoldhammer

All well and good pointing out those we need to catch but we have to actually win games to make a difference. Yet to be convinced we can do that.

OldCastleSwift

Good point, Yeold. The other teams are doing their bit by dropping points, but it needs us to step up to be of any value.

ASLEFshrugged

Cuz1 said:

Me personally think Moyes is past it

He's 56, the same age as Pearson, slightly older than Klopp, Hasenhuttl and Wilder (52) but younger than Mourinho (57), Bruce (59), Ancelotti (60) or Hodgson (72!!!),

They say you know you're getting old when coppers start looking young but now I'm older than 17 Premier League managers.

Where's me slippers?

OutcastLondoner

Hodgson's almost old enough to run for president!

Kuchinghammer

But is he dumb enough??

SuzanneClaret

No and I'd guess not sleazy enough either.

Hammerex

Up to now I have said all along that we are going down, but after last nights
performance, I really thought the tide had turned, as we were playing much
better, as well as playing away from home against the best team in the league.
If they keep on playing like that for the rest of the season, I think we have a
decent chance of staying up. If they play as good as they were last night, then
surely they should beat Southampton at home on Saturday, but knowing the
Hammers, I wouldn't bet on it.

thornburyiron

If ever there was a game for Fab to have a mare then last night was it. As brilliant as it would have been to be the first and possibly only team to beat them we always expected to lose. It would be horrendous if he made those howlers against the sides around us. Hopefully he’s got that out of his system and he’s not on a Roberto roll.

buffybegood

So, crazy close now, will still be tough for Norwich to get out of it as they're 6 points behind and much worse goal difference, but only 3 points separate the next 5. You could argue that we have one of the easier run ins, in that we've got 3 games against the other 5 in the bottom 6, whereas Bournemouth have none, and Brighton and Villa only have 1 each against their relegation rivals.

Obviously a huge result for us today against Southampton, but it barely has us out of the drop zone, on goal difference. Newcastle and Arsenal could have a huge impact on the relegation battle, as they each play of the bottom 6 in the run in.

BubblesNeverDies

Buffy
"You could argue that we have one of the easier run ins, in that we've got 3 games against the other 5 in the bottom 6"

You could also argue that they will be the hardest fought games and there's never a guarantee of winning, I think Watford proved that.

buffybegood

Should read:

buffybegood said:

Newcastle and Arsenal could have a huge impact on the relegation battle, as they each play 5 of the bottom 6 in the run in.

Lukerz

And depending how that goes, Newcastle could very well be a team in trouble.

buffybegood

Lukerz said:

And depending how that goes, Newcastle could very well be a team in trouble.

Possibly, but I think, with the 5 point gap to the drop zone and the fixtures they've got, that they're unlikely to get dragged into things. For sure, the bottom teams will be targeting Newcastle as a possible source of points, but I'd rather be playing 5 of the bottom 6 rather than 5 of the top 6.

thornburyiron

I’d rather be playing 5 of the middle 6

Lukerz

With games against Burnley, Newcastle, Arsenal, they are the key games. 7 points there would basically see us safe & they are the games with sides who currently have little to play for.

That’s why the next three games are vital. Arsenal, Wolves, Spurs. These are not dogfight games. Relying on the games v Watford, Villa, Norwich at the business end of the season is a dangerous plan. I’d probs take a draw from each of them at the moment.

Lukerz

Brighton’s next few:

Wolves (a)
Arsenal (h)
Leicester (a)
Man Utd (h)
Norwich (a)
Liverpool (h)
City (h)

Potentially leaving the pressure on for them to collect a substantial amount of points in their final 3...

Southampton (a)
Newcastle (h)
Burnley (a)

Would be slightly amusing after getting rid of Hughton & then giving Potter a new 6 year deal, 3 months into his reign, for them to go down.

Lukerz

Newcastle have registered 0 goals, in 5 of their late 6 games in all competitions. Bit of a worry if you’re a magpie.

Yeoldhammer

One game hasn't convinced me too much that we will beat the drop. We put in a good shift but like when we beat Bournemouth, it can go to pot very fast. The games against Norwich / Watford / Villa on the last day are going to be disgusting.

Couple with the fact a lot of teams around us have Europa League and Champions league teams to play further on down the line when Liverpool will have the league wrapped up meaning City / Liverpool will have second string teams out in the league.

Unfortunately we hit these teams at the wrong time, we even have Arsenal who just got tonked out of Europe. We should be targetting Wolves though for maximum points i think they have a Europa League game inbetween playing us. If Man United go deep enough could be in the same boat.

IronHerb

I think Arsenal will be easier than Wolves.

Lukerz

Bowen, Antonio, Haller against Luiz & Mustafi?

I mean if we can’t cause them massive problems then we do have a problem.

Fortuneseeker

IronHerb said:

I think Arsenal will be easier than Wolves.

I reckon Wolves have adjusted to playing Thursday/Sunday and are pushing for the top 4. Arsenal should now have their sights on the FA Cup. Chelsea concern me as they may only have the league to concentrate on after the next week or so. (Liverpool & Bayern). I understand the Tottenham game will be moved if they beat Norwich this week so that may be rescheduled to be played in the middle of the games v the teams around us. Someone may drop into the mix if they go on a bad run (Newcastle?) so lets try and enjoy the ride to the end of the season it's going to be interesting with hopefully the right outcome. :pray:

Hammerex

After yesterday's well deserved victory, I think the main difference was that
Antonio was working very well with Haller. He ran his socks off all over the
park. Thought it was his best performance I have seen.
Just hope he can stay injury free.

Yeoldhammer

Realistically to make it, in our last 10 games

We need:
-3 wins out of 10
-2 draws out of 10
-no more than 5 losses

Arsenal (A) <--- Can't see us getting anything from this, they need a hard push for Europe now that they are out.
Wolves (H) <--- maybe a draw depending how they take on the Europa League with both legs against Olympiakos in between playng us. (hopefully Olympiakos put a goal on Wolves before they go into the second leg at home versus them)
Spurs (A) <--- could do something here if they somehow get past Leipzig they will have another Europa game sandwiched and without Kane and Son feels like a game we can go at them with.
Chelsea (H) <--- Probably dead and buried in Europe, can't see anything from this will be in the same boat as Arsenal.
Newcastle (A) <--- Should be targetting for some points. Newcastle might be safe and on their holidays by the time this game comes around.
Burnley (H) <--- Same as above, can't see them by this point being in contention for Europe.
Norwich (A) <--- Could be dead and buried by then ? might not could go either way.
Watford (H) <--- who knows both teams could turn up or get thumped.
Man U (A) <--- Man U could go deep in Europa and if Chelsea / whoever else strap their boots on might put Man U well out of contention for Europe, again could do something here.
Villa (H) <--- Same as Watford. Could be the defining game.


anywhere from 8 points to 18 points is probably realistic. Slap bang in the middle 13 points gets us to 40. But considering the season more likely to be in the 8 - 13 point bracket to put us on 35 - 40 points. Probably going down to the last day potentially.

IronHerb

We need:
-3 wins out of 10
-2 draws out of 10
-no more than 5 losses

So 4 wins and 0 draws is no good then? :hmm:

I think Wolves and Man U are the toughest of our remaining games and we will do well to get anything from them. Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea are flakey so there are opportunities there.

This leaves Newcastle, Burnley, Norwich, Watford and Villa which are all winnable. Of course this will require us to maintain the form shown in our last two games and even improve on it. A win or two works wonders.

I'm still confident we will be fine but time will tell.

COYI

IronHerb

Our next 4 games -
Arsenal (A)
Wolves (H)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)

Brighton next 4 -
Wolves (A)
Arsenal (H)
Leicester (A)
Man Utd (H)

Villas next 4 -
Leicester (A)
Chelsea (H)
Newcastle (A)
Wolves (H)

followed by

Liverpool (A)
Man Utd (H)
Palace (H)
Everton (A)
Arsenal (H)

Bournemouth next 4 -
Liverpool (A)
Palace (H)
Wolves (A)
Newcastle (H)

followed by

Man Utd (A)
Spurs (H)
Leicester (H)
Man City (A)

Norwich next 4 -
Sheff Utd (A)
Southampton (H)
Everton (H)
Arsenal (A)

Watford next 4 -
Palace (A)
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Southampton (H)

Everyone goes on about our run of tough games but Bournemouth and Villa are about to enter a run of tough games that we are already half way through.

35 points could conceivably suffice.

Slacker

Lukerz said:

Newcastle have registered 0 goals, in 5 of their late 6 games in all competitions. Bit of a worry if you’re a magpie.

Not if they’ve got West Ham coming up. :whistle:

buffybegood

I did a forecast of results for the bottom 6 for the remainder of the season, and we actually finish top of the 6 if my predictions are correct. If only