The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

claretandbluesky

I think the debate will need in time to move to not only what are the consequences of leaving the EU but what are the consequences of creating the context for another vote? I feel there would be some burning and a looting but that could hopefully be nipped in the bud after a few days. Then genuine concessions need be made by the govt to address the inequality that prompted the leave vote in many, who now the reality is clarifying may be only to happy to vote remain.

I think TM needs stop saying brexit means brexit and actually lay out the strategy and potential leverage we have and what we may find ourselves up against and potential consequences.

I have never bought this nonsense of her claiming she does not want to publicise her negotiating strategy as we all know what it is already and so do the EU, and we know theirs. She wants to retain free market access yet control immigration, they however want to ensure no country is allowed to break the four freedoms. What is not being recognised is that our only leverage is it will hurt your exports to the UK, which is like saying if you play hardball you will end up cutting off your nose to spite your face, we however will be cutting of both our legs and an arm. We receive control of immigration, which ironically we may not need as we will be pretty unappealing as a destination and the possibility of entering into negotiations of further free trade deals with non EU nations, which will take years and also be conducted from a massive position of weakness on our part. The EU sure up themselves by having had us voluntarily agree to be the shining example of what happens to a nation who leaves. They lose some income on their exports but gain a little when pulling inwards and companies also withdraw from collaboration with UK business and seek new partners from within the group.

I mean how desperate did we get today when someone said if you do that we may reduce our corporation tax to 10%, so from a very robust, high ranking economy we became a beggar. If anyone suggested reducing corporation tax by even 2p it would be massive news and have budgetary effect, yet now the unthinkable becomes thinkable because we are in such a perilous position.

MrsGrey

claretandbluesky said:

... which is like saying if you play hardball you will end up cutting off your nose to spite your face, we however will be cutting of both our legs and an arm.

... because our nose has already gone ;ok

Expat_Hammer

Mrs G, who nose

;yercoat

simonc

I may be missing something quite obvious (and i am sure someone will point it out) but from what i see ( https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-leaving-eu-trade/ ) the EU tariffs will range between 3% & 10%. So whats the problem? Why do we need free trade with strings? other than paperwork the devaluation of the pound has already accounted for far more than that.

simonc

SuzanneClaret said:

Trump is trying to perform a political reset, will we see "Amexit"?

MrsGrey

Simon, you are assuming that the £ isn't going to recover then?

TheMadcapLaughs

Simple question. Who would join a club, or a street gang, or a legitimate business organisation, you know, like the Mafia, if said club/gang/organisation made it virtually impossible (when in) to leave or even contemplate the possibility of leaving? I thought we warned our children about the dangers of gang membership. The gang leaders, with the clown Juncker at its helm, with all the talk of hard brexit, the veiled threats and the warning of "consequences" and being "held up as an example" to warn other "dissenters" is plain bonkers. Jesus, its like a draft script for The Godfather IV. It feels to me that we are being dictated to, and no-one (deviant politicians aside) likes being bullied, dominated and dictated to. NO-ONE knows whether leaving the EU, in the long run, will be beneficial to the UK, but at the minute it seems increasingly likely (to me) that we don`t have a choice. There is only one logical conclusion to the continued existence of the EU and that is a United States of Europe and EVERYONE from Gladys in Cleethorpes to Margaux in Wallonia will have to fall in line. The EU and Brussels, far from delivering the very freedoms it was constituted on, is morphing into some far reaching all encompassing Orwellian Superstate, and woe betide anyone who dares challenge it. Must dash as I want to catch this mornings 9 o` clock episode of Project Fear, The Aftermath.

MrsGrey

I think that's bit of an exaggeration.

Nobody is making it 'virtually impossible' to leave or contemplate leaving.

Events have proved that it is n fact very simple to contemplate leaving and, in fact, to decide to do so.

All they are saying is, if you don't want to be a member of our club then you don't automatically get the benefits of membership.

Eminently reasonable, imo, and very fair.

Not Orwellian at all, in my eyes.

Many 'clubs' offer advantageous terms to members.

Whether that be reduced printing on replica kit, first dibs on booking tickets or one free coffee for every 10 you buy.

On which subject, how many ;coffee have you had this morning, madcap? ;biggrin

TheMadcapLaughs

Mrs G, only one, I would normally have two or three by now, but since Brexit, what with the price of coffee and sugar........................

I think that the process of leaving will be made as hard for us as possible with a continual, almost subliminal, drone of ........ "consequences".......

And for the first time since the vote I have my doubts, not of the validity of the vote, or whether it is the right thing to do, but of the actual political bravery and will needed to carry through Brexit to its full conclusion.

I don`t think there are many benefits or advantageous terms from a UK perspective to being members of the EU, it`s not the fear of losing the "benefits" we glean from being non members, but the price they will charge us for having the temerity to leave.

I just don`t think that the further entrenchment of power to a single centralised point is right or healthy for true democracy. Power needs to be devolved down.

If I was to make a Crystal Maze analogy it would be that the UK entered the game room full of hope and confidence with its fellow team players cheering and shouting encouragement from the sidelines, only to be told after the door had shut, "remember, this is an automatic lock in"...............................

IronHerb

But it's to a lock in. We can leave but should not expect it to be easy, hence the Brexiters glossing over that bit.

Australia announced yesterday that they will not enter trade agreement negotiations until we are out and the average timescale for trade agreements is 5 years.

billybondsbeard

I like lock ins - just sayin'.......... ;stout ;champagne ;cider ;sbrew ; ;porkpie

TheMadcapLaughs

;ok ;beer

Dodger58

IronHerb said:

But it's to a lock in. We can leave but should not expect it to be easy, hence the Brexiters glossing over that bit.

Australia announced yesterday that they will not enter trade agreement negotiations until we are out and the average timescale for trade agreements is 5 years.

Iron, this is not because of Australia's unwillingness to come to a deal, but timeline due to the restriction on when the UK can start to negotiate UK Trade deals. One of the rules of being part of the EU is that we have to negotiate with the EU before we can negotiate deals with anyone else. There is a time limit (2 years after Article 50 is invoked) beyond which we can start talking to others. So what Australia actually said was "as soon as you are able to negotiate a deal we are ready and willing to talk to you" - but that's severely off BBC message ...

simonc

Dodge

The press appear to have there own agenda right now, it is even more apparent in the US.
I used to think the BBC was impartial, not any more

IronHerb

Dodger58 said:

IronHerb said:

But it's to a lock in. We can leave but should not expect it to be easy, hence the Brexiters glossing over that bit.

Australia announced yesterday that they will not enter trade agreement negotiations until we are out and the average timescale for trade agreements is 5 years.

Iron, this is not because of Australia's unwillingness to come to a deal, but timeline due to the restriction on when the UK can start to negotiate UK Trade deals. One of the rules of being part of the EU is that we have to negotiate with the EU before we can negotiate deals with anyone else. There is a time limit (2 years after Article 50 is invoked) beyond which we can start talking to others. So what Australia actually said was "as soon as you are able to negotiate a deal we are ready and willing to talk to you" - but that's severely off BBC message ...

Yep. I realise that Dodger but there has been lots written and spoken about getting early starts on trade talks.
The other thing is that if it takes, on average, 5 years to agree trade agreements with willing partners then how are we going to negotiate Brexit, with unwilling partners, in 2 years? ;hmm

NEoldiron

Why don't we just accept (in the case of Brexiteers - admit) that Brexit is the worst economic disaster that a country could possibly inflict upon itself, and for what.

If the economy ever recovers, it will be so far into the future that the majority of those who voted for Brexit will be dead.

Expat_Hammer

NEoldiron said:

Why don't we just accept (in the case of Brexiteers - admit) that Brexit is the worst economic disaster that a country could possibly inflict upon itself, and for what.

If the economy ever recovers, it will be so far into the future that the majority of those who voted for Brexit will be dead.

And this is a fully accurate statement, backed up by the following irrefutable facts ...

TheMadcapLaughs

NEoldiron said:

Why don't we just accept (in the case of Brexiteers - admit) that Brexit is the worst economic disaster that a country could possibly inflict upon itself, and for what.

If the economy ever recovers, it will be so far into the future that the majority of those who voted for Brexit will be dead.

It depends what you mean by "economic disaster". Because if you really think about it, continuous, unbridled, economic growth is not sustainable, and if you look at it from an ecological perspective most definitely not desirable. I assume you mean by "economic disaster" a sustained, continual drop in GDP, I.E. what is generally known as a recession. And I know I bang on about this, but if you looked at things from a different perspective, and not the one rammed down our throats, you may come to the conclusion that if we stepped back a bit, and looked at producing things we actually NEED rather than what we are told we actually "want" then "economic disasters" as measured purely along strict empirical lines are a nonsense. We have to step back from this (no other word) greed. And to be honest, if we continue to blindly pursue this never ending Nirvana of "growth", this mad dash for more and more, not only will Brexiters be dead by the time of the "recovery" but the planet will also be heaving its last breath. The following article I found just by typing in economic growth, if you do nothing else, read the very last paragraph.

http://www.thisisyoke.com/blog/is-economic-growth-sustainable/

Dodger58

NEoldiron said:

Why don't we just accept (in the case of Brexiteers - admit) that Brexit is the worst economic disaster that a country could possibly inflict upon itself, and for what.

If the economy ever recovers, it will be so far into the future that the majority of those who voted for Brexit will be dead.

And we haven't left yet. So all this is happening whilst still part of the club.

Dodger58

IronHerb said:

Yep. I realise that Dodger but there has been lots written and spoken about getting early starts on trade talks.
The other thing is that if it takes, on average, 5 years to agree trade agreements with willing partners then how are we going to negotiate Brexit, with unwilling partners, in 2 years? ;hmm

Is the 5 year average for EU deals or generic World trade deals?
Is it for "willing parties"?
Is it just a random number generated by the unbiased BBC?
Whilst I am sure there are some 'behind closed doors' discussions, we cannot start actual negotiations yet.

Things do take time. But we do have a current trade deal with many countries (via the EU) so technically we could agree their continuance as is whilst negotiating specific UK deals over a longer period of time. Whether we intend to try that or not I have no idea. So why speculate, we will find out in due course.

The only real issue will be in our agreement with the EU. Clearly they will be regarded as a 'hostile witness' unless they 'wake up' and realise they too can benefit from a sensible trade deal with the UK.

However that goes against the ideals of the EU 'Elite'. So I have no doubt (and no fear) that they will make life difficult.

It will be interesting to see how EU countries that want to trade openly with the UK react to the idealists attempts to restrict us.

TheMadcapLaughs

NEoldiron said:

Why don't we just accept (in the case of Brexiteers - admit) that Brexit is the worst economic disaster that a country could possibly inflict upon itself, and for what.

If the economy ever recovers, it will be so far into the future that the majority of those who voted for Brexit will be dead.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live


Now you have me worried. Should I be booking an appointment at the doctors this evening??

MrsGrey

TheMadcapLaughs said:

The following article I found just by typing in economic growth, if you do nothing else, read the very last paragraph.

http://www.thisisyoke.com/blog/is-economic-growth-sustainable/

;hmm Are you referring to the final quotation?

Is he an 'expert'?

Apparently I'm not supposed to trust them anymore. Which makes sense - after all, why would we want to pay any attention to people who have knowledge, information and expertise?

(This is a generic dig, not one at you Madcap ;ok ).

Dodger58

Madcap surely you can see that the only reason Nissan have committed to the UK is the £320m a week we have committed to pay them in tax credits. A deal Teresa May has guaranteed to anyone continuing their business in the U.K. Against the BBC's advice.

Dodger58

Can you make an appointment for me too

TheMadcapLaughs

Not sure if he`s an expert or not Mrs G as I`ve never heard of him before. But the sentiment expressed in that paragraph sums up perfectly what I have been trying to say for the past few weeks. A chap who spoke about doing things locally, simplifying our existence and putting environmental and ecological issues at the forefront of socio- economic planning was an economist/philosopher called Murray Bookchin, and long before "the environment" became hip. I must admit his books are a bit too "wordy" for me (don`t understand half of what he says) but simply put: the rush for more and more is killing both us and the planet. ;ok

NEoldiron

Madcap you posted this link

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-brexit-impact-economy-business-live

The point is the pre-referendum forecast was 0.7%.
But you and many others are forgetting that we're still in the EU, so who knows what it will be like when Brexit is actually effected.

As far as the environmental references you posted, I wholeheartedly agree with you, I just think that we can better influence them from within the EU.
As a point of interest, I grow most of my own vegetables and burn wood from trees in my garden and wood pellets for heating, not got round to the solar panels yet!
;biggrin

TheMadcapLaughs

NE ;ok

I have always said, the majority of us want the same things, the majority of us have fairly basic, simple demands from life. My problem is I have developed a DEEP mistrust of politicians, in fact the one thing we all seem to agree on is that politicians lie. I personally think that the World would be a lot better place with ultimately NO politicians, but in the meantime the fewer the better. And it`s not just the politicians but the endless stream of administrators and bureaucrats, I genuinely do not know how they fill their days. In fact I do, they over complicate simple things, they seek to mystify the straight forward and mundane, which is why negotiations take years, which is why we have administrators and bureaucrats, the perfect vicious circle.

"and who knows what it will be like when Brexit is actually effected"

Absolutely, and as a great man once said:

The person who thinks with their own brain is to be preferred to the one that blindly approves everything. Better an error consciously committed and in good faith, than a good action performed in a servile manner.

IronHerb

But was he an expert? ;biggrin

TheMadcapLaughs

;lol ;clap

NEoldiron

No Herb, he was an Italian ;biggrin