The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

MrsGrey

I see Boris has glibly said it will all be OK eventually, but there may be a bit of 'sturm und drang' in the meantime.

Cheers, Bozzer.

You may be able to grin and shrug, but for a lot of people, what you dismiss as a temporary upheaval equates to 4 or more years of significant and real financial hardship.

Still, you can ride out the storm on the buffer of your personal financial wealth, ey.

It's probably the plebs' fault anyway, for not having enough investments to tide them over 'till things pick up again. After all, 'tis only 'chicken feed'.

MrsGrey

AdMeus_CaputFilius said:

As I said a while ago, there are some people out there making a lot of money out of this (or are planning to), who along with interested parties who want uncertainty, are deliberately adding to the problems - for instance The Scottish FM and SNP (for their own personal ambitions, not for the Scottish People IMO) along with certain politicians in Europe and the EU elite (as they want the UK punished for daring to actually leave their cosy socialist club) are the only one's really pushing the hard brexit issue, the UK Gov't certainly aren't.

.

What 'cosy socialist club' is that?

I wouldn't characterise the EU as a 'socialist club'. ;hmm

I suppose it depends on one's definition of socialist, but it doesn't match any definition that I recognise.

MrsGrey

AdMeus_CaputFilius said:

As I said a while ago, there are some people out there making a lot of money out of this (or are planning to), who along with interested parties who want uncertainty, are deliberately adding to the problems - for instance The Scottish FM and SNP (for their own personal ambitions, not for the Scottish People IMO) along with certain politicians in Europe and the EU elite (as they want the UK punished for daring to actually leave their cosy socialist club) are the only one's really pushing the hard brexit issue, the UK Gov't certainly aren't.
.

The referendum was predicated on 'hard Brexit', surely.

It was clear to everyone that there were no guarantees that OUT meant we would be able to pick and choose which of, and what bits of, the '4 freedoms' we wanted.

And that's what the electorate chose.

So to say that the nasty EU is being mean and trying to punish us is, imo. disingenuous.

OUT voters got what they voted for. OUT. Out of all the 4 aspects that IN requires/allows.

So, get negotiating, and deliver this brave new 'out' world that we were told would be achieved. Moaning about how the horrid Europeans are being mean and not sharing their toys is ridiculous. We voted to not share our toys. Its no good now blaming them for not letting us borrow their Tonka Truck for free unless we also willing to take turns tidying up the lego.


Or something.

;puzzled

Dodger58

It may make more sense to see the outcome of the negotiations all is speculation at present - and will be for some time. There is no way any negotiator should be showing their hand at present. Europe will continue to 'talk tough' and as Admeus said, there are a lot of UK reporters trying to prove themselves right ...

NEoldiron

It should also be remembered that this is only pre-Brexit. The UK is still in the EU so that's why things are not so bad, I mean 16-20% loss in the value of Sterling is nothing is it?
For one thing it's good for our exporters, right? The only problem with that is we've been through all this before. Sterling goes down - good for exporters, period of calm, Sterling goes down again - good for exporters, etc. etc.
This would be great if our balance of payments was always in the black, except it never is. It's not rocket science is it? If we import far more than we export we're always going to be on the losing side.

Here's a link to the latest report from the Office for National Statistics:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/aug2016

Makes for worrying reading. But hey, we're taking back control of our soon-to-be (as in a decade or so) 3rd world country. ;ok

MrsGrey

Comments moved out of the Payet thread, and tidied up a bit. ;ok

Yeoldhammer

Intrigued to see how the negotiations go, but freedom of movement for both sides is the red flag. Can't see the EU or the UK budging. Will come down to whether Theresa May thinks she can take the body blow of trading freedom of movement for more favourable single market access similar to the Lib Dems and tuition fees and look how that went. But in 2 years time the EU might be in a worse position and depends how much they value the UK economy input, I imagine there could be some wiggle room around freedom of movement but my guess it wouldn't be enough to satisfy many Brexit voters but enough for May to cave in.
Still think we will come out slightly worse as I can see a high price (financially) that would need to be traded off to give smaller countries an idea at the price of trying to break away from the EU.

TheMadcapLaughs

NEoldiron said:

It should also be remembered that this is only pre-Brexit. The UK is still in the EU so that's why things are not so bad, I mean 16-20% loss in the value of Sterling is nothing is it?
For one thing it's good for our exporters, right? The only problem with that is we've been through all this before. Sterling goes down - good for exporters, period of calm, Sterling goes down again - good for exporters, etc. etc.
This would be great if our balance of payments was always in the black, except it never is. It's not rocket science is it? If we import far more than we export we're always going to be on the losing side.

Here's a link to the latest report from the Office for National Statistics:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/aug2016

Makes for worrying reading. But hey, we're taking back control of our soon-to-be (as in a decade or so) 3rd world country. ;ok

What this highlights to me is we need to start making things again. Thatcher was so keen to open up all and everything to the free market and "competion" that whole industries, and consequently areas, were decimated. However, the "competition" were not playing with a straight bat. State funded, subsidised, and manned by adults (and children) working all hours in vile conditions for a pittance. Still, as long as our jeans and TV`s are cheap and we can change our mobile every six months. Unfortunately that`s what the free market and capitalism brings, it will always seek out the weak and the desperate to exploit in order to maximise profits. Surely rather than bleating about "always being on the losing side" as if it`s a foregone conclusion and written in stone for all eternity, why not address the real issue and try and close the balance of payments deficit by actually making things again, else surely we will always be open to the vagaries of the market. I`m sick to death of people pointing at "the markets" (I.E. stocks and currency) as the only indicators of what effects real people in real situations. The markets are man made institutions designed to make very rich people even richer, unfortunately when one of these very rich people is bored, or decides to cash in his chips, the consequences are felt by each and every one of us, that is just plain wrong, but market aberrations will occur whether we are in or out. If the huge, wasteful monolith known as The EU is the answer to all our problems then why are half it`s member states on the verge of bankruptcy, half the population unemployed and a number of other member states looking to get out. The fundamental ideals of The EU, I.E. freedom of movement, freedom to trade, equality, tolerance etc etc are fine and just goals. What we don`t need is the increasingly centralised, bloated, bureaucratic, cronyistic, corrupt nonsense that is deemed necessary to make the whole thing work. I`ve asked this before, and I don`t think anyone genuinely knows, but what in Hells teeth do these people do all day. I`m sorry, but yes we do have problems, we will have problems, but The EU is definitely not the answer.

NEoldiron

Madcap I'll take issue with you over:
"Surely rather than bleating about "always being on the losing side" as if it`s a foregone conclusion and written in stone for all eternity, why not address the real issue and try and close the balance of payments deficit by actually making things again."

Who's bleating, I said "If we import far more than we export we're always going to be on the losing side." I think you would admit that is a logical statement.

I would love to start making things, I travelled the world for about 25 years installing machinery made in Enfield and nothing made me prouder than to say " Yep, Made in England".

TheMadcapLaughs

Its the fact that you have highlighted this in a way to brow beat Brexiters. It is not the fault of Brexiters that the country has a massive trade deficit and it is not the fault of Brexiters that currency markets operate at the behest of a few wealthy individuals. Deciding to leave the EU has highlighted and exacerbated problems that are already there. Nothing you say is factually wrong, it`s the spin you seem to put on it.

MrsGrey

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Deciding to leave the EU has highlighted and exacerbated problems that are already there.

So, remind me again why it's a good decision. ;hmm

claretandbluesky

The EU are in a very strong position as all they need do is insist that free trade comes with free movement, this means the conservatives have to concede on free movement and end up taking us out for nothing, we just lose veto's, opt outs, a voice and a barrow load of credibility, or allow ourselves control immigration and move to move to world trade terms in the interim of agreeing a long drawn out trade deal and allow every other nation to see what happens when they leave or listen to right wing politicians such as Marie Le Pen. Of course German car importers and others will also pay a price, but they get to see us sink, and much Euro business that can (imports aside ) will simply move between the club of which we no longer belong. The idea that because the Germans sell us cars they will bend over backwards to let us off the hook and jeopardise the whole Euro project is fanciful to say the least. We will be allowed to leave and retain what we have through soft brexit, or leave and lose a lot, they cannot and will not allow us to gain from this, it would be suicide.

Very sadly this has become so personal and you get the feeling that pragmatism, genuine national interest and strategy will come second to the right to claim victory, the nation is very divided as the remainers look upon the brexiters with disdain and the brexiters on the remainers as elitists', in a way Cameron achieved something class war never could throughout the 70's and 80's.

It is even personal in Europe also with people like Junker wanting us to drown, hence his likening the article 50 letter to a suicide note, the non personal and pragmatic voice seems to be Tusk who I think is far more useful to us than Junker. Sadly on our side we have Boris who really has no idea of the power of words until they land, demonstrated during the referendum and again with his calling for demo's outside the Russian embassy this week, something that most semi intelligent people know you don't do, you need occupy the high ground Boris as it's easier to defend. Sadly I think Boris has forgotten what any ground looks like now and sees only himself. When John Kerry laughed at him during their opening conference and said 'it's called diplomacy Boris' he made clear what many suspected, a part of the man is defective.

My overriding personal view of the matter has not changed since June which is that although the EU is a long way from perfect or even sensible, the UK was better served by remaining at this time and watching what happens from an insulated position, rather than expose ourselves to massive risk for little practical return. The result I feel was caused by accrediting years of Tory austerity to the EU, to the point that those with least would have supported anyone and anything if it for one moment gave them some power and allowed a strike back, even if that punch would make them even worse off.

I don't think we will leave or if we do only a 'soft' brexit, no one would do the other as strategically it makes no economic sense. Only the fear of brexiters feeling they had the right to burn down the house may cause the Gov't to press the button on the nation. And this returns me back to the class war parallel.

TheMadcapLaughs

MrsGrey said:

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Deciding to leave the EU has highlighted and exacerbated problems that are already there.

So, remind me again why it's a good decision. ;hmm

Because the problems exist as a result of the current system, the current system IMO is failing and The EU is an entrenched part of that system. It is the reaction to the vote to leave that has caused the problems, not the vote itself, but as always it is "normal" people who will pay and "normal" people who will get the blame. When we leave The EU (assuming there is an exit door in the building) the markets will settle and things will return to normal, hurrah. It`s the uncertainty that causes instability (read manipulation) in the "markets" and yes, normal people will pay, but in the long run, when The EU fails, and it will, we will be well clear. And I will ask again, just in case anyone knows, what do all these people do day after day after day. The mind boggles.

TheMadcapLaughs

Picking up what claret&bluesky says: I think we are exposed to greater risk remaining in The EU, when it all goes wrong those that are left will all be asked to pay. I think by being outside the confines of The EU gives us greater flexibilty in making choices and decisions that are best for us. And that isn`t said from a narrow insular perspective, but from looking outwards beyond the confines of being a EU member. The EU would be fine if it wasn`t for the people running it.

TheMadcapLaughs

MrsGrey said:

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Deciding to leave the EU has highlighted and exacerbated problems that are already there.

So, remind me again why it's a good decision. ;hmm

And yes that statement does appear oxymoronic. Or just plain...........

grey_til_I_dye

Madcap

It is the reaction to the vote to leave that has caused the problems, not the vote itself

Not sure that works.

The reaction to the vote was, imo, utterly predictable, and so should have been factored in when deciding which way to jump.

Not sure why it has to be seen in terms of blame.

I think the vote to Leave was a bad mistake, which the UK will pay for for many years to come, which will either leave the UK with a deal which broadly retains the status quo ante, in which case what was the point, and what was the benefit, or it won't, in which case it will have access to the European market at far less favourable terms than currently. I realise there are those who believe that the EU will have to do the deal on the UK's terms.

time will tell just who fell
And who’s been left behind
When you go your way and I go mine

as the Nobel winner once said.

Outside of Europe, trade deals seem to take up to 10 years to negotiate, so it could be a long and bumpy ride before any kind of benefit (assuming there ever is one) is realised.

I'm not going out of my way to poke people who voted Leave, but I'm not going to pretend that I don't think they were wrong.

thornburyiron

So far the EU has spent 10 years trying to agree a trade deal with the US at least. All 28 countries have to ratify it but can't or won't. Bankrupt countries such as Greece will do whatever they're told because in their case the EU means continual hand outs.

claretandbluesky

TheMadcapLaughs said:

Picking up what claret&bluesky says: I think we are exposed to greater risk remaining in The EU, when it all goes wrong those that are left will all be asked to pay. I think by being outside the confines of The EU gives us greater flexibilty in making choices and decisions that are best for us. And that isn`t said from a narrow insular perspective, but from looking outwards beyond the confines of being a EU member. The EU would be fine if it wasn`t for the people running it.

I don't see this being the case Madcap as I think the EU has two weak points, the first is practical and is the Euro, and we are not in the Euro and are not obliged to any bail outs etc which could bring detriment to the wealthier countries, the other weakness is non EU immigration and once again we had opt outs to this, we were not and could not have been forced to take any Syrian refugees or any other refugees against our wishes, and we would also not have been affected by any deal to give Turkey free movement within any deal made, as we are not part of the shengen area which that deal pertained to. Sadly in the run up to the referendum so many people believed leave stories that we would be overrun by Syrian refugees and Turkish people arriving, neither was ever possible.

MrsGrey

thornburyiron said:

So far the EU has spent 10 years trying to agree a trade deal with the US at least. All 28 countries have to ratify it but can't or won't. Bankrupt countries such as Greece will do whatever they're told because in their case the EU means continual hand outs.

;hmm

So are you suggesting this shows it will be easy for us, or difficult, for us to negotiate a trade deal with the EU once we are out?

claretandbluesky

The UK's issue and it was a very valid one, was EU immigration. We were very attractive to poorer EU residents due to our tax credit system and general benefits system. It is an issue and any remainer that says not is not reflecting balance in the argument in my view.

The massive point however is that the economy really is the big thing with regard any nation, it sets the standard of living to develop, and no one ever allowed immigration to dictate economic policy. EU immigration allowed our economy to grow very well and was a massive boon in the beginning, unfortunately it has become to great now and we have no control, which is the problem, it's not of the size that the economy should be sacrificed however.

This takes us back to my original post as we are making a request, please allow us to control immigration, and the answer is you cannot within the EU four freedoms and you cannot have first three without the fourth as otherwise everyone will want to pick and choose. So we must keep trade which we want and need and still have no control, or leave but agree to free movement, in which case we left for nothing, lost voice and veto. It does however stop prevent those that would burn down the house feeling entitled to as we would have indeed left the EU, it would still leave trade and jobs alive however in which case we would lick our wounds and recover in a couple of years. A dream from our point of view is massive benevolence from the EU where they invite a deal which really allows us to control immigration without leaving, this would lead to a genuine pre text for a new vote, which by that stage Remain would likely win if the immigration card were taken away.

The press would still be the wildcard as I think it's something like 4 to 1 in favour of leaving at present and they distort the argument as described above with regard Syria and Turkey. I have no doubt if the Mail, the Sun and express line was 'the EU is rubbish but we cant afford to leave' or ' lets stay in and shake this thing up from inside', then the vote would have been a no contest. The press have huge power, it is the reason why China and Putin control the press as it is the wildcard that shapes nations.

thornburyiron

I think it will be easier for us to negotiate new trade deals with the likes of the US etc. As for the EU Germany will be eager to trade with us as will France, Spain and Italy. Don't know about the others as I don't know what we buy or sell to most of them.

thornburyiron

Another thing with the EU is for about the 20th year in a row their accounts couldn't be signed off by the auditors due to missing billions of euros in the accounts.
Someone somewhere must know where the money is going.

MrsGrey

thornburyiron said:

I think it will be easier for us to negotiate new trade deals with the likes of the US etc. As for the EU Germany will be eager to trade with us as will France, Spain and Italy. Don't know about the others as I don't know what we buy or sell to most of them.

Those specific EU countries you name may be eager to trade, but the EU will negotiate as a block, with any 1 country able to veto a deal? The eagerness of a few may in the end not help, f it only takes 1 EU country to feel that their economic situation would be better if the UK was permanently locked out of the trade deal to put the kibosh on it? So perhaps looking rather iffy in the whole 'EU new trade deal' stakes?

MrsGrey

As far as US deals, etc - yes, with fewer interested parties to have to agree, it will be a smoother process overall. Less like herding cats.

But that's not to say that the US will give it any kind of priority, or that we'll be negotiating from a position of strength: as a buyer we are a small market compared to the EU. As a seller, we don't have as much stuff to sell as the EU.

"Thank you for dialling US Trade Deals Ltd. Our special relationship is important to us, but our economic/trade team are busy at the moment. You are being held in a queue. Please hold."

Colchester_Iron

Where is pardewalegend when you need some well thought out and reasoned debate?

;hmm ;hug

Ravel49

Lolololol

OutcastLondoner

Where's rav gone?

Colchester_Iron

;hmm


;diop ...not in here...

Ravel49

I'll go check blockbusters ;run

Colchester_Iron

;scooter