The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

MrsGrey

Maybe they'll never get around to it. ;wink

Vorselaarhammer

Mrs grey I do wonder where we will end up.

Some sort of EU light, maybe with another rebate thrown in.

I do hope they don't leave the door open for Forage to return to the debate.

McHammer

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37558485

Ukip leader going so soon.

claretandbluesky

The nearest analogy I could find to describe how Theresa May looks and comes across when I listen to her is like a woman who has been ordered to smash up her own house under the threat of either you do it or we will. She is now struggling to find a way to smash the house up to an acceptable standard of the people behind her who have won the right to smash up the house, without doing so much damage that it cant be re-built later once the power has been moved away from the people forcing it through. She is trying to appear enthusiastic to convince them she will do it properly as they suspect she will want to get away with only a little surface damage, and it's working but she knows soon she must begin to swing the sledge hammer.

Whilst in the rest of the street the other home owners can't believe we are about to smash our own house up as they know we will have to live in it afterwards.

Swissiron

I dont agree. I think she wants to smash up the house and pretended not to before. Also she is looking like Thatcher but without the policies that could keep her at the helm. She's on her own walking down a narrowing path and she knows it. Obviously she can't trust Boris or any of the others, she can only sack them. I think she knows that there will have to be a General Election within two years.

ASLEFshrugged

Swissiron said:

I think she knows that there will have to be a General Election within two years.

How exactly is that going to happen? Under the Fixed-terms Parliament Act 2011 the only way an early election can be called is if two thirds of MPs vote for it or if there are two majority votes of "no confidence" in the government.

There are 650 MPs, two thirds is 434, the Tories have 329 so that would mean getting another 105 MPs to vote for an early election. Even if all the Lib Dems, SNP, and others backed the motion they'd still need 16 Labour MPs to get it through parliament.

Any vote of "no confidence" would obviously need some Tories voting against their own leadership, at the moment they seem more than happy guaranteed to stay in power for another three and a half years

billybondsbeard

What gets my goat is the relatively easy ride they are getting from the right wing media.
The upcoming Brexit conversations look like a nightmare, and we seem to be clutching at straws - praising a likely upcoming deal with France to export Jam and Marmalade for instance( I saw yesterday). Hammond is writing his financial plans on the back of a fag packet, and is u turning on a lot of Osbornes policies. Boris making an idiot of himself in Turkey etc
Imagine if Labour was in power and flip flopping like this, they'd be taken to the cleaners ;angry

IronHerb

Unfortunately I just can't imagine Labour being in power. ;puzzled

billybondsbeard

Not at the minute IH I agree, but I reckon we'll be looking for alternatives to this lot within 18 months. Feels very much like the Major government, in that it will get overtaken by events in Europe, and try to appease the baying back benchers at the same time.

ASLEFshrugged

BBB - look who owns our press? The Sun and Times are owned by Murdoch, the Mail and Metro by Lord Rothermere, the Express and Star by Richard Desmond and the Telegraph by the Barclay Brothers.

All extremely wealthy individuals who have consistently backed the Tories although Desmond did donate to UKIP last year and Murdoch backed Labour when they were under Tony Blair (Mrs Murdoch too if the rumours are true)

The Guardian and Mirror don't have wealthy individuals as owners and surprise, surprise they tend to be slightly more critical of the Tories.

IronHerb

billybondsbeard said:

Not at the minute IH I agree, but I reckon we'll be looking for alternatives to this lot within 18 months. Feels very much like the Major government, in that it will get overtaken by events in Europe, and try to appease the baying back benchers at the same time.

But it won't be replaced by the Labour Party as it currently stands.

billybondsbeard

Not as it currently stands I agree, like I said, it will probably take Labour a year to really get organised. They've spent the last year sorting out the leadership, and the tories have had a relatively free ride. There is a school of thought that says let them stay where they are for now , and watch them take all the flak for Brexit, which I think is sensible. I'm afraid to say that I think that over time, Brexit will die the death of a thousand cuts, and will be Brexit in name only...

IronHerb

BBB. I wish I could be as optimistic as you regarding Labour but I am struggling to get there.

Yeoldhammer

Both Labour and Tories are splitting themselves apart. Neither can deliver what the country needs.

Vote Monster Raving Looney Party

grey_til_I_dye

Recession. Deal with it. ;cool

NEoldiron

Grey, recession, you say, only recession? How about Armageddon? ;nonono

MrsGrey

McHammer said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37558485

Ukip leader going so soon.

Farage back in charge so soon. ;doh

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37561065

chicagohammer

It may be a touch off topic, but the implemetation of the Fixed term act of 2011 managed to pass me by at the time.

Whose bright idea was that, I would have thought that anyone in power would rather keeep the flexibility provided by the prior system enabling you to call an early election if you feel that the winds are in your favor.

Cannot imagine why anyone would want to give that up

MrsGrey

Vorselaarhammer said:

Mrs grey I do wonder where we will end up.

Some sort of EU light, maybe with another rebate thrown in.

I do hope they don't leave the door open for Farage to return to the debate.

Too late.

MrsGrey

chicagohammer said:

It may be a touch off topic, but the implemetation of the Fixed term act of 2011 managed to pass me by at the time.

Whose bright idea was that,

Lib-Dems. ;ok

billybondsbeard

IronHerb said:

BBB. I wish I could be as optimistic as you regarding Labour but I am struggling to get there.

I have to be Herb, I'm a member - you have to be positive or those Momentum boys come round in the middle of the night and shout at you through the letterbox
;whistle

IronHerb

Bit like Militant back in the day.

billybondsbeard

To be fair, I dont really buy all of this 'infiltration ' stuff. I think that there is a marked difference between being a passionate Socialist, as most of Momentum are, compared to Militant, which was prepared to bring down the whole Labour party as it was then set up, to replace it with a Trotskyist leadership and manifesto. There has always been a roughly 10-15% of the Labour party that was radical in its approach
Never forget, that on the other side you have the UKIPpers , which to my mind represent the swivel eyed Little Englander side of the Right, and with the more sinister EDL etc on the extreme right. There are extremes on both sides, but it seems that UKIP are OK and now 'mainstream', and Momentum are dangerous, and would drink your babies blood given half the chance.

Its the media slant innit ??

ASLEFshrugged

IronHerb said:

Bit like Militant back in the day.

Not according to Peter Kinfoyle, Kinnock's "Witchfinder General" who was given the task of rooting out Militant

I don’t see any real comparison with Militant which was a tightly organised, highly motivated group with a particular ideological stance, quite clear and with a strategy which had been well thought out and which was inimical to the interests of the Labour party. I have never seen anything remotely to suggest that this Momentum is anything like that.

“I see it more as a reaction to Progress, representing the rightward elements of the Labour party, and Momentum taking up the cause of the left. It is as simple as that. I really do not see a comparison between the 1980s and today in that regard.”

https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2016/aug/05/peter-kilfoyle-liverpool-labour-momentum-jeremy-corbyn

Under Kinnock and Blair Labour moved away from its grassroots membership, became more controlled from the top and the MPs became more middle class in order to distance the party from union influence (but not union finances, they still wanted those). Having spent decades ignoring the members its little surprise that MPs aren't particularly happy with the idea of being held to account by the plebs.

Back in the 1950s you had the Gaitskellites and the Bevanites, today its the Progress and Momentum; nothing changes much.

claretandbluesky

The moment article 50 is triggered all power changes as the EU can allow the two year limit to be a tightening grip upon us that reduces our leverage with each passing month.

I personally think that one rule would change everything, this rule would be that no benefits above the rate of the persons home nation can be claimed until 5 years employment has been proven. This means you still have free movement to work but having reduced the appeal through not being able to take advantage of host nation benefits it would become unattractive to all but those who wanted and were able to secure work. One of the main issues is that out tax credits and benefits system is so attractive and better than a full time job in many EU nations.

Vorselaarhammer

MrsGrey said:

Vorselaarhammer said:

Mrs grey I do wonder where we will end up.

Some sort of EU light, maybe with another rebate thrown in.

I do hope they don't leave the door open for Farage to return to the debate.

Too late.

;doh

MrsGrey

Govt announces that they are going to scrap the 15yr limit on voting rights of Brits abroad. If they get the changes through Parliament (by 2020 is the aim), ex-pats will have lifetime rights to vote in elections and referenda.

Just in time for me. ;biggrin

Expat_Hammer

MrsGrey said:

ex-pats will have lifetime rights to vote in elections and referenda.

But I live here anyway ;puzzled

claretandbluesky

I don't think there will be any referendums planned for the next 100 years after the last one. Governments are elected to serve a certain purpose, one of which is to weigh and measure what is in the national interest, it's unreasonable to expect the populous at large to be able to do that, even though likely most of us imagine we could.

IronHerb

No. Governments are elected to serve the people.