The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50
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Comments
If we are to fund Y ourselves but no longer have to pay X then Z changes from a - to a + and we will then have these funds spare to also invest in our infrastructure/economy.
Add to that the fact that we will then also be in control of the funding of Y we will have the power to amend/change this should the markets change allowing us more freedom to adapt to an ever changing world.
To me this is a positive, and to a lot of remainers they said that fear of losing funding for sciences etc was a negative. Well this is now one negative that they can cross off their long list.
Are you not happy to hear this reported then as it's not money for the NHS?
The point is though that it further reduces the value of the leavers' promises made before the referendum.
But I am glad that I have found a story that we can both agree is a positive. I hope that there will be more, not to say I told you so but because it will mean that we as a country are doing something that people of both sides of the debate are happy about.
So, being a bit more patient and not believing all the hype (either positive or negative) that the headless chicken media have been spouting since the leave vote, and based on what I was hearing in the course of my work, I was prepared to wait for some hard evidence rather than speculation - here is some info based on actual facts since and none of it is anywhere near what the 'Expert' doom mongers predictions. Strange how the remain orientated Media have not been highlighting this much, I am sure if it had been bad news, we would have had it rammed down our throats every news bulletin with more warnings of woe and bad times to come from 'Expert' speculationists.
As was always the case put forward by leave, there would be some impact but not anywhere near the mega- recession predicted, but some of this actually flies in the face of what they said and is completely the opposite. The only real negative is the value of the pound/exchange rates which seem to have become a bit more stable recently, so with less uncertainty now due to the figures in the article, provided it continues there is no reason these should not make a bit of a recovery in not to distant future.
There was another report about record numbers of student getting university places after the 'A' level results, so the predicted crash there was also wide of the mark. Also apart form the Luxury end, the housing market/prices are still increasing with more first time buyers than in recent years (you can find the reports if you look on line).
** this post does not reflect the way this poster voted for the referendum. My view is we voted, there was a result so lets move on. What I am pretty peeved at is rather than take this view and work together to get the best outcome, some sections of the Media (Agenda maybe?) have been very vocal in speculating and predicting a massive disaster for the UK and its economy, almost as if they were trying to talk it into happening to prove themselves right - this has not happened and is looking less likely (see last paragraph of the article re: Moody's) but none have yet (to my knowledge) admitted they and the experts even 'might' have got it wrong.
On the student / uni front it's my understanding that from this year entry numbers are no longer restricted so that unis can accept as many students as they can get their hands on.
But the falling pound would be the only immediate indicator - I'm not sure how data a month or two after the vote, and before the UK leaves the EU, can be used to show there will not be a negative economic outcome.
I'm not sure where you get the idea that the pound has become more stable, unless you mean it has fallen so low it can't go much further.
This is the last 30 days rate:
The pound has lost 12% against the Euro since the vote.
Given that we have a trade deficit with the EU, that is going to have an impact.
Rather than leading their business news with this positive report, the BBC went with yet another 'expert speculationist' article on 'what brexit MIGHT mean for the City' (financial in London). I am certain the BBC have an agenda for pushing the more remain view, I think they are doubly disappointed that they got it wrong and I think they actually believe the view that all those who vote leave are 'not as intelligent and lack understanding of the real issues' - which unfortunately (IMO) does come across when some of the higher profile hosts have discussions on their shows.
Grey, I understand your point, but before the vote all the financial 'experts' though the pound was overvalued by around 10% anyway - but as I said, now that Moody's (one of if not the most influential Agency in it's field) has stated it does not now think the UK will have a recession due to leaving the EU, and with these figures some of the uncertainty that drove the value down are now a lot less so providing the UK can keep control of its finances (and maybe improve them), there is no reason not to expect the pound to rise again over time.
SimonC - Unfortunately the official Gov. data for July is not available until Sept 9th (next release date), the August information only goes as far as June. However, from personal experience of the companies I visits all can tell you is the following:
There has been a slow down in some industries (Construction, Some Service industries such as Facilities Management etc.) but this is because there has been a temporary stop on investment until some of the uncertainty settles down. So it is not that the investment is not there, just that it is not being released as yet, so this is holding up some contract renewals or new that have been tendered for. There is some confidence that the funds will start to be release just before or just after Christmas 2016.
For those Companies that export, it is not necessarily to the EU but the rest of the world where the increase has been, mainly due to the fall in value of the pound. A good number are reporting record sales in the last few months because although exchange rates make it cheaper, their customer are ordering more.
So now a bit of reality has set in and the EU can see that being hard line about the exit deal could damage them as much or even more so than the UK (with what is happening over there already re: short time working and shut downs in some industries) ...... so maybe we will be getting a much better deal than may thought.
This is a little amusing:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/29/brexit-royal-yacht-britannia-eu ;biggrin
"Meanwhile the rest of the world looks on at our pantomime politics with bemused perplexity, irritation or mockery.
Best was the utter incredulity of the European parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, at the sheer nerve of Boris Johnson promising Turkey to be its strongest advocate for joining the EU.
“So Boris Johnson wants to help Turkey join the EU – after he just campaigned for the UK to leave the EU on the basis that Turkey would be joining the EU in the near future,” he wrote on Facebook. Just remember all those warnings of Turks poised at our borders."
You couldn't make it up, although where Boris is concerned you probably can.
The Repeal Bill would only comes into law (in other words, be an Act of Parliament) once it has Royal Assent. And even when it has Royal Assent, a future date can be set for it to actually take effect.
The 'in effect' date will have to be the day we leave the EU (that is, maximum time, 2 yrs after Article 50 invoked) otherwise there will be a massive gap in law, since all the direct effect EU legislation will have fallen away.
Given that an Act requires 11 stages through both houses of parliament before it can get Royal Assent, I think they would be best to get started on it quite quickly. To delay getting it introduced for its first stage much after the trigger or Article 50 would be cutting it very fine.
thorn, I think you are wrong on this.
Maybe she got it wrong
Her comments mean (I think)
On exit day, there will be new UK legislation on the shelf, ready to go (ie having gone through Parliament + got Royal Assent) that will effectively enshrine EU law into domestic law.
Simultaneously, the 'old' existing EU law will be repealed.
But both the 'repeal legislation' and 'new' legislation will have to have completed their respective Parliamentary processes, and have their Royal Assent sorted, and their 'commencement dates' synchronised.
For that to happen, they'll be getting a wiggle on with both - can't wait to sort the repeal out until after the 'UK version of EU law' is in place, because then they'll have conflicting/overlapping statute on the books and all will be confusion.
Seems like a massive waste of time....