Brexit

Cuz1

Hold fire bubbles they ain’t worth it

IronHerb

Sorry c&b but they may have to own it but they certainly won't be the ones to suffer for it.

BubblesNeverDies

Been a bit quiet here lately so I thought I'd post this link that I saw on the BBC HYS today:

https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-brexity-lies-that-have-gone-mega.html

MrsGrey

Two months later, still in the same position ;doh

How long can this incompetent shambles of a govt keep up the pretence of authority?

Yeoldhammer

Another referendum is needed and another General Election shortly after is needed.

Yeoldhammer

Yeoldhammer said:

She will be back in Parliament in 2 weeks trying to get the same deal that was voted down through.

Strike that 2 months later !

ASLEFshrugged

MrsGrey said:

Two months later, still in the same position ;doh

How long can this incompetent shambles of a govt keep up the pretence of authority?

For as long as the DUP gives them enough votes to defeat a motion of no confidence - which unless more Tory MPs defect to The Independent Group could be until 5th May 2022.

OldCastleSwift

MrsGrey said:

Two months later, still in the same position ;doh

How long can this incompetent shambles of a govt keep up the pretence of authority?

Who saw that coming?

Oh yeah. Everyone.

History will not be kind to her.

ammerinaberdeen

Out, NO DEAL

grey_til_I_dye

ammerin

So you'd be happy with a no deal Brexit, even though all the forecasts are that that would be disastrous for the UK?

Moojor

grey_til_I_dye said:

ammerin

So you'd be happy with a no deal Brexit, even though all the forecasts are that that would be disastrous for the UK?

I honestly don't think that a lot of people who voted to leave listened to or believed any of the various reports and forecasts that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK.
I got the feeling that most felt that was a load of rubbished whipped up by various groups to scare people in to voting remain. Where as of course the Boris bus was the bastion of truth.

OldCastleSwift

Everything that is wrong with Westminster. Party over country ;angry

MrsGrey

OldCastleSwift said:

Everything that is wrong with Westminster. Party over country ;angry

That's exactly how we got into this situation in the first place, imo.

MrsGrey

Moojor said:

I honestly don't think that a lot of people who voted to leave listened to or believed any of the various reports and forecasts that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK.
I got the feeling that most felt that was a load of rubbished whipped up by various groups to scare people in to voting remain.

I agree. But as the years have gone by, we have a lot more information on how the economic situation will worsen. It is pretty much undisputed that we'll be worse off economically, once out.

I know that some folks are prepared to suffer serious economic hardship (or at least see the rest of us suffer it) for the other perceived advantages of being out.

But I wonder how many who previously dismissed the assessments as 'project fear' now see them as 'project reality' and would disagree that the benefits outweigh the costs. Purely academic, as we will never know, and it's too late.

OldCastleSwift

ERG have said no to the deal.

Looks like we're heading towards an extension and a People's Vote.

MrsGrey

DUP have said No, too.

chicagohammer

What a mess, part of me thinks it would be best to simply call the whole thing off and maybe go in to bat in a couple of years when a broader understanding of the consequences could be hopefully established, however, delaying it for such a period creates such uncertainty that I truly think the feared dire consequences of leaving would almost become a self fulfilled prophecy.

There is saying over here about “doing your business or get off the pot”

IronHerb

ammerinaberdeen said:

Out, NO DEAL

And I voted remain.

MrsGrey

It was always possible to foresee this outcome, imo.

The 'Leave/Remain' vote was such a blunt instrument - the result offered no indication as to what Leavers (who are not an homogeneous group) saw as the priorities, wanted the future to be like, or what trade-offs would be acceptable.

As a result of THAT, the negotiators went in with an agenda they made up ('red lines') and for which they didn't have a mandate.

Inevitably, what they came back with was deal that suited nobody.

MrsGrey

Ironically, the fact that the united group of member states 'won' in the negotiations with a single non-member tells you all you need to know about how much economic and political clout the solo UK will have on a world stage.

ammerinaberdeen

Grey it’s not all forecasts that say it will be disastrous. In my opinion we will do very well in the long run. Europe need us more than we need them. The trade deals we can do outside the EU will be better for us. We import far more from the EU than we export to them!

grey_til_I_dye

ammerin

Long term, the UK may or may but benefit from exiting the EU, but there are clear and immediate problems in a no deal exit, which are the forecasts I was referring to.

MrsGrey

ammerinaberdeen said:

We import far more from the EU than we export to them!

Only if you measure it very crudely. And miss out the really important stuff.

OutcastLondoner

chicagohammer said:

What a mess, part of me thinks it would be best to simply call the whole thing off and maybe go in to bat in a couple of years when a broader understanding of the consequences could be hopefully established, however, delaying it for such a period creates such uncertainty that I truly think the feared dire consequences of leaving would almost become a self fulfilled prophecy.

There is saying over here about “doing your business or get off the pot”

We only ever had a debate about it after the vote. Before that we just had propaganda. Right-wing media had been preparing ground for it for years, then you had a Remain campaign that had no idea about how to engage people who wanted to leave.

MrsGrey

ammerin, accepting for a moment your suggestion that the balance of trade is a reliable measure of who needs whom the most....

If you just measure goods, we do import more than we export ... BUT our exports to the EU account for a bigger share of our GDP than the EU exports to us represent for them.

So, in reality, we need them more than they need us.

And that's just for goods.

If you include services in your assessment of EU-UK trade, you will find that we have a trade surplus. The service economy represents 80% of our economy - so is much more important than the trade in goods.

And, as for goods, you can see that really we need them more than they need us: the % of our GDP deriving from our service exports to the EU (around 7%) compares unfavourably with the % of their GDP deriving from exports to us ( approx 1%).

claretandbluesky

When we needed a steady head and someone to tell the truth about how to exit after the referendum, she however fell woefully short and came out with that 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'we are going to have a red, white and blue brexit' nonsense, and they cheered as her instinctive strategy was born, confront with as little displeasing as possible and keep kicking the can down the alley.

She could have been honest and said I can do a deal in which we leave and surrender some voice and the economy takes a hit, but a sustainable one,

or I can do a deal in which we simply walk away but the economy will be decimated and may take years to recover, we may also see our borrowing costs raise which would put would the final knife in.

Or we can decide not to leave but I know some may want smash the place up and I have to take that into account and some part of responsibility as my party will have provided the narrative you are using for justification.

What I can't do is pretend we can leave and derive the same benefits of remaining a member because if that were allowed there would be no EU.

We got the politics wrong and allowed this situation to develop and we take responsibility for that, but what do you want us to do now?

Yeoldhammer

Simpler to just Veto everything in the EU and force treaty change than go through Brexit

Vorselaarhammer

I think we need a general election, not another referendum..

Let both party state their position plus the Scotland and Irish...

Too much sitting on the fence by Labour through the whole process...

ASLEFshrugged

Vorselaarhammer said:

I think we need a general election, not another referendum..

Let both party state their position plus the Scotland and Irish...

Too much sitting on the fence by Labour through the whole process...

There's virtually no chance of getting a General Election before 2022.

While the Tories might be split over Brexit they are in agreement that its better to be in government than risk not being in government and the DUP aren't going to rock the boat because they know they'll never get to wag the dog again.

claretandbluesky

I am not sure that would work as there are so many that the decision with regard EU membership may not relate to their party affiliations. Many Tory voters may be in favour of EU membership but completely against labour general manifesto policy, and vice versa, Imagine so many working class people in the north east who want to leave but find themselves having to vote for the party who decimated their communities, that would stick in the throat.

It's a binary choice this issue, one that should never have been put to the public as it is so woven into our existential well being at this point in time that no chances should have been taken. However as it was put, it can only be verified now we know what the deal actually is, rather than the one sold, by putting it again.