Brexit: the next stage. Deal or No Deal? (and the General Election)

IronHerb

Sinn Fein getting 7 seats gives the Tories a little more wiggle room as they refuse to take up their seats. This makes an effective house to 644 seats meaning 323 is the magic number leaving them 5 short of a majority.

Adam

baracks_a_hammer said:

How much of last night was down to a backlash against the tories and how much down to being genuinely impressed with labour I wonder?

Completely agree, Baracks.
All the people I've talked to about labour, never say anything about Labour's policies. It's only about how bad the Tories are (May in particular).

Very good campaign from Labour, I must say. They got it spot on. But I do have some respect for May for trying to get a better majority (which was kind of needed really for them). Obviously back-fired though!

baracks_a_hammer

billybondsbeard said:

Its speaks volumes to me that May is happy to get into bed with the DUP to form a government. They are after all the official wing of the loyalist paramilitaries who along with the IRA, killed 1000's in the Troubles. Yet Corbyn is an IRA sympathiser for speaking to Sinn Fein ???
#doublestandards ;angry

Politics is nothing but a game bbb

The Tories would have known the hatred of the dup towards Corbyn and his shadow chancellor and have struck quickly to pounce on this and prevent labour from trying to create a minority government

MrsGrey

baracks_a_hammer said:

Yes but mrs g you don't have look outside of your party to find deeply contrasting views on certain issues.

;ok My point really was that there will be trade-offs - what will the DUP want from the Tories in return, if they agree to back them on various issues. Will the Tories give them everything they ask? The DUP will have an eye to their own agenda and their own 'constituency' so won't just sign off on everything they are asked to support.

I'm not sure the alliance will hold up as long as you suggest it will.

NEoldiron

The result is IMO purely an anti-Brexit backlash and this was the only way to express it.

baracks_a_hammer

I don't agree NE

Plenty of other issues such as austerity, the dementia tax etc.

NEoldiron

Baracks, I think those points just added to it. ;ok.
Poorer economy = more austerity etc.
The Brexit result has harmed the economy already and when it finally happens it'll be worse.

MrsGrey

baracks, I agree with you.

May tried to make it all abut Brexit, but I think voters pretty much ignored that and voted on a wider range of national issues. Which is as it should be.

I think she massively misjudged the situation.

madridhammer

And another thing,whatever side you are on re Brexit,getting into bed with the DUP has just made any settlement almost impossible. Bearing in mind the DUP position on not just Brexit but the Irish border,which of course is the EU border,the Taoiseach in Dublin will block their every move.You really couldn't make this up.Strong and stable or a coalition of chaos,anyone?

baracks_a_hammer

NEoldiron said:

The Brexit result has harmed the economy already and when it finally happens it'll be worse.

Has it conclusively though - fx rates have struggled but the euro is still above the 1.1 it was at several years ago.

The ftse is riding high

Me personally I've not been busier since post brexit. It probably has nothing to do with brexit however painting a universally bleak picture already is little premature IMO

IronHerb

So you know what Brexit looks like NE? Please tell as no one else has a clue.

baracks_a_hammer

On another front, what now for the queen of Scots??

Yeoldhammer

If she bins Indeyref2 and goes back to marketing herself as a competent leader by actually dealing with Scotlands problems, she and the SNP will gain traction again.

MrsGrey

Nicked from FB:

Theresa May warned of a coalition of chaos propped up by extremist terrorist sympathisers. She just didn't say she'd be leading it.

NEoldiron

Baracks, Herb, I'm sure that you've already seen these, but just on the off-chance

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business
http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/united-kingdom-economic-forecast-summary.htm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-40219398/election-2017-how-the-outcome-hit-the-pound

SuzanneClaret

Spouting about how she's going to deal with terrorists one day and cosying up the the political wing of the PIRA the next.

Woman has no morals and will do anything to cling to power.

IronHerb

So LSB says May threw the election and Suze says she's clinging on by any means. ;hmm

SuzanneClaret

;biggrin

Yeoldhammer

I suspect we've seen the end of the tabloids as arbiters of UK politics. Sun, Mail & Express threw all they had into backing May, & failed.



DIE DIE DIE !

NEoldiron

Herb, it's all a very subtle cunning plan worthy of Blackadder to confuse all and sundry (especially the Tory Party) ;biggrin

IronHerb

Well I'm confused for sure. ;biggrin

MrsGrey

I imagine the meeting between Ruth Davidson and her party's new allies will be an awkward one.


(Actually, reading about her views on various issues, I can't see why she is a Tory. Maybe she'll defect ;biggrin )

SuzanneClaret

MrsGrey

Last result in - Labour took Kensington from the Tories. By 20 votes ;nonono


#endofdays #endofMays

Laurasupababe

MrsGrey said:

baracks, I agree with you.

May tried to make it all abut Brexit, but I think voters pretty much ignored that and voted on a wider range of national issues. Which is as it should be.

I think she massively misjudged the situation.

MrsGrey,
Not only did she and I think it must be said her advisers badly misjudge the situation also I think they treated the core Tory voters with arrogance with some of their manifesto proposals. They came across as thinking they could do nothing wrong when infact they did very little right throughout the campaign. When I read of the large numbers of people registering to vote, which I think it's safe to assume were mostly young and would probably be more inclined to vote Labour I thought the result would not be the foregone conclusion the polls at the time suggested and in final voting percentage the parties ended up very close, quite an achievement by Corbyn and Labour from the huge gap between the two at the start of the Election Campaign.
Interestedly Corbyn has emerged stronger as Labour leader and his position is now secure and hopefully all his MP's will not work with him. May on the other hand is badly damaged and looked at times to be clueless as to what to do, not the strong and stable leader she claims to be.

TwistandShout

MrsGrey

So it's not going to be a formal alliance, but a 'confidence and supply' agreement.

In other words, the Tories (sorry, I mean the Conservative and Unionist party ;doh ) will ask for the DUP to back them on specific issues, and the DUP will hold the Tories to ransom.


There are so many areas of conflict. And if the Tories give way on some issues, they will alienate their own back-benchers, so unless they impose a 3-line whip, they will be no better off. I genuinely can't see how this is going to last beyond 2017.

Still, I guess if you are Theresa May, you hope by the time it all goes pear-shaped, there's a new scapegoat you can blame it all on, and you can cling on to power by any means necessary.

ASLEFshrugged

The Tory Party rules are that if 15% of MPs - 48 - write to the 1922 committee saying they have no confidence in the leadership then candidates can mount a challenge

claretandbluesky

In which case I give her until Tuesday week.

I think most people feel she is merely holding the door now whilst a new leader is chosen behind the scenes, the possible candidates are likely canvassing backing as we speak. The most obvious conclusion ever from that election is that the Tory party will never call an election again whilst she is leader and as another election is necessary to govern she has to go sooner or later. The problem is they are unsure of even winning the next one so may wait until they have rode out this storm and built a new fictional narrative about being strong and stable again.

chicagohammer

I can see May being ousted as leader, but why do we think that there will be another election, does not the fixed term act require that 66% of MPs need to agree to hold another one before the 4 year term is up.

IMO the Tories surely can feel the breath of labour on their necks and would be very reluctant to agree.

I think there might be different rules if a no confidence vote is held???