Brexit: the next stage. Deal or No Deal? (and the General Election)

MrsGreyMrsGrey
edited June 2017 in General Chatter
With over 2.5k comments over 84 pages ( here http://www.whu606.com/discussion/9501/the-uk-is-out-new-pm-and-whither-now-for-article-50) the old thread has become a bit unwieldy.

So, as we reach 'trigger day' here's a new one.

On your marks, get set, go. ;run
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Comments

  • SuzanneClaretSuzanneClaret
    Brexit: UK's most prominent ex-ministers unite against Theresa May's 'no deal' threat. As Article 50 is triggered, Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson and Vince Cable warn of catastrophic consequences.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-50-brexit-theresa-may-michael-heseltine-peter-mandelson-vince-cable-a7654896.html
  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    A quick guide to the government's negotiating strategy:

    dornod
  • ASLEFshruggedASLEFshrugged
    edited March 2017
    Trigger Day? Do we have to call everyone ''Dave''?

    Suze - Mandy warns that everything will be catastrophic unless we rigidly follow the doctrine of St Antony of Blair. Frankly if Mandy says it's bad it's probably good so chucking him in detracts from anything Tarzan and Sir Vincelot have to say
  • SuzanneClaretSuzanneClaret
    ASLEFshrugged said:

    Trigger Day? Do we have to call everyone ''Dave''?

    Suze - Mandy warns that everything will be catastrophic unless we rigidly follow the doctrine of St Antony of Blair.

    ;lol ;lol
  • YeoldhammerYeoldhammer
    edited March 2017
    Discussed this with a friend couple days ago. We both said the 50 billion bill would be the sticking point. It seems from Merkels comments this is exactly right. I can see this wrangling on for months. So long, that any negotiations aftee this is resolved will be so last minute that we end up just leaving after 2 years with no negotiations because the brexit bill sucked up all the time.
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    Yeoldhammer said:

    Discussed this with a friend couple days ago. We both said the 50 billion bill would be the sticking point. It seems from Merkels comments this is exactly right. I can see this wrangling on for months. So long, that any negotiations aftee this is resolved will be so last minute that we end up just leaving after 2 years with no negotiations because the brexit bill sucked up all the time.

    The longer negotiations go on with no resolution to the Brexit bill the better it is for the UK. If no deal is agreed and we walk away than my understanding is that there will be no Brexit bill. No wonder Barnier wants this issue resolved from the outset.
  • IronHerbIronHerb
    There is an extension available.
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    edited March 2017
    But only if the Eu agree, herb.

    Posh - it's been pretty much acknowledged that jumping 'off the cliff' and leaving with no trade deal would be worse for the UK (as it would be defaulting to WTO terms).

    I mean, if it was otherwise(ie WTO terms are so great) why would they be bothering with trying to sort out a trade agreement within the 2 years anyway?

    Also I'm not really sure what you mean by a brexit bill. Can you be more precise? There has already been one 'brexit bill' and another is expected tomorrow.
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    From today's announcements/interviews etc:

    Govt confirms there will be no way the UK can have access to the single market without also accepting free movement of people. So that idea is off the table.

  • IronHerbIronHerb
    I think Yeold is referring to the financial 'bill' expected of us when we leave.
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    Ah, I thought you were replying to posh. ;lol

    But the fact remains, an extension can be agreed, as you say. To deal with whatever is still unresolved ;ok
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    edited March 2017
    No deal would also be bad for the EU Mrs Grey, don't want to go over old ground but we buy more off the EU, EU jobs as well as their financial well being would be heavily affected should we have no deal.

    We are trying to sort out a trade agreement within the two years but that's only because that is the timescale set out within article 50, but there is no obligation for either party to agree to any deal.

    The Brexit bill is what is being demanded as a divorce settlement by the EU and they're opening gambit has been to ask for £50m, however, my understanding is that we are under no obligation to pay anything should no deal be agreed and we simply leave after 2 years.

    Either way we hold quite a few cards hence why the EU have been talking so much about security today which Theresa May mentioned on numerous occasions within the Article 50 letter.....The EU are already on the back foot from day. Well done team UK 1 ;clap
  • NEoldironNEoldiron
    Poshhammer ;nonono ;nonono
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    NEoldiron said:

    Poshhammer ;nonono ;nonono

    What bit? ;cool
  • IronHerbIronHerb
    £50m? Take it and ;run
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    IronHerb said:

    £50m? Take it and ;run

    This was said on brexit Question Time earlier this week. Hence why the EU have said that they want this bit agreed first before starting trade negotiations.
  • IronHerbIronHerb
    I think you'll findd it's £50 billion. ;ok
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    Haha that's a typo ;doh
  • NEoldironNEoldiron
    Posh, this:

    "Either way we hold quite a few cards hence why the EU have been talking so much about security today which Theresa May mentioned on numerous occasions within the Article 50 letter.....The EU are already on the back foot from day. Well done team UK 1"

    Unsubtle blackmail to link security and trade negotiation ;nonono
  • ASLEFshruggedASLEFshrugged
    edited March 2017
    David Davis and Amber Rudd went on TV this morning to deny there was a threat of non-cooperation on security. Its all a bit confused, as usual......
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    edited March 2017
    NEoldiron said:

    Posh, this:

    Unsubtle blackmail to link security and trade negotiation ;nonono

    Yes but we wanted to discuss the issue over EU nationals long before we even issued Article 50 and the EU declined.
    In any case our security services is paid for by UK tax payers just as the supposed new EU army will be paid for by EU tax payers!
  • NEoldironNEoldiron
    Posh, this might make it clearer:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-article-50-theresa-may-eu-angela-merkel-security-divorce-bill-a7657116.html
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    posh, by 'bill' I thought you meant the legislative instrument, not ££££

    ;lol
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    edited March 2017
    NEoldiron said:

    Posh, this might make it clearer:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-article-50-theresa-may-eu-angela-merkel-security-divorce-bill-a7657116.html

    Standard procedure to reject first proposed terms surely!
  • PoshhammerPoshhammer
    MrsGrey said:

    posh, by 'bill' I thought you meant the legislative instrument, not ££££

    ;lol

    I meant shpondoolies Grey ;thumbsup
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    edited March 2017
    ASLEFshrugged said:

    David Davis and Amber Rudd went on TV this morning to deny there was a threat of non-cooperation on security. Its all a bit confused, as usual......

    And then in the HoC he said that Parliament would be given on vote on whether to stay in the EEA or not (after leaving the EU).

    That has now been corrected in a statement by the Brexit department, which says (if not quite in these words) 'Oh, don't take any notice of him, he's not really sure what's going on. Bless.'
  • Expat_HammerExpat_Hammer
    MrsGrey said:

    posh, by 'bill' I thought you meant the legislative instrument, not ££££

    ;lol

    Oh I thought it was the blokes name ;yercoat
  • NEoldironNEoldiron
    I think it's reasonably fair to assume that the perpetrators are Brexiteers (or in their particular case Brexidiots).
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/article-50-trigger-online-hate-speech-brexit-process-begins-racism-researchers-matt-williams-cardiff-a7656666.html
  • MrsGreyMrsGrey
    edited March 2017
    tbh

    I think they are just idiots.

    "There’s been lots of anti-Muslim sentiment and a spike in homophobic hate speech.”

    Why homophobic? Makes no sense. Which is kind of the point.

    Haters gonna hate.
  • grey_til_I_dyegrey_til_I_dye
    NE

    While it may be that the perpetrators were in favour of Brexit, that doesn't mean they represent a majority view.

    Some people are nuts, and often choose a handy political or religious fig-leaf to try to cover this madness.
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