Brexit: the next stage. Deal or No Deal? (and the General Election)

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  • The general election will be about the "type" of brexit not brexit happening v not IMO
  • Baraks
    The vote was advisory. The result in the end had to be voted on in the commons.
    I could produce reams of info, but just look it up for yourself.

    The difference is now that the truth, (suppressed by the RW media) has come out about the likely long term effects of Brexit, and how isolated we will soon become. Look how Boris was humiliated last week at the G7. The long term economic difficulties we may now face were not spelled out before the vote. And there has been an admission that control of our border post Brexit will not neccesarily bring about the falls in inward net migration that UKIP et al voted for.
    My point is that the remain camp must be mobilised before article 20 is put into place, and the conservatives will be whipped into place to support May. This could be an historic vote if people get organised.

    I would just like to see something truly radical happen for a change, and if JC does not support a way to support it, then he should be replaced afterwards IMO.
  • He's never specifically said so (as far as I know) but I suspect Corbyn is a Brexiteer himself. I think most hardcore Remainers will vote Lib Dem. Expect a 100+ majority for the Tories whatever happens.
  • A lot of Labour left were anti-EU because it supports competition in and privatisation of public services, that was why Bob Crow formed the TUSC as a left wing alternative to UKIP.

    My union backed Leave along with RMT, Unite and others.
  • A lot of Labour left were anti-EU because it supports competition in and privatisation of public services, that was why Bob Crow formed the TUSC as a left wing alternative to UKIP.

    My union backed Leave along with RMT, Unite and others.

    Aslef
    I believe that there will be a positive bonfire of workers rights once we come out of the EU, and if the Tories remain unchecked. There are 2 things at work here - the Tory right and the Media barons seeing Brexit as a way to push workers rights back to pre 1930's levels making any industrial action illegal,(especially those affecting infrastructure and transport !) and a steady dilution of the NHS. - It is already happening in my opinion. I actually believe that we are in the midst of a sea change in politics, no longer defined by Party political history. In or out of Europe is fundementally more important at this stage. We really want to come out of the EU and chance our arm trading with the rest of the world ?? With people like Boris ,Liam Fox and David Davies as representative of our skill base in place ??
    A trade deal with a newly protectionist USA for example ??
    We may be the worlds 5th largest economy, but we have built that over the last few decades of being in the EU and with world renowned companies based here as a result of the EU membership.
    It has worked both ways, and we successfully kept ourselves out of the Euro. We were in a perfect place to reform from within, despite the rage over asylum seekers etc.

    That problem is world wide , endemic due to climate change, sub saharan wars , poverty, disparity in the worlds economies etc, and will be with us for the next couple of decades - whether we are in the EU or not.
  • edited April 2017
    billy ;ok

    The Tory party has always pushed back against workers rights. Once out of the EU, they will quickly set about rolling back protections and rights as far and as fast as they can.

    Anyone who thinks thinks otherwise is (no matter what the PM or any other Tory says) closing their eyes to the lessons of history and refusing to see the reality that is staring them in the face.

    They'll try (as they always do) to brand it as good for the economy and growth, with the (false) implication that all will benefit.

  • I have never been a member of a political party but I have just paid £70 and joined the Lid Dems. They have consistently been the most pro European party so my hope is that many of those that did not want to leave will back them on June 8th. The 48% need a voice that will not be shouted down by noisy brexiteers and anti EU press. A Hard Brexit is not the way forward and other options need to be heard.
  • Clacton is going to be a lot of fun.

    ;wave ;wahoo ;nolan
  • clacton - all round yours, then? ;beer ;redwine ;champagne ;nolan ;barrera ;wahoo
  • edited April 2017

    There are 2 things at work here - the Tory right and the Media barons seeing Brexit as a way to push workers rights back to pre 1930's levels making any industrial action illegal,(especially those affecting infrastructure and transport !)

    In 1926 we had the General Strike, the largest single industrial action in British history, putting workers rights back to pre 1930's levels would be removing the restrictions placed on unions under Thatcher! Making all industrial action illegal for specific groups of workers would lead to the return of Wildcat strikes where members act without union approval.

    and a steady dilution of the NHS. - It is already happening in my opinion.

    It's been happening for over a quarter of a century, starting with the introduction of the "internal market" under the NHS & Community Care Act 1990.
  • Aslef
    By pre 1930,'s I was clearly referring to 1925

    ;biggrin
  • Maybe 1834 when the Tollpuddle Martyrs were transported to Australia for forming a union ;wink
  • This election will be like no other and I feel TM has taken a bigger gamble than she likely imagines. She should win and should increase her majority, but lets make no mistake this is really a vote on Brexit rather than a general election, and this is where it has the potential to surprise everyone. Will many of the brexit voting constituencies vote Tory because they want brexit knowing they will likely get more austerity and have to watch the NHS be run down further. Will Labour voting places support Corbyn, someone who beyond the Labour party membership is viewed by many as hopeless and a leftist experiment at the time it is least needed, or will they shift to Lib Dem in hope of producing a brexit that suits them or reversing it altogether eventually?

    It is my view that whoever can prevent the brexit or remain vote fragmenting least will do very well, and can Labour prevent a diluting of their vote to the Lib Dems? can the tories prevent UKIP splitting the strong brexit vote? There will be shocks and they will come fast and some big names well may lose their seats. In my town the Tory MP has won since before I would have been able to vote, yet it was a strong remain town producing a decisive remain vote. I think our MP may for the first time ever get a little worried.
  • Tory sweep in my opinion. SNP to win another election to push indyref2. Sinn Feinn to push the DUP and push towards a referendum.
  • This election is about Theresa May and nothing else, she wants to silence the opposition within the Tory party by increasing the small majority she inherited from Cameron. It could go one of three ways and all of them have their downsides

    1) large Tory majority. Corbyn resigns, the Labour MPs do not allow a left wing candidate to stand like they did with Corbyn, a moderate/Blairite/soft Tory leader elected who wins the approval of Murdoch and the rest of the media.

    2) small Tory majority. Corbyn resigns etc. but her opponents in the Tory party are still on her case and possibly calling for her resignation for failing to deliver a big enough win

    3) Tories lose. May resigns.

    May has announced there aren't going to be any TV debates, that makes her look scared to discuss the issues.
  • I think the advantage that the Tories have is that the left is divided between a number of different camps. Personally I am already split between Labour / LD / Green. We know UKIP support has dropped, and that has likely moved to the Tories. Unless one of LD and Labour come out with a very clear and unifying plan, I can see it being massively split and the Tories romping it.
  • I think any election fought so shortly after its announcement is pretty flawed, democratically.
  • I think any election fought so shortly after its announcement is pretty flawed, democratically.

    Is it particularly short? In the days before the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, they were always timed by the incumbent party to catch the others on the hop unless they were limping on to the last possible moment, knowing they were going to lose.
  • If I was Lib Dem I would focus my entire campaign on being the opposite of UKIP>.

    A high 40% of the country voted to stay, for me this would actually be a situation where I would vote for a 1 idea party.

    Even if they lose there will still be a party with some of the strong ideals to fight for in the Parliament.

    50% of the Tories want Exit / Labour is a Mess (+ unions like Exit) / SNP is a 1 idea Party / UKIP is a 1 idea party.

    We need one Party that supports the 40%....
  • edited April 2017
    BTW not a surprise an election was called for, in my various discussions I have been predicting this will happen.

    And I think baracks summed it up very well with this post.

    "The general election will be about the "type" of brexit not brexit happening v not IMO"
  • edited April 2017

    If I was Lib Dem I would focus my entire campaign on being the opposite of UKIP>.

    A high 40% of the country voted to stay, for me this would actually be a situation where I would vote for a 1 idea party.

    Even if they lose there will still be a party with some of the strong ideals to fight for in the Parliament.

    50% of the Tories want Exit / Labour is a Mess (+ unions like Exit) / SNP is a 1 idea Party / UKIP is a 1 idea party.

    We need one Party that supports the 40%....

    Actually most unions backed Remain including the big three, Unison, Unite (I know, I got it wrong earlier) and GMB, officially only RMT, ASLEF and the bakers union BFAWU backed Leave.

    The Lib Dems will focus on winning back constituencies where the Remain vote was strong that they lost in 2010 and 2015 or where they traditionally come second. They're not going to have much success trying to win in constituencies where they've not had much support before.

    Having won Richmond Park back they'll be aiming at the other seats in the leafier bits of South West London and out into Surrey, Sussex, etc. Who knows they might even win Maidenhead (53.9% Remain) and then Theresa May will be out!
  • Basically Theresa May has called an election to silence her critics, if she wins then she can turn on them and say that they're going against the voters. In a way its like Ted Heath calling an election in 1974 asking the country "Who governs Britain?"

    And the country answered "Not you, mate".
  • Aslef - You get my point, that Tories / Labour are pretty split on Exit. So we need one party that isn't to be an broker for that side of the argument?

    What we actually need when not talking about a 1 subject vote is Labour to sort themselves out.

    SNP / UKIP / Tories are the only winning parites at the moment. Two Nationalist and the Tories... ;weep
  • First May tells the BBC that there won't be a TV debate before the General Election, now ITV have said they will host a debate with or without May.

    Oh and Yvette Cooper just called May a liar because a) she said there wouldn't be an early election and b) because she says that parliament is blocking Brexit despite 3/4 of the Commons and 2/3 of the Lords voting for Article 50.

    Tears before bedtime....
  • edited April 2017

    I think any election fought so shortly after its announcement is pretty flawed, democratically.

    Is it particularly short? In the days before the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, they were always timed by the incumbent party to catch the others on the hop unless they were limping on to the last possible moment, knowing they were going to lose.
    I'm not sure how it compares to others and, of course, you're right but I think generally, it's a real problem. I would say it's the one of many things we'd signal as a major democratic weakness in a lot of other countries but which we don't think about so much because there's no real risk of our democracy falling apart.

    Of course politicians will take advantage of their opposition's weakness but I think it's unhealthy because you have to fit in campaigning, raising awareness about voter registration/importance in voting in some constituencies, tackle voter fatigue etc. I guess this might all come across as kind of academic but I think it does matter because I think this contributes to people viewing politics with such disdain.
  • edited April 2017
    MrsGrey said:

    There was a referendum in 1975 on EU membership.

    Not sure why we needed another... unless those who weren't happy with the result thought it a good idea to keep going until they got the result they wanted. ;wink



    The EU did not exist in 1975, we voted to continue membership of the Common Market and EEC - and actually that referendum was not legally binding either but was agreed on face value to be the will of the British people whichever way it went and the final say - as the EU stay/leave Referendum was. The 1975 vote was supposed to be a mutual trading group - I don't remember anything being said back then about signing away out sovereignty, allowing free movement of people across boarders, creating an unelected commission to dictate our laws etc. (if there had been I believe it would have been a no vote). Those things came about through successive Government (on all sides) signing ever more binding agreements and treaty's without the consent of the British people.
  • I wonder if someone will launch a crowd-funded single-issue party called something catchy like "The Remain Party" ;hmm.
    Could it actually be done in time?

  • edited April 2017

    Those things came about through successive Government (on all sides) signing ever more binding agreements and treaty's without the consent of the British people.

    Not quite true.

    There's an assumption of deemed consent, unless you think every single decision, with all the relevant small print, has to either be part of a manifesto commitment at a GE, or put to a referendum? In which case, no doubt, you'll be all in favour of Parliament (at the very least) having a say on the small print of the Brexit negotiations, as they proceed.

    Added to which, while some of the agreement were 'ever more binding' (not quite sure exactly what that means- surely an agreement is either binding or not?) some were to opt out or secure derogations. So perhaps could be called ever less binding ;hmm
  • edited April 2017
    It is true though that the EU of today bears little resemblance to the Common Market/EEC that the British electorate voted to join in 1975.

    I personally feel that most Europeans would be happier with the principle ideas of that version rather than what exists today; I think most people in Europe think of themselves as being French or German or Italian etc rather than being European, but that doesn't seem to be the way the EU wants to head.
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