The Final 8

Yeoldhammer

So with 8 games left till the end of the season. The race for a top 4 spot is still as tight as ever.

Leicester on 56 points down to Aston Villa on 44 points very much in the race.
(assuming Manchester United are there or thereabouts to securing a top 4 spot and Leeds and Arsenal are too far out)

Fixtures remaining:-

Italics = Top 6 clash / Teams competing for a top 4 place.


West Ham

West Ham United v Leicester City
Newcastle United v West Ham United
West Ham United v Chelsea
Burnley v West Ham United
West Ham United v Everton
Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion v West Ham United
West Ham United v Southampton


Leicester City (Also in the FA Cup Semi Finals still)

West Ham United v Leicester City
Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion
Leicester City v Crystal Palace
Southampton v Leicester City
Leicester City v Newcastle United
Manchester United v Leicester City
Chelsea v Leicester City
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur


Chelsea (Also in the Champions League and FA Cup Semi Finals still)

Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion
West Ham United v Chelsea
Chelsea v Fulham
Manchester City v Chelsea
Chelsea v Arsenal
Chelsea v Leicester City
Aston Villa v Chelsea


Spurs (Also in the League Cup Final)

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
Tottenham Hotspur v Sheffield United
Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa
Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur


Liverpool (Also in the Champions League)

Liverpool v Aston Villa
Leeds United v Liverpool
Liverpool v Newcastle United
Manchester United v Liverpool
Liverpool v Southampton
West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool v Crystal Palace


Everton

Brighton & Hove Albion v Everton
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal v Everton
Everton v Aston Villa
West Ham United v Everton
Everton v Sheffield United
Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City v Everton


Aston Villa

Liverpool v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Manchester City
Aston Villa v West Bromwich Albion
Everton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Chelsea

Lukerz

Looking at those fixtures, Liverpool are going to be faves for top four I would say. The question is, will Leicester fall out, as at the moment the general feeling is that it’s only one place up for grabs. It could be two.

I don’t think Villa or Everton are realistically in it. Everton have won 1 home game in 2021. That’s not form that will get them top four. I don’t think they are that good.

Yeoldhammer

Villa / Everton / Chelsea all with difficult run ins.

Liverpool with the easiest run in.

Spurs / Leicester / West Ham all with half decent run ins.

Yeoldhammer

I believe there is also an Aston Villa v Everton match that was postponed in January that needs to be played. So there is a double header in there somewhere for both teams against one another which could (if either teams wins both put them right in the mix) So i wouldn't count either of them out just yet.

alderz

IMO, it’s going to be us, Leicester, Everton and Spurs in a fight for 5th. I can’t see a situation where Liverpool and Chelsea finish below us. MAYBE one will, but surely not both.

yoyo

This is going to be nail bitingly close

buffybegood

Villa are too far back imo

baracks_a_hammer

A lot will depend on whether Liverpool are now back to their deadly best. They certainly seemed so v Arsenal, but then again Arsenal were truly dreadful.

I don’t see why Chelsea couldn’t slip up. They might not lose many, but there still might be a few draws for them.

Yeoldhammer

Yeoldhammer

i dont think Villa or Everton are out of it. Shoula Villa win the game in hand against Everton (i think thats the game in hand they have) they are still in it, and Everton certainly will be if they do. If Villa lose it then yeah they might be too far back.

Yeoldhammer

Its statistically likely that at least out of the 7 teams in the top 4 race each team is roughly likely to lose 2 fixtures in the final 8. So as long as teams are within that "6 point margin" they are roughly still in it which Villa would be if they win the game in hand.

IronHerb

7 of Villas last 9 games are against teams in the top 8! They're doomed.

WHU_Champo_league_in_7_years

Villa won't get top 4, but they could decide it as most have to play them

For me, Liverpool run in (and having Jota back and Fabinho in midfield again) means they will likely finish in the top 4


Leicester have an awful run in, if they haven't got a cushion going into the last 3 games they may bottle it again

Chelsea under Tuchel have been pretty good the WBA meltdown aside

Going to be so tight, going to be tricky for us, we really need to pick up points against both Leicester and Chelsea, even if its 1 for both, to have a chance

Fortuneseeker

Ironherb, In saying that they could have a big say in where teams finish. When is that “great” player Grealish fit again? 😀

Yeoldhammer

at the other end of the table though. Brighton / WBA / Newcastle have a lot of games against the top half. Fulham have a real good chance of getting out of it.

Fortuneseeker

I know it will be unpopular with many on here as it involves CFC but I think it might be in our favour for all the English teams left in the European competitions to stay involved for as long as possible until them winning one of the trophies, apart from MCFC, does have an adverse affect on us qualifying for Europe next season. I want Manchester City to win the Carabao Cup apart from the obvious reason! I understand IF they win it the place allocated to the winners will mean an additional slot will be open from a league position & a FA Cup final between Leicester v Chelsea/ Manchester City will have the same outcome if they all finish in the Euro Qualifying slots?

OutcastLondoner

The reason losing the 3-0 lead against Arsenal, then almost losing it again this week was annoying is that we've been very consistent. We've rarely let in a goal and then caved as old West Ham did. If we take away the lessons of the past two weeks, then I think we actually might get 4th. The last three gameweeks results have been in our favour, because the teams around us are dropping points and I think they'll continue to.

Liverpool are the only team I see really picking up with Jota back and Fabinho able to play in midfield again instead of as a defender. If we beat Leicester they're back in the scrap for top 4. Let's see what happens with Chelsea, hopefully the new manager bounce has been disrupted by the international break.

OldCastleSwift

There'll be a few more weird results along the way. Chelsea losing to West Brom came out of nowhere and I expect a few more of those. Hopefully we'll benefit from them, although with Newcastle, Brighton and West Brom all likely desperate for points when we play them, it could be us that get caught out.

Yeoldhammer

West Brom might be relegated by the time we play them. 2nd last game.
Southampton will have nothing to play for unless they beat Leicester in the FA Cup in which case they will rest players on the final day.
Burnley should be relatively safe by the time we play them.
Brighton may or may not be safe but i reckon this game will be the hardest out of the 5 games against the bottom lot we play.
Newcastle depends which side turns up.

IronHerb

Cup Final is 15th May, the week before we play Southampton.

Yeoldhammer

they're playing the FA Cup Final before the final week of games O_O

OutcastLondoner

Hopefully we have Ogbonna back for the final 5 or 6. This Diop and Dawson partnership hasn't worked out. There doesn't seem to be great communication between them. They've both done good things but also made mistakes. You'd assume it would Diop who makes way based on Dawson's previous performances, though I also don't think Dawson has been the same player he was alongside Ogbonna. We don't seem to have been in the types of situations where he has to throw his body at things as much as we were before, which is what he was best at. Diop's been good at getting his foot it (thought he did it quite well a few times last night) but sometimes gets beaten stepping up high and also still makes the same mistakes of losing concentration, so think he'll make way. He reminds me of Tomkins a bit in that sense.

Lukerz

Dawson I think had an outstanding start but I always felt he was going to fall off a eventually. They have done well as a pairing though in the main. We’ve had some very tough games & we haven’t been disgraced. 13 points from 7 games & we’ve played the likes of Man Utd, Man City, Spurs, Arsenal, Leeds etc.

OutcastLondoner

Yeah they’ve definitely been ok as a pairing. I just feel there have been lapses. Maybe it’s also just the high standard we had with Ogbonna that has made me more critical of this one.

IronHerb

Dawson is trying to do two mens jobs as Diop keeps getting caught out of position or under the ball. I don't think his form has dropped off so much.

baracks_a_hammer

Diop got caught out for their second goal. I don’t think that would have happened with Ogbonna

claretandbluesky

Just looking at the points total achieved by the 4th placed team.

20 - 66
19 - 71
18 - 75
17 - 76
16 - 66
15 - 70

It looks as though it will be somewhere between 66-70 this year in my view.

Lukerz

I think that tells us we probably need 70 points to be in with a shout. 18 points from 8 games.

Cuz1

And the other clubs around us will need similar points tallies so could be close, on those figures Leicester would need 14 to reach 70

claretandbluesky

I think we need 6 points from the next three matches to keep us in the race, 5 if the win was Newcastle.

Yeoldhammer

7 to go i think Villa might be out of it now especially if they lose to Everton. Everton need to win to get back in the mix.