Brexit

Expat_Hammer

MrsGrey said:

I am offended by being called a remoaner.

I don't think it helps the debate to use perjorative terms about other people.

No offence intended, quite a few of them refer to themselves as such

BubblesNeverDies

On another note, why is there not a "I disagree" thumbs down reaction?

grey_til_I_dye

Bubbles

Because it isn't useful or needed.

We've never had, or intended to have a 'points' system on the board.

The 'agree' button is really only there to reduce the number of posts which are just a thumbs up/^this^ reaction. The other reaction buttons have a similar purpose.

If someone disagrees with a post they can either say nothing, or say why; it is, after all, primarily a discussion forum.

BubblesNeverDies

Grey, ;ok

grey_til_I_dye

I see what you did there...

Whitehorsehammer

Bubbles - If there is another referendum, which IMO is looking increasingly likely, the remain campaign needs to get some strong voices being heard. The Brexiters have some very loud voices that work hard to dominate media coverage. Unfortunately JC, in this context, has been a waste of space, Keir Starmer has got better as time has gone on, but he needs help. There are plenty out there but they need start making the argument of what is good about the EU.

BubblesNeverDies

Grey, moi, que voulez-vous dire? ;angel

claretandbluesky

I think the term remoaner needs to be left aside if this thread is going to be able to be sustained in an adult way and based upon views. There are lazy tabloid names for both sides.

As for Corbyn Bubbles he thinks he can renegotiate the price of his house once he has moved in judging by his most recent interview.

grey_til_I_dye

I like most of what Corbyn stands for, and generally admire the man.

On this issue, I think he has failed as a leader, simply because he is making no real effort to support the Labour position of remain, as it clashes with his personal opinion/preference.

For me, he should either have represented the party position wholeheartedly, or stepped down.

claretandbluesky

I agree, I think he has put all his hope in us crashing out and being able to win an election after being led out of the EU by the tories. Time will tell if he is as clever as he thinks he is or has just missed a momentous opportunity to show leadership and convince those who doubt his ability that they can trust him. The govt needed opposition at this time and he has provided little. Kier would make the better leader in my view and I think would have been more active in opposition if able to lead.

BubblesNeverDies

IMO, Labour will never win a GE with Corbyn as leader.

claretandbluesky

I tend agree Bubbles but these are strange times and the Tories could implode enough to hand him a way in, at best in a minority govt held up by SNP and Lib Dems.

ASLEFshrugged

I disagree.

Labour got 29% in 2010 with Brown as leader and a "Blairite" manifesto
Labour got 30.4% in 2015 with Miliband and a slightly less "Blairite" manifesto.
Labour got 40% in 2017 with Corbyn and a slightly left wing manifesto.

One poll at the weekend gave CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 8%. Another gave CON 36%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%.

An average of those numbers would give Labour 300 seats, 26 seats short of a majority and only the SNP with enough seats to cover the gap

Yeoldhammer

before the snap election, polls had us at another hung parliament before Conservatives stormed it.

I wouldn't put much faith in polls these days.

ASLEFshrugged

Most polls before the 2017 GE had the Conservatives winning a majority, only YouGov predicted a hung parliament.

electoralcalculus.com not only predicts outcomes it also gives a list of which seats would change and which MPs would lose their seats.

Ian Duncan Smith, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening and Zac Goldsmith all with plenty of spare time to look forward to.

Yeoldhammer

Polls also had the Remain vote in the referendum ahead by 55% to 45% / 58% to 42% I believe before the vote.

Kuchinghammer

Living overseas, I stay out of this debate. But my daughter has just visited, and she's totally depressed about how the issue has divided the country so deeply. Those in Britain living through thus have my heartfelt sympathy.

ASLEFshrugged

Yeoldhammer said:

before the snap election, polls had us at another hung parliament before Conservatives stormed it.

I wouldn't put much faith in polls these days.

The Conservatives lost 13 seats and their majority. Storming it?

Yeoldhammer

Sorry I meant the election before the snap one i.e the 2015 one.

Yeoldhammer

but as you pointed out for the 2017 one too, the Polls have been pretty off for a while now.

Not sure where they are polling or maybe because the vote is quite tight but the majority of polls for the last 2 elections and referendum have been wide of the mark.

The next election could go either way at this point. Corbyn has cultivated a young vote and a movement but will not gain centre ground seats. Conservatives mismanagement and party cracks on Brexit has broken their vote.

Lib Dems I think will make some clawbacks unless something miraculous changes occur. (which could very well happen considering what has happened since 2015. Both here and globally...)

ASLEFshrugged

In 2015 the polls underestimated the Tory vote but the big failure was not predicting the SNP winning 56 out of 59 seats.

In 2017 they underestimated Labour's vote.

sweepy23

2015 was not a vote for the Tories but a vote for a referendum. Cameron never thought he'd win, always thought with another coalition government he could've backed out of a referendum.

The votes then were somewhat party based but people changed allegiances just to get Brexit. That still happened a bit in 2017. No one knows the true polls until Brexit is out of the way.

claretandbluesky

I think the last election was framed by brexit, as the next will likely be also. On account of this however I think Labour have assumed the last a big vote for Corbyn as leader but I think he is possibly the problem for labour in as much as real hardcore Labour supporters love him more than any other but the middle ground voters who often decide elections are less trusting of him than they would be of Keir Starmer. I think were KS leader the hardcore would still vote Labour without question but he would be able to win over more of those floating voters who are not cast in Blue or Red but open to persuasion. I think they would trust him more with the economy and isn't as easily attacked as JC is by the right wing media.

claretandbluesky

Back to Brexit there is a case due at the European court next week to decide if the UK can unilaterally withdraw article 50, although no side will admit it at present it could change the picture somewhat.

I think article 50 is the biggest shaper of negotiations as by having a legal framework for leaving that ensures the cards are held by the EU ( as they are anyway) it will always be difficult to come away with a good deal as all relies on the goodwill of the EU. If you recognise that through article 50 if you do not agree a deal you automatically leave with a hard brexit then the negotiation you are actually in is a deal agreed by the EU or a deeply damaging fracture in your trading relationships and so much else it stands to reason the EU need offer little as most is better than the hard leaving. Article 50 is a very cute idea.

ASLEFshrugged

The "centre ground" has moved considerably to the left since the 2008 crash thanks to a dysfunctional housing market and wages not keeping up with inflation. Corbyn isn't suggesting anything that wouldn't have looked out of place in the 1973 Tory manifesto, it might be "hard left" today but that simply illustrates just how far to the right politics shifted.

Keir Starmer has only been an MP for three and a half years, a bit inexperienced politically to be leader just yet. As for the media both Miliband and Blair were dangerous lefties who would destroy the economy according to the Sun, Express, Mail, etc.

claretandbluesky

But I think KS looks like new blood which much of the middle ground of neutral voters will warm to more than Corbyn who is almost 70 and as far as I know never held a cabinet post. Although some may be undeserved I feel the right wing media have succeeded in casting JC in a particular way and KS may just draw in the small margin needed to make a difference. What I am sure about however is that no one who votes for JC at present is going to vote for anyone else over KS so they will not lose any votes in my view.

claretandbluesky

I think the two most able to fight an election at present are Keir Starmer and Amber Rudd and that would be a good match. She stood in for a debate last time and did well compared to Theresa May who no one should ever allow fight an election again. Interestingly however Rudd's seat is very marginal at present and by no means secure. I felt she was brought back in last week to be a credible future leader, something the Tories are woefully short of. In remembering this is a football forum I would say the Tories are short of anyone who can actually finish, to put the ball in the net. Even if as is likely and JC fights the next election I would say they must make full use of KS and get him everywhere as I think he may be a better finisher than most.

MrsGrey

KC has largely escaped the (right wing and/or gutter press) media eye as a 'target' shall we say. Because, in part, JC has made such an easy one. But I have no doubt that they have a dossier just ready to go, should KC come more into the limelight.

Human rights, his role at the CPS - and everything that was prosecuted or was not prosecuted on his watch, his role at Mishcon de Reya when Gina Miller challenged the govt over Brexit....

(my prediction)

PrestonHammer

Wasn't KS in charge of the CPS when journalists were being charged left, right and centre over phone hacking? The right wing will be trying to find anything they can to smear him if he became leader.

BubblesNeverDies

Not trying to be picky but just to avoid confusion, it's JC and KS. It's just that every time I see KC, I think of KC and the Sunshine Gang, and I don't think they would be the right people to run the country, oh hang on.........nah that would be too weird, or .................................. ;biggrin