How can we measure 'progress' for West Ham?
It's tempting to assume that progress simply equates to finishing higher up the league each year, but this would, imo, lead to inevitable disappointment.
Take a look at these charts.
The first one shows the 'top 4' clubs over the last 6 years
The second the teams more regularly 5th-8th over the same period
It should be clear from this that expecting constant improvement in league placement is simply unrealistic.
The second chart is the one I think we should focus on.
In recent seasons, outside the top 4 only Spurs have shown a consistency in terms of league placings, and that has varied between 6th and 3rd.
For me, progress would be to establish ourselves in the 8th to 5th group over a number of seasons, accepting that sometimes we will go up a position, and sometimes down.
Separately, I would not use 'cup success' as a sign of progress.
We are in a maximum of 3 cup competitions a year. To assume that at some point we should win one is fanciful, imo. There are too many variables outside our control.
Of course if we do win one, ;wahoo , but I don't think it should be used as a criteria for marking our progress.
If we finish top 8 next season, with a +ve GD, and 57 or more points, I'd say we have shown 'progress' even if we finish below this year's spot, as we would have begun to demonstrate consistency of performance over seasons.
Just my onions.
What do you reckon?
Take a look at these charts.
The first one shows the 'top 4' clubs over the last 6 years
The second the teams more regularly 5th-8th over the same period
It should be clear from this that expecting constant improvement in league placement is simply unrealistic.
The second chart is the one I think we should focus on.
In recent seasons, outside the top 4 only Spurs have shown a consistency in terms of league placings, and that has varied between 6th and 3rd.
For me, progress would be to establish ourselves in the 8th to 5th group over a number of seasons, accepting that sometimes we will go up a position, and sometimes down.
Separately, I would not use 'cup success' as a sign of progress.
We are in a maximum of 3 cup competitions a year. To assume that at some point we should win one is fanciful, imo. There are too many variables outside our control.
Of course if we do win one, ;wahoo , but I don't think it should be used as a criteria for marking our progress.
If we finish top 8 next season, with a +ve GD, and 57 or more points, I'd say we have shown 'progress' even if we finish below this year's spot, as we would have begun to demonstrate consistency of performance over seasons.
Just my onions.
What do you reckon?
Comments
I would like to see progress to the Group stages of the Europa.
But in terms of league position top 10 would be acceptable ;ok
Then try and kick on the season after, using the extra revenue and the tv money to try and build and push for the top 6.
#pickled
;lol
1. Not having anything do do with a finish lower that 10 for a couple of season in a row.
2. Then each year getting a little further in the Europe league.
3. Keeping our young talent and seeing them grow into first team regulars for us.
and the end of the world as we know it....
But surely points gained is dependent on what other teams do as well?
And you could argue that if refereeing decisions had been different, we could have collected another 6-9 points without having played any differently.
And does using more points as the measure of progress imply that fewer points is us going backwards?
I suppose I'm trying to argue that we can end up with fewer points from one season to another, but I can still see genuine ways in which we are making progress.
I guess I'm partly worried that increased expectations will lead to unrealistic targets, which we will almost inevitably fail to achieve (just look at pretty much every other team in the PL) and then start the managerial musical chairs that so many clubs seem to go in for.
But I agree that we need to manage our expectations. I for one think we'll struggle to replicate this season, in terms of points and position, simply because I think the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool, Man U and Everton will not have as bad a season as they did last time round.
;ok
Clearly, more points implies progress, I guess I'm just trying to look at other ways to measure it, when we end up with fewer points at some point, as we must, almost inevitably do.
For example:
1- In the league - points/final position/+GD/style of play
2- Revenue - TV monies/sponsorship/net spend (actually selling our weaker players for more than we paid for them)
3- Youth development - bringing more youth through/selling weaker youth to lower leagues for more income
4- European qualification - regular/progress further in comp
5- Reputation - increase world wide exposure/style of play (I remember when we used to be a lot of peoples second team)
I am sure there are lots more but I had a few too many beers whilst watching the dross on show from England last night so my brain is struggling to engage.
;ok
And for me, season on season, it might be only one or two of those, but could still be considered 'progress'.
If Leicester repeat their title winning feat then I'll change my mind, but for now I can only see there being a return to the 'status quo' of the top 5 or 6 clubs, which will mean that clubs like ours, in most seasons, will have a 'ceiling' we can't normally rise above.
I think that if we can maintain anywhere near the form we showed this season into next, whilst settling in at our new stadium and the continued development behind the scenes then we will still have progressed massively just not in league position.
I think anything 8th and above is very good and that we are building on each season. As you say we need to show 3-5 years of consistently preforming as we have this season whilst strengthening the club overall and then we can look at the next step up.
I think a good example of progress is a club like Stoke. They have realistically amended their expectations and targets slowly since being promoted. Following from Grey's example, look at the chart.
Stoke had 5 seasons of consolidation in this division, before they changed manager and have expectations of being an upper mid table club. I would suggest that they are probably hoping they can move into the 5-8 bracket this season or next.
Compare that to us. We've consolidated for three years (Sam's reign) before we decided we wanted to achieve more and made the change. So we've had 2 years less of 'survival mode' than Stoke, and have had 1 season of top half finishes compared to 3 for them. Yet we think we should be in a position to maintain this already?
Yes, we are different clubs. Different resources, reputations, history. However, based on the 'Stoke Model' I would argue that finishing upper mid table (i.e. 8-11) over the next two seasons would be progress.
Why not directly comparable to league position, the higher you place in the league/cups the stronger you are financially and the more money you make from merchandising the more your Club as a 'brand' is performing
I think legaue position is the easiest to judge, not points as points is more erratic and at the end of the day finishing 7th with 60 points is as good as finishing 7th with 50 points
3 years in the top half would be progress, so we are a 'top table' club as I don't think it's controversial saying that we are viewed as a 'mid table' club atml
The logical step is getting Europa league through league positions, that means we are the level below champions league clubs which is where we wanna be in 2/3 years imo
I like to think we can push Southampton and Liverpool for the Europa spots. For me progress would be to get into Europa by league or be up and around there like now where we fell short by 2 or 3 points.
I would say we regressed if we fall short of a Europa place by a 10 to 12 point margin.
Just because it happened this year doesn't mean it's something we can immediately replicate.
#metastats ;wahoo
#statlyfe
#graphlyfe
I agree we should be ambitious, but there's surely a level of realism built into it. I think we should be aiming to be a CL club, but I don't think that is a realistic aim for 5 or so years time.
I'm ambitious for the club, but want us to do it in stages. Why does it have to be CL or Pulis? Are you saying there's nothing in between?