The relegation battle - get out of my league!

grey_til_I_dye

Thought this deserved it's own thread, as, tbh, there's not much to discuss about the top end, and little potential excitement/interest.

MunichHammer

I think we will need a lot more than 3 more wins to be safe. There are so many teams in it atm that I reckon the final total needed to stay in the PL could be pretty high.

imagelost

MunichHammer said:

I think we will need a lot more than 3 more wins to be safe. There are so many teams in it atm that I reckon the final total needed to stay in the PL could be pretty high.

A lot of them teams after play each other

MunichHammer

They probably all will at some point ;wink
But I still expect the points total for safety to be close to 40 if not above. Just don't let it be us who go down with 42 points. Not again!

Adam

I’m looking at the 40 point mark, so 15 more points. That’s 3 wins and 6 draws or 4 wins and 3 draws from the last 15 games. If we can get 2 wins from the next 4 winnable games, that will put us in a good position.

For the last 11 games, there are maybe 5 winnable games.

ValiantIron

I looked previously at points needed to survive and eventually managed to sort out some sort of logic.

If a team or two gets cut adrift, then there are more points for the other teams and the points needed to survive goes up.

If everybody is in the mix then the points are well shared out and the total needed for survival actually goes down.

For reference, Euroclubindex is currently predicting 36 points as the final total for both the last relegated and first safe club this year.

buffybegood

Most seasons 37 points is enough to stay up, obviously we know better than most that it's no guarantee, but that's only 12 points away. Hopefully we can get most of those in the next few games, and then pick up a few more in Feb and early March as we've a tough run in.

MarkNobleLocalHero

ValiantIron ;ok
It seems obvious to me that the more the points are shared amongst relegation battlers the lower the total required for survival as opposed to MunichHammer's prediction.

MunichHammer

I just think there are too many teams in it at the moment. No team is clearly being left behind and they seem to be getting points off the top dogs, too. I won't be relaxing until we are either mathmatically safe or we have 43 points.

grey_til_I_dye

36 has been the safety mark average for the last 10 seasons.

It's only been higher than that twice in that period - 39 and 37.

Current bottom 6

Ave pts/game- ave to get to 36 - ave last 5 games.

Swans - .74/game - 1.26 - 1.0
WBA - .825/game - 1.26 - 1.0
Sroke - .90/ game - 1.0 - 0.8
Soton - .91/game - 1.1 - 0.6
Brighton/Newcastle - 1/game - 1.0 - 1.6

It's hard to see 4 of those sides getting past 36 points.

ValiantIron

NobleWorldClass said:

ValiantIron ;ok
It seems obvious to me that the more the points are shared amongst relegation battlers the lower the total required for survival as opposed to MunichHammer's prediction.

It was obvious to me, after I did the analysis! ;doh

grey_til_I_dye

(Comments split from Next 8 thread.)

grey_til_I_dye

Assuming a baseline of 36 points for survival, here's how the bottom 10 teams are faring:



No surprise that the bottom 4 currently have the worst ave/game for recent matches, and it would be no surprise if 3 of those 4 were the relegated teams this season.

It's actually a decent start for Lambert, as Stoke don't play any of the top 6 in their next 6 games, but if he doesn't get them going by then, then I think they are probably gone.

Bazshuayi

Read across to Stokes top 6 still to play.... Is it just me that sees a laugh 'HAHA'...

#Nurse

MrsGrey

Newcastle, Huddersfield and Brighton have them all to play.

Huddersfield the most A and Brighton the most H.

grey_til_I_dye

Still incredibly tight, with just 4 points separating 17th from 10th (Watford are ahead of us by 1 goal in GD).



Good game weeks for Stoke (although Huddersfield at home would probably be the game any manager would pick atm), and especially for Swansea.

Along with Bournemouth, we continue to have the best 'last 6' form.

thornburyiron

What we need is the best "next 6" form and then again for the 6 after that.
I can't remember the last season where there hasn't been a team who you could say needed a miraculous run of results of survive.
Two weekends of the kind of results we've been having could see 10th/11th and 12th changing places with 18th/19th and 20th.
It's been a weird season but exciting although I'd rather be on the outside looking in than on the inside looking out.

grey_til_I_dye

Forgot to post revised table - done now.

For me, if we average 1.5 points for the next 6 games we are safe.

thornburyiron

Grey in your table you need to change our game against Chelsea to A

grey_til_I_dye

;ok

IronHerb

I think you could add Watford and Everton to your table.

TwistandShout

Just 6 points above bottom of the league now... ;puzzled

grey_til_I_dye

Herb

Yeah, I just used the bottom 10 as a cut-off point.

IronHerb

I know you like a table. ;biggrin

grey_til_I_dye

Only cos they are full of stats! ;biggrin

IronHerb

The more the merrier surely. ;lol

IronHerb

And I won't call you Shirley again. ;biggrin

Adam

grey_til_I_dye said:

For me, if we average 1.5 points for the next 6 games we are safe.

That would put us on 35 points with 8 games to go. Out of the last 8 games, our winnable fixtures are Southampton, Stoke (and to a lesser extent Everton and Leicester). So we would need a handful of points from those games.

I think 9 points from the next 6 games is vital. If we don’t get that tally, we are in serious trouble, imo.

So, it’s the worst time to have Lanzini, Arnie and Carroll out injured.

grey_til_I_dye

Adam

I still think 36 points will be the cutoff, so if we get to 35 with 8 games to go, I'll be pretty confident of our survival.

IronHerb

Sorry Adam but what do you mean by winnable? ;hmm

Adam

Err...games we can win? The other games are against the top 6. That the games are ‘realistically’ winnable was implied.