The relegation battle - get out of my league!
Thought this deserved it's own thread, as, tbh, there's not much to discuss about the top end, and little potential excitement/interest.
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But I still expect the points total for safety to be close to 40 if not above. Just don't let it be us who go down with 42 points. Not again!
If a team or two gets cut adrift, then there are more points for the other teams and the points needed to survive goes up.
If everybody is in the mix then the points are well shared out and the total needed for survival actually goes down.
For reference, Euroclubindex is currently predicting 36 points as the final total for both the last relegated and first safe club this year.
It seems obvious to me that the more the points are shared amongst relegation battlers the lower the total required for survival as opposed to MunichHammer's prediction.
It's only been higher than that twice in that period - 39 and 37.
Current bottom 6
Ave pts/game- ave to get to 36 - ave last 5 games.
Swans - .74/game - 1.26 - 1.0
WBA - .825/game - 1.26 - 1.0
Sroke - .90/ game - 1.0 - 0.8
Soton - .91/game - 1.1 - 0.6
Brighton/Newcastle - 1/game - 1.0 - 1.6
It's hard to see 4 of those sides getting past 36 points.
(Comments split from Next 8 thread.)
No surprise that the bottom 4 currently have the worst ave/game for recent matches, and it would be no surprise if 3 of those 4 were the relegated teams this season.
It's actually a decent start for Lambert, as Stoke don't play any of the top 6 in their next 6 games, but if he doesn't get them going by then, then I think they are probably gone.
#Nurse
Huddersfield the most A and Brighton the most H.
Good game weeks for Stoke (although Huddersfield at home would probably be the game any manager would pick atm), and especially for Swansea.
Along with Bournemouth, we continue to have the best 'last 6' form.
I can't remember the last season where there hasn't been a team who you could say needed a miraculous run of results of survive.
Two weekends of the kind of results we've been having could see 10th/11th and 12th changing places with 18th/19th and 20th.
It's been a weird season but exciting although I'd rather be on the outside looking in than on the inside looking out.
For me, if we average 1.5 points for the next 6 games we are safe.
Yeah, I just used the bottom 10 as a cut-off point.
I still think 36 points will be the cutoff, so if we get to 35 with 8 games to go, I'll be pretty confident of our survival.
I'd be very surprised if we couldn't get 4 wins from our last 14 games, and even more surprised if 38 didn't keep a team up.
Shame we’ve dropped a few points in games late on (Burnley away, Palace away, Bournemouth away, Spurs away etc). That’s an extra 8 points and we’d be on 34 and safe.
I think Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield are the ones on the decline. But you could look at all the other teams and say ‘I can’t see them going down’.
We are going to struggle big time over the next few weeks. Make no mistake. It’s not going to be pretty with only Hernandez and Ayew to select as attacking options. I’d be happy to be on 30 points by end of Feb.