We're not going down! Who is? From fantasy to reality...

Lukerz

Still not safe though.

We lose to Spurs. Likely.

Hull will win next week at home to Sunderland.

Even if Swansea lose today, they have Everton at home next. Then Sunderland. They finish with WBA.

Palace is interesting. Everybody thinks they're safe now on 38 (even Sam said it). They have the Manchester clubs away, with currently one fit CB. All on their game with Hull then. Proper six pointer.

grey_til_I_dye

Lukerz

Not mathematically, but I don't see any danger for us whatsoever.

To catch us, with our current points, Swansea need 9/12 from games with

Man Utd, Everton, Sunderland and West Brom.

Or Boro have to get 12/12.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

Yeoldhammer

Boro against City today so they lose that then they cant overtake us. Swansea are away to Man Utd so if they lose that they Swansea need to win their remaining 3 games.

Lukerz

But given two are against Sunderland (a) and WBA (h), it's not impossible for them to get 6 from those two. That leaves Everton as the only tricky game to negotiate.

9 points from 9 at any other time of the season? Almost impossible. 9 points now, when it's do or die and all three have nothing to play for? Doable.

Imagine if they nicked a surprise win today?

Yeoldhammer

Its possible but we will see in 2 weeks time with 2 games left where we stand going into the final game. You never know Burnley vs West Ham could be a "Wigan / Sheffield United / West Ham" scenario

Lukerz

I'm just planning for the possibility of us losing to Spurs and Liverpool. Leaving us on 39 from 37. We finish with Burnley. Burnley could still be in it, although unlikely given their next two games are WBA and Bournemouth.

Hull, given their run in, could easily be on 38 from 37. Maybe even 40 if they beat Palace after Sunderland. They finish with Spurs at home.

Swansea could be on 37 from 37. Needing a win at home to WBA to have a chance of survival.

Palace could be on 38/39 from 37 but with a better GD than us.

Lukerz

Let's just not get complacent. Ideally let's stretch our unbeaten four game run to six and we won't have a problem on GW 38.

Just hope Slaven doesn't drag us into it on the final weekend due to his cautiousness over the last two weeks.

IronHerb

We won these 3 games last season, haven't lost in 4 when posters were saying we wouldn't get another point this season, have back to back clean sheets and there is still negativity.

I give up.

;angry

Lukerz

Not negativity at all. I even said it was a good point yesterday on the thread. Other than throwing away 2 points at the most inept side in the league we have done well over the last month.

Saying 'still not safe' isn't negative. It's fact.

IronHerb

Then why not post if we win all three we could finish in 8th?

grey_til_I_dye

Herb

You can only call it as you see it, can't you?

I've had two occasions where I have wondered where we would get another point from, based on the performance (or more accurately, lack of performance) that I saw.

Not sure that is overly negative.

Lukerz

Herb - because I think that is more unlikely than the scenario I offered, considering we play two of the top three.

If we were playing Watford and WBA at home instead, I would not have posted above.

grey_til_I_dye

Swans on 32 are 7 behind us with 3 to play, and a -14 GD, so effectively they need 8 from 9, whcih means they have to win their last 3 games. assuming we were to take no more points, which is much less likely than a couple of weeks ago.

Yeoldhammer

Beat spurs job done

grey_til_I_dye

Yeold ;ok

baracks_a_hammer

There's a good chance we will only get a maximum of one more point, however I still think there is no way on earth we are going down.

grey_til_I_dye

baracks

with the GD differential with Swansea that would almost certainly do it, unless they can get back -14GD in 3 games.

That said, I agree, we aren't anywhere near going down now.

baracks_a_hammer

We may well even get a result v Spurs because after today's Chelsea result, they will know their goose is cooked and once again their brilliant best has been shown to be not enough

Moore_than_a_nick

Before the Middlesborough-City game, both Boro and Swansea could have overtaken us by winning all their remaining games. Thanks to Jesus's late equaliser, Boro can no longer catch us. But the Swans don't have the hardest run-in, meaning I'd like to see us get the requisite 2 points asap...

Hull would need to win at least two of their last three to catch us, but their next two games are against Sunderland and Palace - not impossible at all.

So our players will probably still be feeling rather twitchy, specially given our next two opponents. We really don't want to leave it to the last game against Burnley.

IronHerb

But Palace have to play United and City away and Hull at home. Worse than our run in imo.

Swansea have Everton at home so again not straightforward.

Calm down, calm down.

baracks_a_hammer

It would take a sequence of extraordinary events to see us get relegated and I personally just do not see this happening

SuzanneClaret

Moore_than_a_nick

Oh I'm pretty sure we'll stay up. But I'm also not discounting the significant probability of our losing to Spurs and Liverpool and then being in a right scrap on the last day.

MunichHammer

But if Hull beat Palace that would mean that Palace need to get points off the Manchester games. I am confident we are safe and pretty annoyed that Leicester made it.

Lukerz

I just don't think it is impossible that we could go down. It's the next two that scare me.

Make no mistake that two 0-1 (which wouldn't be bad results tbf) defeats could well see us needing something at Burnley to avoid the drop.

I'm confident we won't lose 3/3, but I won't discount the possibility of relegation. I don't feel safe yet.

Swansea's next game is huge for us. Anything but a win for them and we're safe. But if they get 3 points against Everton (their last six home form is won 4, drew 1 and lost 1), we are back in the scrap well and truly given their final two games. I mean you've only got to look at Everton's last two performances and general away form (4 wins all season) to be slightly nervous.

And, unfortunately, both Hull and Swansea have Sunderland to play in their last three. The way they've been this season you may as well add 3 points to both their totals.

Assuming we don't get anything against Spurs the day before. But even a draw and a loss leaves us struggling should Swansea do the business against the Toffees.

Bazshuayi

Luke, are you suggesting that I will actually lose the match thread duty? ;nonono

baracks_a_hammer

The most entertaining thing about this season is Baz's match threads so much like Nordveit, he should stay in situ till this season is done.

Lukerz

Baz - your match thread are A* ;ok

So hopefully not ;lol

grey_til_I_dye

baz

We may ask you to stay on regardless, unless someone else is strongly minded to start one.

You enjoy it, and so do we, so what's not to like?

baracks_a_hammer

Irrespective of whether his match threads are a work of art (which they are) Baz should stay on as he holds the honour of being the only one to find a way to stop lukaku scoring against us