Get Out of My League! - The dreaded drop, and who's for it?
Back after no demand whatsoever, this year it is a pleasure not to have a dog in the fight.
In spite of the repetition of 'the magic 40' by pundits, players and maangers, the most common safety margin for a good few seasons now has been 36 points.
In that context, I've assembled this year's runners and riders to include all teams on 27 or less.
I don't think it is too radical to suggest that Huddersfield are gone. They need 6 draws and 6 wins just to get to 35 points (or 8 wins and 4 losses...), and given that they have picked up 1 point in the last 10 games, I think that is a tad unlikely.
Fulham are 8 points off safety, and 5 losses and 1 win in the last 6 hardly suggests they are going to pull that back. So, while it is perhaps too early to write them off for definite, I think their prospects are slimmer than a very slim thing on a diet.
Of the rest, Brighton are the team currently looking most vulnerable, with just 1 point from the last 6 games. They are the only team in that group whose current 6 or 10 game points average is lower than they need to achieve 36 points.
Remaining fixtures (if I've copied them across right...)
In spite of the repetition of 'the magic 40' by pundits, players and maangers, the most common safety margin for a good few seasons now has been 36 points.
In that context, I've assembled this year's runners and riders to include all teams on 27 or less.
I don't think it is too radical to suggest that Huddersfield are gone. They need 6 draws and 6 wins just to get to 35 points (or 8 wins and 4 losses...), and given that they have picked up 1 point in the last 10 games, I think that is a tad unlikely.
Fulham are 8 points off safety, and 5 losses and 1 win in the last 6 hardly suggests they are going to pull that back. So, while it is perhaps too early to write them off for definite, I think their prospects are slimmer than a very slim thing on a diet.
Of the rest, Brighton are the team currently looking most vulnerable, with just 1 point from the last 6 games. They are the only team in that group whose current 6 or 10 game points average is lower than they need to achieve 36 points.
Remaining fixtures (if I've copied them across right...)
Comments
The one thing I think is missing from this is a specific column detailing what impact West Ham can have. Who do we have to play? Who can we condemn?
I've changed the remaining fixtures graphic to highlight who/when we play.
This has always been my measure of success. Consistent and consecutive top 10 finishes plus safe by February/March.
Forget Europe. I’ll be happy when we can do 3 top 10 finishes in a row.
Well done board ,, pelly and noble.
Going down
Huddies
Fulham
Cardifffffffffff
I also think Brighton might go with them, as it is very close with Brighton
having the worst form at the moment.
Gutted Huddersfield are going down but hey-ho it happens.
Fulham / Cardiff / Southampton / Burnley / Palace / Brighton / Newcastle. Any of them 2 can go and I would be delighted. Wouldn't mind Burnley staying up if I was pushed to make a decision out of all of them who I would want to stay up.
I want Brighton to stay up because we've finally got out of the habit of losing to them and we're due a win soon.
I have a soft spot for Newcastle as my uncle (Dad's sister's husband) played for them in the 50s.
There's a Burnley fan down my local, he's miserable enough without relegation to add to his woes. They've not lost since they dropped Joe Hart for Tom Heaton so I think they're safe.
I have absolutely no opinion whatsoever on Southampton.
Palace are defensively decent at home and Zaha + Bats ;weep will score the goals for them
I'd prefer Southampton to go down and their next seven fixtures are I think the toughest (apart from Fulham at home) to get points from.
I admit to finding it hard to see where Cardiff are going to get enough wins/points to stay up but Southampton are my hope to help them.
Straight fight between Southampton and Cardiff IMO (Fulham and Hudds are gone)
Obviously Cardiff have the Colin factor, so will be happy enough for either of those 2 to join Huddersfield and Fulham.
Barring a miracle run, I am going to assume Fulham and Huddersfield are gone, so won't be looking at them from now on.
A bad weekend for Cardiff and Southampton, as they lost out, and had to watch Burnley, Palace and Newcastle all pick up wins. Brighton didn't play, and include Huddersfield, Cardiff and Southampton in the next 5 games, in what could be their season defining run.
Apart from Brighton, all the other teams have a point per game ratio that would take them above 36.
Time for the Toffees to remember where the big stringy thing is...
Next 4 weeks will determine the majority of teams fate with a few 6 pointers.
I don't like Warnock, but I think Cardiff have handled this season pretty well given the various incidents they've been involved in.
Newcastle just signed Almiron from Atlanta, and I have a friend who is a huge fan of Atlanta and Almiron and I know they'll be following with interest so I hope he does well.
I know lots of people don't like them, but I like Burnley, and the fact they have a predominantely British workmanlike squad is a bit of a novelty that I like.
I like Chris Hughton and Brighton are very non offensive to me.
And Palace... I mean... I really don't like Zaha very much, but otherwise I don't have a problem with them either. I like Roy, I like Tomkins, I only know one Palace fan personally and he's a nice guy so I don't mind them.
You won't like him when he's tetchy!
#mission