The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

thornburyiron

When you get a PM who goes into talks saying "we need to renegotiate but I'm strongly in favour of staying in anyway" what sort of deal are you likely to get.
Would you go to buy a house and say I will offer you X but I'm going to buy it anyway and expect to get it for X.

imagelost

We want out

imagelost

If not why give us the vote?

baracks_a_hammer

I'll give another example of the EU at its best. We need to pay anti-dumping duty on products supplied by one of our far Eastern suppliers. However as this supplier is on an approved list the level of this duty payable is reduced. This supplier had the "temerity" to change its legal name which then meant a whole raft of EU paperwork was required to keep the lower duty. The paperwork has been sitting on the desk of some pencil pusher in Luxembourg for TWO years unactioned meaning we continue to wrongly pay the higher duty (which we have to pass on to the UK public). Moreover, we have no idea who to complain to!! Will your new deal finally get us our (rightful) lower duty Mr Cameron?

MrsGrey

imagelost said:

Stop scare mongring
Give proof are shut up

Is that addressed to people on here, or politicians?



If politicians, is it addressed to both sides or just one?

PrestonHammer1974

I wasn't sure beforehand but the EU and Angela Merkel in particular made such a horlicks of the refugee crisis that has tipped me towards the OUT camp.

OutcastLondoner

claretandbluesky

I think fear will play a huge part in how people vote as it is a large motivator for human beings in all decision making. I also don't believe many people will be informed when voting with regard figures etc, these figures may not even be available. It may come down to headlines and fears.

The In camp will say we need stay in because if we don't we will be at a huge disadvantage with regard trade and relations with our neighbours, which will cost jobs. The immediate aftermath would result in the markets quite possibly raising our borrowing rates, which could result in a run on sterling as well at some point and interest rates rising either way. It will also likely bring about another Scottish referendum in the not too distant future and break up the UK.

The out camp will likely play on the fear that without taking control of our borders again we will be over run with migrants who will bleed us dry. They will suggest we will no longer exist as sovereign nation in control of its own laws and decision making. That the UK along with all other EU nations will become a mixture of all of Europe governed by Brussells.

On the positive side the IN's will say we can prosper in Europe without taking on ever closer union and be able to reap the benefits and cope quite readily with the downside.

The out's will suggest we can have the best of both worlds in that we can have a trade deal but control our own borders and laws.

There is one aside with regard the Scottish question that is interesting. The SNP suggest that leaving the EU should trigger a new referendum, so there will be many pro independence supporters voting to leave. But should the results show an overwhelming appetite for leaving within Scotland itself it will be hard to claim Scotland wants to be part of the EU and should be able to leave us to do so.

AdMeus_CaputFilius

claretandbluesky said:

There is one aside with regard the Scottish question that is interesting. The SNP suggest that leaving the EU should trigger a new referendum, so there will be many pro independence supporters voting to leave. But should the results show an overwhelming appetite for leaving within Scotland itself it will be hard to claim Scotland wants to be part of the EU and should be able to leave us to do so.

The same though had occurred to me, if say 60% of Scots vote to leave the EU then how can the SNP call for another independence vote based on the UK leaving the EU.

TBH I do not think Salmond/Sturgeon have much credibility at the moment, I would like someone to grill them about where they think Scotland would be now if they had got independence, given the crash in the oils prices. During the debates it was clear they based a huge amount of their finances on income from 'Scottish' oil. When it was put to Salmond (I think it was) about what would happen if the price dropped below a certain level (which it did long ago) and he just laughed it off - so there was no alternative.

back on track...... I am fence sitting at the moment, trying to look beyond the rubbish being spouted by both sides.

If you choose to believe the 'In' camp, if we say out 3 million people will lose their jobs almost overnight etc., etc. - utter tosh, there will be a two year exit negotiation period with the UK Govt reps and two appointed by the EU (probably a German and a French persons, after which it will go to the EU Parliament for a vote (this could go back and forth for another year or two) before the deal is reached. Does anyone seriously think anything will change much before that? Trade will continue under the existing rules during that period, also we have a trading deficit with the EU, does anyone think the companies in the EU are going to turn their backs on all the money they earn from us - of course they won't.

I am also fairly confident that where there is any signs of trade being affected, the UK businesses will be looking to strengthen and increase existing trade with countries and partners outside of the EU to compensate for the losses.

On the other hand, I am concerned that some areas where there has been improvement through EU Legislation may be negatively affected (Workers rights/equalities, Environmental legislation etc.).

One thing that does irk me is the people in power in other countries throwing their weight around like Prominent German MP Gunther Krichbaum who said the UK “cannot survive” on its own and warned of devastating trade tariffs on British exports should Britain vote to leave the union and the American who said something regarding trade as well - unfortunately one comment I heard more than once was that if anything it reinforced the reasons to vote out.

thornburyiron

The US should keep their mouths shut. They are the most insular nation on earth and wouldn't consider any kind of union with countries bordering them.

chicagohammer

everything has a silver lining - if we do vote ourselves out of the EU - maybe we can turn to the special relationship we have with the USA and President Trump.

;sofa

AdMeus_CaputFilius

chicagohammer said:

everything has a silver lining - if we do vote ourselves out of the EU - maybe we can turn to the special relationship we have with the USA and President Trump.

;sofa

AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! ;run

thornburyiron

Even Americans aren't stupid enough to vote him in are they? It just shows how useless Obama has been as a president the last 2 years.

baracks_a_hammer

Thorn

They did manage to vote in George W.

Twice.

Moojor

I'm starting to look in to the actual reasons for staying or leaving as I'm pretty uninformed about any sort of actual facts about the possible outcomes of either.

But currently in the "in" camp, mostly because I can't stand the term "Brexit". Why the hell do we have this need to combine multiple words in to one?

deehammer

Moojor
This is "media speak" not anything else!

TheMadcapLaughs

As much as I hate to ally myself with the likes of Farage, Duncan-Smith, Gove, Boris, the EDL and the hole screaming gamut of flag waving, jingoistic, insular Trumpesque type people (shudders) I find myself coming down firmly on the "out" side. For as much as I would generally take the opposing view to anything and everything all of the above believe in and stand for, I find the EU, as it currently stands, probably the most undemocratic, stagnant, bloated, gluttonous, behemoth of an "organisation" in the history of such organisations. A single, borderless market, using a single common currency is a simple and worthy idea. It doesn`t need thousands and thousands of grey suits riding on a runaway gravy train to make it work. The level of waste, bureaucracy and for want of a better word gumpf generated by Brussels is mind numbingly staggering. There is one thing I hate above all else, and that is piffle, I am sorry, but the EU is awash with piffle, I would like my country to distance itself from Brussels and this excess of Euorpiffle and then once out take a long hard look at its own layers of needless, pointless bureaucracy, quangos, committees and government and wield the axe accordingly. I have always supported closer links with Europe, however, once the men in grey latch on, it is only a matter of time before these leech like creatures infest, multiply and suck the life out of what should be, and could be a worthy and above all simple animal. For this reason, a big OUT. ;scarf

MrsGrey

So can I put you down as 'undecided'?

Expat_Hammer

;lol

EastcoteHammer

Madcap lol

EastcoteHammer

grey_til_I_dye said:

Eastcote

Are you honestly saying that you expect the majority of people who vote on this issue to have fully informed themselves?

You might just as easily be asked, where is your evidence for that statement?

Grey,

I think it's your responsibility to do so if you are going to vote don't you? After all it's a serious choice we're being asked to make. Are you suggesting that people can't be trusted to make the choice? the same people that elect UK Governments every 5 years? Are you also suggesting voters vote on party lines?

At the end of the day it boils down to what is best for the country as a whole and I think it will be the business argument that sways it to a stay in vote.

grey_til_I_dye

Eastcote

I absolutely agree that it is the responsibility of those who will vote to inform themselves to the best of their ability.

I also don't think most of them will.

Are you suggesting that people can't be trusted to make the choice?

Yes.

the same people that elect UK Governments every 5 years?

Yes (although given the bizarre nature of the UK election system, what tends to happen is that 2/3 of the people who vote don't end up with the government they tried to elect.)

Are you also suggesting voters vote on party lines?

Yes

EastcoteHammer

Well I must say that does surprise me from you.

grey_til_I_dye

Eastcote

Not sure why?

EastcoteHammer

Grey,

I should of added that I thought you'd have more faith in democracy than that.

simonc

thornburyiron said:

Even Americans aren't stupid enough to vote him in are they? It just shows how useless Obama has been as a president the last 2 years.

Make that 8 thornburyiron, biggest political regret i have, voting for him the first time round, only thing he is good at is spending other peoples money

billybondsbeard

Really good article by Andrew Rawnsley in the Guardian today. Makes the point that about a third of the electorate are defo 'in', another 3rd are defo 'out', and the fight as ever will be among the undecideds. He makes the point that much of the wrangling in Brussels was about £35m of child benefit payments either way, which equates to less than 30 minutes of the govenments annual spend !!!, or a rounding up error in one of Osbournes budgets !.
He takes a look at the so called leaders of the 'out 'campaign , and says do you really want to be associated with the like of Gove, Galloway, and Farage, who are currently all arguing about who's 'out' group will lead the campaign, and thus will get their hands on the funding for TV and Press ads etc.
he asks the question, what happens after a 'no' vote - and that it will be a bit of a gamble, as 'we dont know what we dont know' - to quote Donald Rumsfeld.

We need to be careful - we vote in a government for only around 5 years - this will be a generational choice, and, I think it will be a generational choice in another way, as the vote will go along age based lines, the young voters having known nothing else, and the older voters yearning for the 'good old days'..... ;hmm

baracks_a_hammer

Well wasn't it all supposed to be Armageddon when we decided not to join the Euro? Look how that turned out.

Moojor

Wait, Gove is for us leaving the EU. That's made my decision easy. No need to do any sort of research.
In for me. Anything that fool believes is a good idea can only actually be a very bad idea for everyone else.

grey_til_I_dye

Mooj

Now that's what I call an informed decision... ;wink