Brexit: the next stage. Deal or No Deal? (and the General Election)

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  • edited April 2017

    I think any election fought so shortly after its announcement is pretty flawed, democratically.

    Is it particularly short? In the days before the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, they were always timed by the incumbent party to catch the others on the hop unless they were limping on to the last possible moment, knowing they were going to lose.
    I'm not sure how it compares to others and, of course, you're right but I think generally, it's a real problem. I would say it's the one of many things we'd signal as a major democratic weakness in a lot of other countries but which we don't think about so much because there's no real risk of our democracy falling apart.

    Of course politicians will take advantage of their opposition's weakness but I think it's unhealthy because you have to fit in campaigning, raising awareness about voter registration/importance in voting in some constituencies, tackle voter fatigue etc. I guess this might all come across as kind of academic but I think it does matter because I think this contributes to people viewing politics with such disdain.
    Most elections have been held four or five years after the previous one but there have been some exceptions.

    In October 1922 the Conservatives won a 73 seat majority thanks partly due to the Liberals being split into two parties but Bonar-Law was forced to retire as Prime Minister after being diagnosed with terminal throat cancer after only 211 days in the office, the shortest term and the only PM born outside the UK.

    His successor Stanley Baldwin called an election In December 1923 to give him a mandate and it backfired spectacularly, the Liberals were back together, the Tories lost 86 seats, Labour were the second biggest party and formed a government with the support of the Liberals.

    It didn't last long, in October 1924 the Tories won a stonking 210 majority after a vote of "no confidence" in the Labour government, the Liberals were split again and the Daily Mail published the Zinoviev Letter - a forgery that suggested that Labour were supported by the Soviet Union - four days before the election.

    In 1951 Clem Atlee held an election just 1 year and 8 months after the last as Labour only had a 5 seat majority and he hoped to increase it. Instead Winston Churchill's Tories won a 20 seat majority and Labour didn't win another election for 13 years. This was also the worst election for the old Liberals who were reduced to just 6 seats.

    It was the same story in 1966, Harold Wilson held an election 1 year and 5 months after the last one because Labour only had a 4 seat majority but this time they won by 96 beating Ted Heath's Tories with the Liberals winning 12 seats. Back then Parliament was very much like TV, only three parties had MPs and you could only get three channels.

    On 28 February 1974 Labour won the most seats but were 10 short of a majority and so Wilson formed the "Lib-Lab Pact" with Jeremy Thorpe's 14 Liberals. Just 224 days later on 10 October Labour won a majority of 3 seats, they only time we've ever had two elections in one year.
  • "In October 1924 the Daily Mail published the Zinoviev Letter - a forgery"

    Who'd've thunk it ;biggrin

    They haven't changed much in nearly a century, have they. ;angry
  • Awwww, Clacton just got boring, Carswell is standing down as MP and will be backing the Conservative candidate while Arron Banks wants to re-join UKIP despite saying it was "run like a jumble sale".
  • edited April 2017

    Awwww, Clacton just got boring".

    ;puzzled ;weep ;tumbleweed ;yercoat
  • I see Jeremy is throwing about not quite accurate stats and statements again: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-39666686

    You'd have though he would be getting his team to check their facts a bit better given this is not the first time ( or second, or third even.....), as all this does is damage his and the parties credibility.
  • edited April 2017
    Moving the debate to education is a misstep, I think.

    Nothing good can come from it.

    Nobody will shift their position (party-political wise) at this point, based on education.

    It is an issue too nuanced and complex to be used in an election campaign, imo. You really need issues that can be presented as broad-brush, headline-type soundbites.

    I'm not saying the voters can't understand and cope with a complex issue - but in an election, there's no place for subtlety. Sadly.
  • I could not believe he was talking education today as if someone was going to vote on the issue, this is only about brexit and what type of brexit we negotiate. The only good thing that will come from an early election is that the Corbyn experiment will be will be brought to an end. he was rejected by his own MP's and if the country rejects him they must finally accept that the labour party membership is not enough to deliver power, and as he does not perform as even effective opposition he can provide nothing. The sad thing is most can see this already and do not need a general election to have it proved to them, why couldn't the party members? we needed an effective leader more than at anytime in recent history.

    My hope is that Labour make the move to work with the Lib Dems and greens and tactically step aside when necessary to concentrate the anti tory vote in marginal seats and remain voting areas to prevent the tory majority becoming too big. When labour have the best chance a Lab candidate should be the only one of the three and the same for the others. Sadly with no real opposition thanks to corbyn we stand little chance of ousting the Tories so the tactic must be to prevent the majority being too big.

    As an aside I think May is unstable, something about her when she speaks in public, she is too uneasy, I think she is a strategist rather than a leader, not meant to be out front, and it's taking it's toll. This is why she will not debate as they will tear her apart when she is put off balance, without Nick Timothy there to hold her up. I hope they empty chair her as that will look really bad.
  • edited April 2017

    I could not believe he was talking education today as if someone was going to vote on the issue, this is only about brexit and what type of brexit we negotiate.

    I'm not sure about this.

    However, I think a better campaign could be run on anti-austerity, and placing the blame for the economic situation that (in a large part) led many to vote for Brexit firmly (and correctly) where it belongs. There is obviously a huge amount of anger and frustration about the economy/unequal distribution of wealth/low pay etc ... and if Labour could tap into that, and get the message across that it is a result of Tory policies, while they-Labour-would do something about, I think they might have more success than banging on about class sizes.

    In other words, back to basics.
  • edited April 2017
    And in other news, I see they are again trying to delay taking action on air pollution.

    To remind you:
    The government must make a plan to bring air pollution down to legal levels, which they have been in breach of since 2010. (That's seven years and counting.)

    They dragged their feet for 5 years.

    In April 2015 the Supreme Court ordered the govt to get a plan published by the end of the year.

    That plan was thrown out by the High Court in November 2016, being so bad as to be practically illegal. In its ruling, they also pointed out that the govt had knowingly used dodgy data to support its over-optimistic claims.

    They were given until Monday 24th April (ie next Monday) to publish a new plan.

    Last night they lodged an appeal to delay the deadline and let them bring forward a draft plan in June, after the election.

    By the governments own figures, air pollution causes 50,000 early deaths and £27.5bn in costs every year,.

    As I said, seven years and counting.

    ;angry ;angry ;angry

  • My hope is that Labour make the move to work with the Lib Dems and greens and tactically step aside when necessary to concentrate the anti tory vote in marginal seats and remain voting areas to prevent the tory majority becoming too big. When labour have the best chance a Lab candidate should be the only one of the three and the same for the others. Sadly with no real opposition thanks to corbyn we stand little chance of ousting the Tories so the tactic must be to prevent the majority being too big.

    But you can't enter an election letting everyone know you cant win, even if it looks the most likely case.
  • I could not believe he was talking education today as if someone was going to vote on the issue, this is only about brexit and what type of brexit we negotiate.

    Wrong, that is what Theresa May wants people to think but this isn't another referendum, this is a General Election and we are electing a parliament. That is why we need to talk about education, the NHS, housing, transport, social care and everything else rather than just focusing on Europe.
  • I wont say you are wrong Aslef but I will disagree with your opinion. I think Brexit is what most people perceive as the lever which will resolve or ruin the things such as Education, NHS and housing etc, for remainers the economy underpins all of them and so if that tanks then those things suffer, some brexiters would claim that immigration causes overload on such things and control of immigration will improve the situation, they also tend claim at least publicly the economy won't tank.

    As I have said previously the election will present many voters with difficult choices but I essentially feel that they will vote for who is most likely to deliver the brexit they want as to vote against the party who is going to support your view in that is almost voting to hinder their ability to implement or resist brexit and that issue is dwarfing every other issue as far as I can gather.
  • I actually think he's right, though it has to be broader than education. I think he's going for the "I'll fight for the ordinary people" stance.

    I think any campaign fought by the Labour Party on Brexit will lose. More than a third of Labour voters voted to leave: you potentially lost them by focusing on Brexit but might be able to keep them and win over others with a broader campaign.
  • Labour going for a certain demographic with the Home nations saints day national holiday idea. Fair enough. But again, a bit peripheral to the big issues?
  • CBS - Brexit is only dwarfing other issues because the media are going along with the Tory agenda of not talking about those other issues. By fixating on Brexit they are able to ignore that austerity is exacerbating decades of neglect and creeping privatisation, the NHS is failing because of Brexit, the NHS has been gradually eroded since 1990 and the Tories aren't going to stop until we have a poor copy of the US private healthcare system.

    The Conservatives seem to have little interest in conserving

    Mrs Grey - a more useful idea would be making the 8 public holidays we already have paid, at the moment its up to employers whether or not Bank Holidays are taken as part of the 28 days statutory paid leave. Also do we really need any more days off in Spring, we already get 4 of them between March and May, this would put it up to 7 out of 12!

    If we're going to change bank holidays move August Bank Holiday back to the first Monday in August where it used to be until 1965 and where it still is in Scotland, Ireland and elsewhere in Europe. The weather is always better at the start of the August. In fact lets have two August Bank Holidays, one at the start and one at the end. Forget Spring.
  • edited April 2017
    Aslef ;ok

    I think it is less the practical issues (ie pay, distribution of hols ) that Labour are hoping will be popular, and more the idea of St Georges Day being a national holiday in England. That will (as I say) play well with a certain demographic that would normally vote Tory. At least, I think that's what they're hoping, and I think the other nations' national day proposal are just an opportunistic add-on.

    (Me, cyncical?)
  • Mrs G - there are plenty of people in the rest of the UK with Irish connections who would love a day off for Paddy's Day (and maybe the day after to recover.......)

    Personally I'd go for 6th November, that way we could all stay up late watching fireworks and not have to go to work the next day plus it would give us a day off between August Bank Holiday and Christmas.

    Not that I get Bank Holidays off apart from Christmas and there's rumours they want to reintroduce a Christmas service on the Tube.

    The last time we did that was 1979 btw

  • Personally I'd go for 6th November

    Glad you care so much about my birthday.
  • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39698465

    This would seem a sensible way to go, he will likely find a way to mess it up but at least he is trying to think outside the box the tories have pushed him into since brexit.
  • So where is the protection for Brits abroad? The Labour spokesman just said on the BBC, regarding this Euro citizens issue, " if you'r nice to people they will be nice to you" in respect of the EU automatically reciprocating this move.

    Naive?
  • IronHerb said:

    So where is the protection for Brits abroad? The Labour spokesman just said on the BBC, regarding this Euro citizens issue, " if you'r nice to people they will be nice to you" in respect of the EU automatically reciprocating this move.

    Naive?

    Halfway down the article CBS provided a link to
    Guarantee the legal status of the three million EU nationals living in the UK on its first day in office

    Press for a reciprocal guarantee for the 1.2 million Britons living on the continent
    Its helps if you read the whole thing.

  • Can't say I agree with that approach in politics. It should be a Mutual agreement by both sides. "the if your nice they will be nice to you" doesn't work in politics.
  • As someone who lives abroad but is not aloud to vote, I hope more than expect someone to think of me....
  • Vorse, why aren't you allowed to vote? Didn't the '15 year rule' get scrapped?
  • Hi Mrs Grey as far as I know not, I did a investigation last time for the Brexit vote.

    Has it changed since?? I will have a look. I know there was a petition which I signed to raise this in Parliament.

    I am actually now considering moving back just to be able to start voting...
  • Can't say I agree with that approach in politics. It should be a Mutual agreement by both sides. "the if your nice they will be nice to you" doesn't work in politics.

    Whoever is in No.10 after 8 June won't make the decision on the status of UK citizens living in the EU, that decision will be made by the EU countries so there's no point Labour making promises about UK citizens in the EU that they can't keep.
    MrsGrey said:

    Vorse, why aren't you allowed to vote? Didn't the '15 year rule' get scrapped?

    The 15 year rule is still in place

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/21/britons-abroad-denied-uk-general-election-vote-tories

    The Tories said they'd scrap it last October but they've not got around to it yet

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/expats-given-vote-for-life-uk-elections-government-says
  • Aslef ;ok

    I knew it was being scrapped, but had assumed it would have been done by now.
  • Mrs G - the wheels of government turn slowly.......
  • So annoying, I bought into the idea of living aboard but still contributing to the UK...
  • Halfway down the article CBS provided a link to
    Guarantee the legal status of the three million EU nationals living in the UK on its first day in office

    Press for a reciprocal guarantee for the 1.2 million Britons living on the continent
    Its helps if you read the whole thing.



    You can press as much as you like but when you have already ceded one of your bargaining chips it makes it all the more difficult.
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